
What in the world is that to the NW of Seymour, looks like a separate tropical system!!!!!!?
Moderator: S2k Moderators
hurricanes1234 wrote:Good call by the NHC. It's starting to look more symmetrical again. Should resume strengthening at a quick pace once it can keep out the dry air.
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 250852
TCDEP5
HURRICANE SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016
300 AM MDT TUE OCT 25 2016
The small eye of Seymour has reappeared in infrared satellite
imagery overnight, and has warmed and become more distinct within
the past hour or so. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates are
T5.5 (102 kt) from TAFB and T5.0 (90 kt) from SAB. Objective Dvorak
intensity estimates from UW/CIMSS are somewhat lower, likely due to
the technique having difficulty in resolving the small eye. Based
on the very recent warming of the eye, the initial intensity is set
to 100 kt.
Seymour is expected to remain within an area of low wind shear and
over SSTs of around 28C during the next 24 hours. These conditions
favor additional intensification and the NHC wind speed forecast
calls for a peak intensity at category 4 strength later today.
After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler waters
should begin the weakening process. Seymour is predicted to weaken
very rapidly between days 2 and 3 when it encounters very strong
southwesterly shear and moves over SSTs below 25C. The NHC
intensity forecast is near the upper-end of the guidance through
24 hours, but is close to the LGEM and NOAA corrected consensus
models after that time.
The hurricane is moving westward or 280/13 kt. A mid- to
upper-level ridge extending westward from Mexico is expected to
steer Seymour westward to west-northwestward for another 24 to 36
hours. After that time, a deep-layer trough is forecast to erode
the western portion of the ridge which should cause Seymour to turn
northwestward, then northward later in the period. The track
guidance remains in good agreement and the new NHC track forecast
is essentially an update of the previous advisory.
Recent ASCAT data shows that Seymour remains a small tropical
cyclone with tropical-storm-force winds extending only about
60 n mi from the center.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0900Z 15.6N 113.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 16.0N 115.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 16.6N 118.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 17.5N 120.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 18.8N 121.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 21.2N 122.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 22.0N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brown
Code: Select all
EP, 20, 201610251800, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1570N, 11590W, , 1, 115, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, SAB, JW, VIM, 1, 6060 /////, , , GOES15, LLCC, T, DT=6.0 BO EYE MET=5.5 PT=6.0 FTBO DT
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