2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[WeatherHoon]

12 Euro looks to spin up a low near Jamaica.

[otowntiger]

Yeah models are all over the place. I don't recall seeing such disagreement and such a wide variety of solutions even in the medium-range guidance. Also note the GFS no longer pushes a strong cold front through South Florida. Instead has a huge ridge over the SE United States / FL / Gulf.

https://s16.postimg.org/wo4j4z3z9/gfs_z ... atl_39.png

. Ugggh! That's not good! we want some cool air down here soon!

[jlauderdal]

GFS is all over the board. One run it has development, next it has none...Now it is showing something spinning up well North of Puerto Rico and heading SW across Cuba in the long range. This seems highly suspect.

weak low on the euro in 6 days...really not much doing here

[WPBWeather]

Its been called the "Ridge over Troubled Waters" by a well known ProMet.

[Pughetime12]

Forgive my ignorance, but wouldn't that ridge protect the SE/FL/Gulf from a Hurricane?

[northjaxpro]

Yes, a ridge like that potential set up would not only protect Florida and the SE U.S./Gulf Coast region, but would take a cyclone W/SW potentially into Mexico or Central America.

Still have lots of time to watch, but that type of set-up would bring heat and humidity back across the South and Florida.

[otowntiger]

Forgive my ignorance, but wouldn't that ridge protect the SE/FL/Gulf from a Hurricane?

It depends on where the storm forms but my lamentation about the high pressure setting up like that has to do with wanting some cool air not about storm threats.

[northjaxpro]

Well, anything that would develop in the Greater Antilles and into the Caribbean would be most likely steered west or WSW with a set up being depicted with that ridge.

[jlauderdal]

:uarrow: Well, anything that would develop in the Greater Antilles and into the Caribbean would be most likely steered west or WSW with a set up being depicted with that ridge.

the setup on the euro and gfs hardly look favorable for anything to develop...in fact it appears a cold front actually makes it through sofla..will see about that

[OURAGAN]

CMC, NAGEM, develop something at 180 Hours in the atlantic

[GCANE]

GFS is initializing a warm core in about 126 to 144 hrs in the Bahamas

[GCANE]

00Z Euro 96 hrs out, 1010 mb north of PR

[northjaxpro]

:uarrow: Well, anything that would develop in the Greater Antilles and into the Caribbean would be most likely steered west or WSW with a set up being depicted with that ridge.

the setup on the euro and gfs hardly look favorable for anything to develop...in fact it appears a cold front actually makes it through sofla..will see about that

I hope you are right. I am storm weary at this point to tell you the truth. I am so ready for Autumn weather. Hopefully we see our first true cold front to come in and help put an end to the tropical season.

[jlauderdal]

:uarrow: Well, anything that would develop in the Greater Antilles and into the Caribbean would be most likely steered west or WSW with a set up being depicted with that ridge.

the setup on the euro and gfs hardly look favorable for anything to develop...in fact it appears a cold front actually makes it through sofla..will see about that

I hope you are right. I am storm weary at this point to tell you the truth. I am so ready for Autumn weather. Hopefully we see our first true cold front to come in and help put an end to the tropical season.

it looks like anything that develops east of us will get pushed out..the sw Caribbean idea has greatly diminished..how did you do with Matthew?

[northjaxpro]

the setup on the euro and gfs hardly look favorable for anything to develop...in fact it appears a cold front actually makes it through sofla..will see about that

I hope you are right. I am storm weary at this point to tell you the truth. I am so ready for Autumn weather. Hopefully we see our first true cold front to come in and help put an end to the tropical season.

it looks like anything that develops east of us will get pushed out..the sw Caribbean idea has greatly diminished..how did you do with Matthew?

I had a lot of clean-up with tree branches and limbs in my area. I had peak wind gust to 71 mph from Matthew. Fortunately, I only lost power for about 2 hours thankfully. However, the Jax Beaches and areas along A1A south to Saint Augustine suffered significant damage and flooding.

[SFLcane]

Bla.... not much support (if there ever was) for anything significant watching for possibly wet sheared system near Florida next week. Rather complex

[TheStormExpert]

I'd personally say the season is basically done once Nicole leaves the picture. Of course the season doesn't officially end until November 30th so keep one eye open.

[Steve]

I'd personally say the season is basically done once Nicole leaves the picture. Of course the season doesn't officially end until November 30th so keep one eye open.

You might be right. I've been wondering for a few weeks with how long Matthew and Nicole were going to hang around, if they will have taken most of the remaining available atmospheric heat out of the W Atl. Obviously there is still plenty of oceanic heat content though as well as some favorable trade winds and MJO ahead. So I'd still give the season a fair shot at two more named storms with a pretty good likelihood of at least one more named storm. Gun to the head guess in order of most likely would be 1NS, 0 or 2, more than 2 in that order with 0 maybe a hair more likely than 2.

[psyclone]

The secondary peak happens around the 20th after which we rapidly go into terminal decline by month's end. Sand is definitely flowing through the hour glass fast now...I don't worry much about anything outside the western Caribbean at this point and development chances there look low.

[Frank2]

Not surprised about a model low in the Bahamas 5 days out - weather here (FLL) has been training thundershowers since 8 a.m....