WPAC: SARIKA - Post-Tropical

[dexterlabio]

I don't know if it's just me or just DMAX, but Sarika is looking quite impressive for a 35-knot TS.

[kala]

WTPQ21 RJTD 132100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1621 SARIKA (1621)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 132100UTC 13.5N 127.4E FAIR
MOVE WSW 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 142100UTC 14.4N 124.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 151800UTC 14.9N 122.6E 95NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 161800UTC 16.1N 117.7E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

40 kts per JMA.

[dexterlabio]

^Forgot to check the JMA warning. I think that estimate is closer than JTWC's. A while ago I thought there is a core building going on in the CDO, but latest microwave image does not seem to show that. Impressive banding feature though.

[mrbagyo]

It's being disturbed by northeasterly shear I believe.

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

TPPN11 PGTW 140036

A. TROPICAL STORM 24W (SARIKA)

B. 14/0000Z

C. 13.78N

D. 127.32E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .60 ON LOG10
SPIRAL, YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   CHAPPOTIN

[dexterlabio]

JMA now upgraded Sarika to a Severe Tropical Storm with 50kt sustained winds.

[dexterlabio]

Impressive blow-up of convection, but it seems that the real center is still on the northeastern part of the CDO.. I agree there might be some shear issues going on. Real intensification is expected 24 hours from now if the model guidance is correct.

[kala]

[euro6208]

45 knots.

WDPN31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (SARIKA)
WARNING NR 07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 24W (SARIKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS THAT TS 24W HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE WITH IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WHICH REMAINS OBSCURED BY CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. A 132219Z
SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THAT CURVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING REMAINS SOMEWHAT ASYMMETRIC AS THE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND CIMSS UPPER-LEVEL WIND ANALYSES INDICATE THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED AND
BEEN REPLACED BY A WEAK POINT SOURCE, DECREASING THE PRESSURE ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, ALLOWING FOR THE IMPROVING CONVECTIVE
SIGNATURE AND MORE RAPID CONSOLIDATION. TS 24W REMAINS IN A HIGHLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH GOOD OVERALL OUTFLOW AIDED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED POINT SOURCE AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE
CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT TRACK MOTION IS BASED ON ANALYSIS OF THE
MSI AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. ADDITIONALLY A 300000Z
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATE OF 47 KNOTS SUPPORTS THE
CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT. TS SARIKA IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS SARIKA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE STR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE TURNING SLIGHTLY
MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TS
SARIKA WILL BE TRACKING IN AN EXTREMELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH
VERY LOW VWS, GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND VERY HIGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OVER 31 CELSIUS. AS TS SARIKA TRACKS THROUGH THIS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, IT IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO A PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SLIGHTLY SLOWER RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND 48, BEFORE REACHING
PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS JUST PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL OVER LUZON
AT TAU 48. TS SARIKA WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT CROSSES THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF LUZON, BUT WILL REEMERGE STILL AT TYPOON
STRENGTH AND REINTENSIFY ONCE OVER OPEN WATERS OF THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ECMWF AND HWRF (TWO PRIMARY OUTLIERS),
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF LESS
THAN 100NM THROUGH TAU 72. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS
THE FORWARD SPEED AND TIMING OF LANDFALL IN THE PHILIPPINES.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THE DYNAMIC MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT, WITH HWRF AND COTC TRACKING THE SYSTEM MORE TO THE NORTH
TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE STR. THE REMAINING CONSENSUS MEMBERS TRACK
THE SYSTEM TOWARDS HAINAN AND DO NOT SHOW TS 24W INTERACTING WITH
THE BREAK IN THE STR. THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS THE SOUTHERN,
STRAIGHT RUNNER SCENARIO WITH A SECOND LANDFALL OVER HAINAN ISLAND
BETWEEN TAUS 96 AND 120. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE AND STEADY INTENSIFICATION
CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER HAINAN. WITH THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER PERIOD OF
RAPID INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 72 AND BEFORE LANDFALL. OVERALL
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK AS THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CONVERGE ON BOTH THE TRACK AND SPEED
SOLUTION.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (SARIKA)
WARNING NR 08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 24W (SARIKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 328 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN AREA OF DEEP CENTRAL OVERCAST
THAT IS OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 140607Z
SSMI 85 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS SHALLOW CONVECTION IN THE BANDING FEATURES
WITH A BROAD AND ELONGATED LLCC, GIVING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE
INITIAL POSITION, AND AN AREA OF DEEP FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED ON
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. A 140131Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE
ALSO SHOWS THE LLCC SLIGHTLY ELONGATED WITH PEAK WINDS OF 35 TO 40
KNOTS LIMITED TO THE EASTERN PERIPHERIES, SUGGESTING THAT DVORAK
ESTIMATES ARE OVERESTIMATING THE INTENSITY AT 00Z. FOR THIS REASON
THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE LOWER ENVELOPE OF
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING BETWEEN T3.0 AND T3.5 (45 TO 55 KNOTS).
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL,
HOWEVER, THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS COMPLEX. THERE IS A TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST WHICH IS
HELPING TO PROVIDE A LIMITED POLEWARD EXHAUST FOR TS SARIKA, BUT
ANOTHER TUTT CELL LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST IS PROVIDING PRESSURE ON
THAT QUADRANT AND RESTRICTING EXHAUST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE NEAR 30 TO 31 DEGREES. CURRENTLY TS SARIKA IS
TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG A WEAK DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE LOCATED TO
THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS SARIKA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG
THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE FOR THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE. AROUND TAU 36
ANOTHER DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER CHINA, EXTENDING OUTWARD
OVER TAIWAN AND ESTABLISH ITSELF AS THE DOMINANT STEERING RIDGE
ACCELERATING TS SARIKA WESTWARD. STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU
36 IS EXPECTED AS THE ENVIRONMENT GRADUALLY IMPROVES DUE TO THE
EASTWARD TUTT SLOWLY FILLING AND ALLOWING FOR MORE ROBUST OUTFLOW.
THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH 85 KNOTS BEFORE TS SARIKA MAKES
LANDFAL OVER LUZON SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36. BY TAU 48 TS SARIKA WILL
RESURFACE OVER WATER WEAKENED BUT LARGELY INTACT AND RECONSOLIDATE
WHILE IT CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST ANOTHER PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED WHILE TS SARIKA TRACKS WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE SUPPORTING A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 96. FURTHER LAND INTERACTION WITH
HAINAN IS EXPECTED SHORTLY THEREAFTER AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWEST
TOWARD NORTHERN VIETNAM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING MUCH
IMPROVED AGREEMENT IN TRACK GROUPING. THE SPREAD BETWEEN VORTICITY
TRACKERS IS ONLY 70 NM AT THE 48 HOUR FORECAST POSITION AND 160 NM
AT THE 120 HOUR POSITION. DUE TO THE TIGHT AGREEMENT IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS THE FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Very impressive band west of the center.

[cycloneye]

JMA upgrades to Typhoon.

TY 1621 (Sarika)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 14 October 2016

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 14 October>
Scale
-
Intensity
Strong
Center position
N13°55' (13.9°)

E126°00' (126.0°)
Direction and speed of movement
WNW Slow
Central pressure
970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center
35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed
50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area
ALL 70 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area
N 280 km (150 NM)

S 170 km (90 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 15 October>
Intensity
Strong
Center position of probability circle
N14°20' (14.3°)

E124°40' (124.7°)
Direction and speed of movement
WNW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure
960 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center
40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed
55 m/s (105 kt)
Radius of probability circle
60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area
ALL 170 km (90 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 15 October>
Intensity
Very strong
Center position of probability circle
N14°50' (14.8°)

E123°20' (123.3°)
Direction and speed of movement
WNW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure
950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center
45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed
60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle
90 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area
ALL 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 16 October>
Intensity
Strong
Center position of probability circle
N16°10' (16.2°)

E118°25' (118.4°)
Direction and speed of movement
WNW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure
970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center
35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed
50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle
200 km (110 NM)
Storm warning area
ALL 310 km (170 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 17 October>
Intensity
Strong
Center position of probability circle
N16°35' (16.6°)

E113°25' (113.4°)
Direction and speed of movement
W 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure
955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center
40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed
60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle
260 km (140 NM)
Storm warning area
ALL 370 km (200 NM)

[mrbagyo]

Oh boy, this is a typhoon

[Dave C]

Yep, an eyewall is in the process of closing off.

[ManilaTC]

And once it closes, this one is going to explode

Not good for us in the path, have this gut feel that it will be close to here (Metro Manila).

[mrbagyo]

Agencies are in tight agreement that Sarika will come ashore in or very near the coastal town of Dingalan, Aurora - a very landslide prone area.
2004 Typhoon Season was their worst season. Aurora (esp. Gabaldon, Dingalan) and Quezon Province(esp. Infanta, Real & General Nakar) got drenched by TS Merbok and tropical depression "Winnie" in a span of 1 week then followed by Typhoon Nanmadol.
Interestingly, we're using the same naming list used in the 2004 season.

Other notable intense storm that hit the area: Typhoon Rita (1978) and Typhoon Dot (1985) - both were October storms.

[1900hurricane]

Sarika has great banding structure. I'd say JMA is closer to reality with their typhoon intensity analysis and JTWC, who is still lagging behind at 55 kt.

[euro6208]

24W SARIKA 161014 1800 14.0N 124.9E WPAC 65 983

10th typhoon of the season is born.

[euro6208]

EURO down to 976mb for Luzon landfall...

[euro6208]

Trail of destruction to Vietnam...