Texas Fall-2016

[weatherdude1108]

So quiet in this thread.
*crickets chirp*

[Yukon Cornelius]

Cool day of low to mid 60s tomorrow and then a warm weekend and it seems the 90s return for a couple days early next week. This weather is bipolar.

[Tireman4]

The last vestiges of Summer before Fall takes it firm hold. Always happens. I just have to be patient. Our time is coming.

[Ntxw]

Bipolar is right. Here in NTX cold front is on the way after a warm day. Cooler and rainy the next couple of days and gradual warm up through middle of next week. Then Euro and it's ensembles have been pretty consistent on traversing a big ULL/trough across the southern plains with perhaps wet and chilly conditions.

No easy forecast.

[Portastorm]

Bipolar is right. Here in NTX cold front is on the way after a warm day. Cooler and rainy the next couple of days and gradual warm up through middle of next week. Then Euro and it's ensembles have been pretty consistent on traversing a big ULL/trough across the southern plains with perhaps wet and chilly conditions.

No easy forecast.

We'd kill for "cooler and rainy" down here.

Here's all you need to know about the south central Texas weather next week ... relevant snippet from this morning's AFD out of NWS Austin/San Antonio:

The Subtropical Ridge builds over South Central Texas by the weekend and persists into early next week. Well above normal, nearly summer like temperatures are expected.

[weatherdude1108]

Bipolar is right. Here in NTX cold front is on the way after a warm day. Cooler and rainy the next couple of days and gradual warm up through middle of next week. Then Euro and it's ensembles have been pretty consistent on traversing a big ULL/trough across the southern plains with perhaps wet and chilly conditions.

No easy forecast.

We'd kill for "cooler and rainy" down here.

Here's all you need to know about the south central Texas weather next week ... relevant snippet from this morning's AFD out of NWS Austin/San Antonio:

The Subtropical Ridge builds over South Central Texas by the weekend and persists into early next week. Well above normal, nearly summer like temperatures are expected.

I saw that. I didn't post because I didn't want to add insult to injury. I'm not liking the trend of dry fronts, Canadian ridges (which feel nice at least but have little to no moisture return flow). Then in between that, subtropical death ridges. Hard cycle to break.

Where are the upper level lows which, at least, transport Gulf moisture to help out any triggers?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

With this type of pattern we are going to be warm for October. Just hang in there! It is muggy down here now though. Not fun

[JDawg512]

EWX is backing away from better rain chances next week. It's still difficult in handling forecasts beyond 5 days but we are stuck in a rut with no significant pattern change as of this afternoon.

[Brent]

this weather is so bipolar... lol

[weatherdude1108]

The EWX office mentions the ECMWF cutting off and retrograding part of a low into far south Texas late next week, but it is a lone outlier, and they are discounting for now. Meanwhile, the dry, warm spell continues.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
336 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2016

.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
A cold front along a Temple to Fredericksburg to Rocksprings to
Dryden line was sagging to the south early this morning. The front
should stall along the Highway 90/I-10 corridor into the southern
Edwards Plateau later today. A mid level trough and an upper level
jet also approach from the west. Upward forcing by these features
on increasing moisture will generate showers and thunderstorms
today into tonight. With the Subtropical Ridge nearby and PWs near
or slightly below seasonal normals, only isolated coverage is
expected. However, better moisture convergence near the Coastal
Plains allows for scattered coverage there this afternoon. The
front dissipates or lifts north of our area early Friday, then the
trough and jet move off to the east in the afternoon. There could
be isolated showers along the Highway 77 corridor to the Coastal
Plains on Friday ahead of the mid and upper level features.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
The Subtropical Ridge builds over South Central Texas this weekend
and persists into early next week. Well above normal, late summer
like temperatures are expected. Strong subsidence and dry airmass
will keep rain out of the forecast. Models had been in agreement
on this, however the most recent ECMWF cuts off part of the trough
passing through on Friday and retrogrades it to the west into far
southern Texas early next week. Will disregard this as the
ensembles do not show this development and is the first run with
this change. The next upper level trough and surface cold front
move across the area during the middle of next week bringing a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for areas east of I-35
on Wednesday. Temperatures fall to near normal in the wake of this
next frontal passage.

[Tireman4]

HGX is wait and see....

000
FXUS64 KHGX 131126
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
626 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2016

.AVIATION...
Think that northern sites (CLL/UTS/CXO) have the best shot of seeing
SHRA/TSRA today as a frontal boundary moves into the area from the
northwest, so 12Z TAFS have VCSH/VCTS this afternoon and this evening
up there. TAF sites further to the south will be mostly VFR today with
W/SE winds at 5 to 10 knots. Any morning fog that has developed will
lift and burn off shortly after sunrise. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
Most of the next week continues to look more like temperatures
from early to mid-September than mid-October. Some isolated to
scattered showers and storms can be expected in the northwest
today and, to a lesser extent, tomorrow as a front stalls out
before really pushing into SE Texas. This should be followed by a
drier weekend and start to next week, before another front deeper
into next week brings another chance for precipitation.

Today and Friday...
Surface analysis and radar show the
indications of a front from the northeast corner of the state
downward into Central Texas. This front is dry at the moment, but
a moisture axis exists in mesoanalysis just ahead of the front,
and it seems reasonable that these factors - combined with
potential upglide thanks to onshore flow downstream of the front
and a shortwave over Arizona that looks to glance by tomorrow -
should support at least isolated showers and storms in our
northwest tomorrow. Meanwhile, we have another night of nocturnal
showers around Matagorda Bay, and expect them to continue along a
similar pattern as yesterday. Tomorrow, guidance is pretty
unanimous in digging the upper trough as it passes by, which would
better support vertical motion, but also appears to stall out the
front or even drag it back up towards North Texas, resulting in
better rain chances generally north of our area. Still keep some
lower precip chances in the north and west, and if the NAM is more
on the ball, can`t rule out higher rain potential from Houston
County southwestward.

The weekend into early next week...
After this trough rolls by, expect midlevel ridging to take hold
again, with subsidence and decreasing column moisture likely to
succeed in restricting rain potential. Along with that, we can
expect temperatures to drift back up towards the 90 degree mark.
Though unseasonably warm, it shouldn`t be too difficult to reach
given that some locations were already able to manage that
Wednesday. Heat indices look to similarly drift upwards, but at
this time are expected to remain below 100 degrees. So while
it`s wise to be attuned to heat concerns given the above normal
values, we`re also looking at a situation that is not alarmingly
out of the norm.

Towards mid-week next week...
In general, models are telling the same general story - the upper
pattern becomes more amplified as a couple powerful systems
(including the remnants of a Pacific typhoon) work their way over
the Continental US. Despite that, they also seem to try to hold
the weekend`s upper ridging in place to some extent - even the
GFS, which tends to be more progressive than the Euro in the long
term. As a result, we`ll likely be looking at another situation in
which a surface front that is losing steam approaches the area.
Many of the details regarding the extent of any impact from this
front are fuzzy. However, it seems reasonable that the middle of
the week should bring another chance for rain, and also knock
temperatures back down towards seasonal averages. For what it`s
worth, NAEFS climatological tools do not indicate anything
significantly anomalous out of this setup.

25

MARINE...
Light to moderate onshore winds will persist into the
middle of next week. Winds will remain below advisory
criteria, and seas will generally be in a 2 to 4 foot
range through the period. A strong cold front is
currently in the forecast to move off the coast and
through the coastal waters around this time next week. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 87 70 89 71 91 / 30 30 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 89 72 90 73 90 / 20 10 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 85 76 85 78 84 / 10 10 10 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...25
Aviation/Marine...42

[gboudx]

Today has that look and feel of a Fall day. Cool and overcast. Too bad it has to end so quickly.

[weatherdude1108]

I'm trying to bring us rain. Tired of these wishy washy forecasts.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 131931
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
231 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Upper air analysis this morning showed zonal flow over Texas and a
shallow trough from the central Rockies to the Baja Peninsula. At
the surface, a frontal boundary was stalled from around Austin to
Comstock. There was wind shift across the front with southeasterly
winds south of the boundary and northeasterly to the north. Dew
point temperatures were in the 70s south of the front and 50s and
60s north of it. Expect the front to remain in the vicinity and
dissipate during this period as the upper trough moves across the
region. There may be sufficient lift for isolated convection
tonight across most of the CWA and over the east on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
An upper level ridge will build in from the west starting Saturday
and move slowly across the southern plains over the weekend and
into the middle of next week. This will mean a dry forecast. Low
level flow will be from the south to southeast and this will keep
warm, moist air over the region. Temperatures will be above normal
during the first half of the week. An upper level trough will
bring a frontal boundary into Texas Tuesday night and through our
CWA Wednesday into Thursday. This system will bring rain chances
Wednesday and Thursday with the better chances on Thursday.

[aggiecutter]

[JDawg512]

Weak short event indeed, even with the late development it looks like it may be influencing our weather now. Then again it takes several months for the atmosphere to couple but it sure feels like a La Niña October.

Bob Rose from the LCRA hinted that November might be a little wetter. "A little" is the key word.

[Ralph's Weather]

I see no way we reach the foretasted 80s here with rain hanging around for a while longer yet. Maybe mid 70s if it clears up by mid afternoon. Been a nice 1-1.5" event around here.

[Ntxw]

I see no way we reach the foretasted 80s here with rain hanging around for a while longer yet. Maybe mid 70s if it clears up by mid afternoon. Been a nice 1-1.5" event around here.

Bipolar is right. I can feel the humidity though, If the clouds clear it will warm up pretty quick but I doubt much into the 80s too. Near 90 next week and back in 70s late week. Jeesh

[weatherdude1108]

I see no way we reach the foretasted 80s here with rain hanging around for a while longer yet. Maybe mid 70s if it clears up by mid afternoon. Been a nice 1-1.5" event around here.

Bipolar is right. I can feel the humidity though, If the clouds clear it will warm up pretty quick but I doubt much into the 80s too. Near 90 next week and back in 70s late week. Jeesh

This weather's on steroids.

[weatherdude1108]

Weak short event indeed, even with the late development it looks like it may be influencing our weather now. Then again it takes several months for the atmosphere to couple but it sure feels like a La Niña October.

Bob Rose from the LCRA hinted that November might be a little wetter. "A little" is the key word.

We managed to get 0.01 yesterday evening from a random light rain. It evaporated by morning, although it was foggy here this morning. It did rain here at the office this morning for a bit. Enough to barely wash the dust off the car. Nothing at my place it looks like.

I'm ready for COOL AND WET, anytime.

[gpsnowman]

I see no way we reach the foretasted 80s here with rain hanging around for a while longer yet. Maybe mid 70s if it clears up by mid afternoon. Been a nice 1-1.5" event around here.

Bipolar is right. I can feel the humidity though, If the clouds clear it will warm up pretty quick but I doubt much into the 80s too. Near 90 next week and back in 70s late week. Jeesh

Yep. Thought I would be able to sit in the school line waiting for my daughter with the windows open today. Too warm and humid for that unfortunately. Please Fall, make a deep long lasting visit to DFW.