ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

[GCANE]

Surface to 700mb looks pretty well stacked.
On the SE side of the UL trough.
Trough is forecasted to weaken to a ULL in about 30 hrs and gone in about 60 hrs.
Looking on WV and how its filling in, that may occur a little earlier.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 346,24.172

[GCANE]

Looking at Tuesday's 00Z Euro and COAMPs runs, this is getting pretty close to New England.
Since it will likely be extratropical by then, very likely a good portion from NJ to Canadian Maritimes will feel the effects.

[GCANE]

1004mb at Providenciales, Turks Islands
https://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/fi ... &sp=M3FFL8

[cycloneye]

Shower activity associated with a well-defined, non-tropical low
pressure system located just to the northeast of the Turks and
Caicos has changed little during the past several hours. The low is
expected to slowly intensify as upper-level winds become more
conducive, and a subtropical or tropical cyclone could form during
the next couple of days while the low moves northward on Wednesday
and turns north-northwestward or northwestward on Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

[GCANE]

Looks like the UL trough is already dissipating and transistioning to an ULL at 25N 74W

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[GCANE]

06Z GFS is showing the MS-Vally surface low as deepening compared to earlier runs.
It is forecast to track to New England, and combine with 99L,

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 5702727522

[GCANE]

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT TUE 18 OCTOBER 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z OCTOBER 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-145

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS)
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 43
A. 19/1800Z
B. NOAA3 01GGA INVEST
C. 19/1500Z
D. 26.5N 68.5W
E. 19/1730Z TO 19/2030Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: FIX OF THIS SYSTEM
AT 20/1730Z NEAR 27.0N 70.5W

[AJC3]

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT TUE 18 OCTOBER 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z OCTOBER 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-145

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS)
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 43
A. 19/1800Z
B. NOAA3 01GGA INVEST
C. 19/1500Z
D. 26.5N 68.5W
E. 19/1730Z TO 19/2030Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: FIX OF THIS SYSTEM
AT 20/1730Z NEAR 27.0N 70.5W

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

$$

[tolakram]

Lots of swirls.

visible loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=24&lon=-69&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=yellow

['CaneFreak]

Yes! Definitely very unorganized at the moment. It will be interesting to see how this one plays out. Upstream ridges and downstream troughs have plagued the models in the past. We'll see what it does.

Lots of swirls.

visible loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=24&lon=-69&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=yellow

[Ken711]

12z GFS shows it merging with a low coming from the Ohio Valley.

[GCANE]

12z GFS shows it merging with a low coming from the Ohio Valley.

Looks like it may bomb in New England

['CaneFreak]

That is exactly what I am afraid of. I don't think it would be a Sandy #2 but the water sure is warm in the northwestern extent of the Gulf Stream right now and the 500 mb heights in the Northeast are forecasted to run well below normal.


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=z500a&runtime=2016101812&fh=90&xpos=0&ypos=200

Looks like it may bomb in New England

['CaneFreak]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and become a little
better organized since yesterday in association with a well-defined,
non-tropical low pressure system located a couple of hundred miles
northeast of the Turks and Caicos. The low is expected to acquire
some tropical characteristics as upper-level winds become more
conducive, and a subtropical or tropical cyclone will likely form
during the next few days. The low is forecast to move northward on
Wednesday and turn northwestward on Thursday, before heading
northeastward out to sea by the end of the week. A NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system tomorrow
afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart

['CaneFreak]

Don't look at the latest EURO. Yuck. It agrees with the GFS. It looks like the storm is coming up the coast. You have a trough-ridge-trough pattern between the East Coast trough, the Canadian Maritimes Ridge, and a Greenland low. That's a very stable pattern.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016101812/ecmwf_z500a_atl_4.png

[GCANE]

12Z UKMET is bombing it for the Canadian Maritimes.

[GCANE]

12Z GFS combines the lows over the Hudson Valley and bombs it over Maine.

http://tc.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFS/2016101812/slp.anim

['CaneFreak]

Yeah it keeps the two lows separate though. Follow the low associated with this disturbance carefully. It stays along the southern edge of the trough over the NE and never combines with it. Taking a second look at the 12Z Euro, it looks like it does the same thing too but it is a step closer to a full phase. It's going to be an interesting next few days.

12Z GFS combines the lows over the Hudson Valley and bombs it over Maine.

http://tc.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFS/2016101812/slp.anim

[emeraldislenc]

How close will this get to
The NC coast?

['CaneFreak]

Check back on Thu. We'll have a better idea.

How close will this get to
The NC coast?