original poll
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
original poll
Where can I find this year's original poll for our storm predictions? I am curious how close I am. I know we have two or so months left but I would like to see it. Thanks!!
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139596
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: original poll
wzrgirl1 wrote:Where can I find this year's original poll for our storm predictions? I am curious how close I am. I know we have two or so months left but I would like to see it. Thanks!!
Here is the forum where all the polls are archieved.
viewforum.php?f=25
2016 poll
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: original poll
cycloneye wrote:wzrgirl1 wrote:Where can I find this year's original poll for our storm predictions? I am curious how close I am. I know we have two or so months left but I would like to see it. Thanks!!
Here is the forum where all the polls are archived.
viewforum.php?f=25
2016 poll
Out of boredom I figured hey, lets take a look at the original S2K Member pole and see how close I was, now that we are truly winding down here to the "final minutes in the 4th quarter". Right now, the season stands at 14/6/3 (14 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 which attained Major level intensity). Okay I was slightly impressed with my guess of 16/8/4, I mean two more named storms that both acquired hurricane strength during the next 35 or so days is unlikely but plausible. One of 'em would have to be a major 'cane for my guess to have nailed it though. Then I took a longer look at the entire list of forecasts and was amazed. I"m not sure I can recall SO MANY others who are so close and more likely to have accurately guessed at least 2 of the 3 fields!!
If the season ended right now, the following would have nailed it with accurately guessing 3 for 3!:
Annie Oakley=14/6/3
fci=14/6/3
Downdraft=14/6/3
(plus, 15 others who at this point accurately predicted 2 of 3 fields).
Of course, everything changes "if" we "eek out" simply 1 more named storm that reaches hurricane strength AND becomes a major 'cane, OR 1 more named storm that reaches hurricane strength but NOT reaching major intensity, or finally 1 more named storm that simply does not reach hurricane strength. Furthermore and less likely at this point, perhaps there will be 2 more named storms still to form. Regardless, there appears to be MANY who will have at least accurate predicted 2 of 3 fields correctly in practically any of the remaining possible outcomes. Seems pretty impressive to me. Maybe a S2K member average poll result should be considered as (or more) accurate than most other professional pre-season forecast products
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: ElectricStorm, Flakeys, Google Adsense [Bot], HurakaYoshi, Hurricane2022, randge, riapal, South Texas Storms and 101 guests