WPAC: HAIMA - Post-Tropical

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

[euro6208]

The intensity forecast is going to bust big time.

[dexterlabio]

Not that I'm nitpicking, but it seems like Haima does not have intense feeder bands. Although the CDO is humongous.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

looks to have expanded in the past two hours.

[1900hurricane]

I'd still like to see a true poleward outflow channel open up. Haima did have one before, so it could reestablish. But dang, this is getting very intense.

[euro6208]

TPPN12 PGTW 180918

A. SUPER TYPHOON 25W (HAIMA)

B. 18/0900Z

C. 15.53N

D. 129.89E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T7.0/7.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS A DT OF 7.0. MET AGREES WITH DT, WHILE PT IS HELD AT
6.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN

[euro6208]

Wow. Finally without recon. Presentation looks good enough for a Cat 5 when it was one hours ago and it's still strengthening. Obliging by the rules.

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 OCT 2016 Time : 104000 UTC
Lat : 15:38:54 N Lon : 129:27:41 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 915.3mb/140.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.0 7.2 7.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 26 km

Center Temp : -0.2C Cloud Region Temp : -81.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 158km
- Environmental MSLP : 1005mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 22.6 degrees

****************************************************

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Now a category 5!!

25W HAIMA 161018 1200 15.8N 129.0E WPAC 140 918

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

[euro6208]

Could be 145 to 160 knots now.

[mrbagyo]

Low level inflow has started reaching the northeastern tip of Luzon.

Just before dusk @Nangaramoan Beach, Santa Ana, Cagayan

I talked to some locals earlier and I was surprised that their most recent "truly memorable" typhoon was Typhoon Nuri 2008 -(PAGASA NAME: KAREN)
According to them, Nuri was bad because they lived with no electricity for almost a month.
Typhoons Nanmadol and Noul seemed insignificant to them - they barely remembered those two.

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 OCT 2016 Time : 114000 UTC
Lat : 15:30:17 N Lon : 129:01:19 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.2 / 909.2mb/146.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.2 7.4 7.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 27 km

Center Temp : +9.7C Cloud Region Temp : -82.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 158km
- Environmental MSLP : 1005mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 22.8 degrees

****************************************************

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Getting Super Typhoon Haiyan vibes o.o This is turning terrifying fast.

[NotoSans]

Both the JMA and JTWC agree on T7.0/7.0 at 12Z.

TPPN12 PGTW 181223

A. SUPER TYPHOON 25W (HAIMA)

B. 18/1200Z

C. 15.60N

D. 129.10E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T7.0/7.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS A DT OF 7.0. MET AGREES WITH DT, WHILE PT REMAINS 6.5.
DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN

[CrazyC83]

Looks to be about 150 kt now - and still intensifying.

[ManilaTC]

Just realized this. HAIYAN... HAIMA... HAI... both Supers. (gulp)

[ThetaE]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

Impressive loop of the 4th category 5 typhoon of the season.

(I mean, they don't use the Saffir-Simpson Scale, but...)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Oh my god.....

TY 1622 (Haima)
Issued at 13:00 UTC, 18 October 2016

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 18 October>
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N15°35' (15.6°)
E129°05' (129.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 905 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (110 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 80 m/s (155 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 170 km (90 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 390 km (210 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 19 October>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N16°10' (16.2°)
E126°20' (126.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 900 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 60 m/s (115 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85 m/s (165 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 260 km (140 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 19 October>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N17°00' (17.0°)
E123°35' (123.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 900 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 60 m/s (115 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85 m/s (165 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 300 km (160 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 20 October>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°00' (19.0°)
E118°05' (118.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 390 km (210 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 21 October>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N22°40' (22.7°)
E114°35' (114.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55 m/s (105 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 440 km (240 NM)

[NotoSans]

JMA brings Haima to the Dapeng Peninsula as a 75-knot typhoon. If the forecast track verifies Haima will definitely pose a significant threat to Hong Kong.