WPAC: HAIMA - Post-Tropical

[Macrocane]

Wow, very strong convection and the eye is clearing very nicely.

[1900hurricane]

Yeesh...

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 25W (HAIMA) WARNING NR
16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 25W (HAIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 474 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. STY 25W HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS FROM 115 KNOTS TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 140 KNOTS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 25-NM ROUND EYE, WHICH
PROVIDES EXCELLENT CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT
MOTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 140 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T7.0 FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO VERY FAVORABLE NEAR 29
CELSIUS. CURRENTLY STY HAIMA IS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. STY HAIMA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TO NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND CONTINUED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS TO A PEAK NEAR 145
KNOTS. BY TAU 24, HAIMA IS FORECAST TO CROSS OVER THE NORTHERN TIP
OF LUZON, WITH LAND INTERACTION LEADING TO ADDITIONAL WEAKENING
BEFORE EMERGING INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS). SLIGHTLY LESS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE SCS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED WEAKENING
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. BEYOND TAU 48, STY HAIMA WILL BEGIN TO ROUND
THE STR, TAKING A MORE NORTHERLY COURSE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL EAST
OF HONG KONG.
C. BEYOND TAU 72 STY HAIMA WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND TURN TO
THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 120. AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

[1900hurricane]

I really wish JMA would move the rapid scan floater off the wisp of cloud named Sarika and onto Haima.

[euro6208]

I'd say 150 to 170 knots now...RAW T is hovering at 7.4 or near 155 knots. Dvorak fails with systems like this.

[1900hurricane]

Poleward outflow is still struggling some, but it's trying.

[euro6208]

OHC is super high until landfall...

[euro6208]

Great Category 6 blog from Masters.

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/super-typhoon-haima-takes-aim-on-philippines

[mrbagyo]

I dont know what's on that part of Luzon ( Isabela-Cagayan) but Post El Nino October Supertyphoons kinda like making landfall there at cat 5 strength. It's becoming a trend.
ZEB - October 1998 - Palanan Isabela
MEGI - October 2010 - Divilacan /Palanan Isabela
HAIMA - October 2016 - ?

[NotoSans]

JMA went with a T7.5/7.5 at 18Z. Looks a bit high to me since the eye temperature has only occasionally reached the WMG range. I would probably go with 145 knots at 18Z, consistent with SATCON values, based on a blend of subjective Dvorak and ADT estimates, as well as the AMSU algorithm. May be a bit conservative given the possible low bias of Dvorak estimates on storms with such a high intensity.

[euro6208]

I still see some clouds in the eye. If it can manage to clear it out with continued cold tops, i see this reaching 8.0.

[NotoSans]

The latest Euro run seems to bring Haima directly over Hong Kong as a typhoon.

[mrbagyo]

The latest Euro run seems to bring Haima directly over Hong Kong as a typhoon.

Euro's very consistent with that solution.

I still see some clouds in the eye. If it can manage to clear it out with continued cold tops, i see this reaching 8.0.

Haima needs a more robust poleward outflow to clear it out.

[NotoSans]

Meanwhile, GFS has slowly shifted to the west but is still indicating a landfall to the east of Hong Kong. Of course, the model guidance is in tight agreement in the overall track, but a slight deviation of the track (i.e. whether the storm makes landfall to the west or to the east of Hong Kong) can make a large difference to the threat posed to the city.

[1900hurricane]

VIIRS nighttime visible pass from not too long ago:

[euro6208]

25W HAIMA 161018 1800 16.0N 127.5E WPAC 140 913

Remains at only 140 knots...

[NotoSans]

Up to 115 knots / 900 hPa from the JMA, consistent with their Dvorak estimates.

[wxmann_91]

Eye is trying to clear out but I don't think it will have enough time before landfall in the Philippines. The restriction of poleward outflow is preventing it from reaching a higher-end Cat 5.

[1900hurricane]

Already?