2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[gatorcane]

I can't figure out the origin of development on this run. Looks like it starts with the low in the Bahamas and then splits back toward the west. I think that is what is showed yesterday's 12z run but very different than last nights 00z run. The Euro is going through massive swings from run to run. This all looks unusual.

Euro seems to be developing the stretched out vorticity currently located over the SE Bahamas:

[USTropics]

18z GFS back to showing development at 174 hours in the Caribbean.

[gatorcane]

Hits Cuba and looks to threaten South Florida by day 10.

[floridasun78]

my weatherman in Miami say cold front coming into south fl with temp in 60s that could affect what ever in Caribbean

[WeatherHoon]

Hmmm. If the storm doesn't have time to really deepen and make it into the area between Mexico and Belize, a track like that could make sense I guess. Wouldn't a strong cold front automatically eject it out NE instead of what's being depicted on the gfs where it takes it north into the keys before the NE turn?

[jlauderdal]

my weatherman in Miami say cold front coming into south fl with temp in 60s that could affect what ever in Caribbean

setzer?

[floridasun78]

my weatherman in Miami say cold front coming into south fl with temp in 60s that could affect what ever in Caribbean

setzer?

yes at 6pm news he say front coming next week going going cool to 60s

[Miami Storm Tracker]

The proposed split low pressure on the model a page or so back, seems it would not really affect South Florida as much as maybe up the coast a bit. But again way to early to speculate as to if anything really develops and where it may end up going.

[USTropics]

18z GFS ensemble tracks

[Hurricaneman]

It's official, the models have no consistency the evidence is the 0zGfs does nothing with this feature

[bamajammer4eva]

Just a Small shift from 18z to the 00z GFS satellite forecast for next weekend



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[AutoPenalti]

It's official, the models have no consistency the evidence is the 0zGfs does nothing with this feature

Well obviously considering this is 10+ days out. Anything can change, just a wait and see moment now.

[AJC3]

If the 00Z globals are to be believed, the southwestern Caribbean may not even be the true focus for an incipient disturbance. What the guidance is starting to key in on out toward 72-96 hours is a weak BI or BE system forming between 20-25N and 75-80W (denoted by the dashed blue line) downstream of a 500MB low or trough (annotated) near south Florida, and in an area of fairly strong upper level westerlies. There's still some sort of lowering of pressures that occurs farther south over the western or southwestern Caribbean Sea (blue circle), but it's really starting to look like more of a disorganized mess with two competing areas of (1) non-tropical, and (2) tropical low pressure developing (1) A little east to southeast; and (2) Well to the south of southern Florida early next week.

GFS


ECM


The less reliable globals are more progressive/open at 500MB, but have a similar surface repsonse.

GEM


NAVGEM


JMA

[HURRICANELONNY]

I keep saying that the pressures are going to drop in the carribean. The models keep popping lows everywhere. It pretty much happens every year.

[otowntiger]

It's official, the models have no consistency the evidence is the 0zGfs does nothing with this feature

Well obviously considering this is 10+ days out. Anything can change, just a wait and see moment now.

It seems that one can conclude there is nothing happening anytime soon to be concerned about (or even interested in) in the foreseeable future. Things can change but in my opinion it looks like the season is winding down.

[jlauderdal]

It's official, the models have no consistency the evidence is the 0zGfs does nothing with this feature

Well obviously considering this is 10+ days out. Anything can change, just a wait and see moment now.

It seems that one can conclude there is nothing happening anytime soon to be concerned about (or even interested in) in the foreseeable future. Things can change but in my opinion it looks like the season is winding down.

weak low pressure in 5 days...i agree, not much happening at least for now

[WPBWeather]

Well obviously considering this is 10+ days out. Anything can change, just a wait and see moment now.

It seems that one can conclude there is nothing happening anytime soon to be concerned about (or even interested in) in the foreseeable future. Things can change but in my opinion it looks like the season is winding down.

weak low pressure in 5 days...i agree, not much happening at least for now

Ol' Joe still thinks something will happen, so I'll keep one eye half open for a bit longer.

[chaser1]

Other than the standard 3 or 4 T.S. that the CMC wants to predict forming during the next 7 days, there's no clear signal for W. Atlantic development. At the same time though, its apparent that most of the global models have been jumpy over the past few days with hints of development ranging from the N. Gulf coast, to over and near S. Florida, to the W. Caribbean. I don't think that the lack of coherent model after model consistency is at all indicative that the season is necessarily over yet. I"m guessing that somewhere between this Sunday-Tuesday we suddenly begin to see a resurgence of model "pinging" as if the metal detectors will have again locked on some some set of favorable conditions, most likely in what would be the most climatologically favored area - the W. Caribbean. I"m guessing we'll see at least one more hurricane develop between the 21st - 30th. Until then, we'll probably just see a few more random "false-positive" low pressure areas pop in and out of model sight. Oddly, I would have expected to see some deep southwest Carib. tropical/monsoonal gyre slowly take shape over days of model run consistency. I thought the EURO was kind of hinting toward that a few days ago. With an average to warm Fall predicted over the Southeast Conus, I"m guessing maybe that's how the Atlantic season might eventually close itself out this year, sometime toward early to mid November perhaps.

Either way, I'm pretty sure that ONE more named storm this season, is pretty much "Otto-matic"

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS is all over the board. One run it has development, next it has none...Now it is showing something spinning up well North of Puerto Rico and heading SW across Cuba in the long range. This seems highly suspect.

[gatorcane]

Yeah models are all over the place. I don't recall seeing such disagreement and such a wide variety of solutions even in the medium-range guidance. Also note the GFS no longer pushes a strong cold front through South Florida. Instead has a huge ridge over the SE United States / FL / Gulf.