WPAC: Invest 97W

[1900hurricane]

An invest has been tagged in the vicinity of the Marshall Islands. Model support is lackluster to say the least, and I would be surprised if this one develops. Some leftover vorticity may end up contributing to a potential system further west in a week or so.

As of 06:00 UTC Oct 25, 2016:

Location: 9.0°N 169.4°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb

[euro6208]

97W INVEST 161026 0000 8.8N 167.2E WPAC 15 1010

[euro6208]

Quite interesting. Following the vorticity on the latest 00Z EURO run, it tracks this all the way to the Philippines with little to no development then all hats off.

[euro6208]

00Z GFS also with a similiar idea.



Makes landfall over Luzon.

[euro6208]

Wow. EURO intensifies this big time. Makes a visit to Guam then the P.I sea does it's magic. Bottoms it out at 937 mb as it becomes quasi-stationary, drifts south, and drives it back west towards Luzon.

[euro6208]

GFS has Meari making landfall over Luzon at 937 mb! The Philippines truly is a Typhoon Hunter's dream.

[euro6208]

NWS: Looking like a wet Halloween for the Marianas.

For the next few days at least, GFS and ECMWF have come into
somewhat better agreement than yesterday. They are both bringing
the eastern Micronesia trough slowly west, bringing it through the
Marianas Monday and Monday night. The ECMWF is more aggressive,
with a developing circulation on the trough passing over Guam on
Monday. The models have been showing this general scenario for the
last two or three runs, and with the trough and its attendant
disturbed weather already in place, have modified the Marianas
forecasts based on a blend of the models. Through Saturday, the
forecast is much the same as before, but have added isolated
thunderstorms tonight with the upper low close to the southwest.
The big changes come Sunday night and Monday, when scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected, along with
significantly more wind than previously forecast. As the
disturbance comes by on Monday, whether a circulation is present
or not, the enhanced pressure gradient between a ridge to the
north and lower pressure to the south will boost winds to as high
as 25 mph--possibly a bit higher. Once the trough passes, winds
should shift to southeast and decrease by Tuesday, but scattered
showers will likely persist through then. A fair amount of
uncertainty persists, and changes may occur, so anyone planning
outdoor or marine activities should monitor the forecasts and any
statements that may be issued over the next few days.

[euro6208]

Monster just waiting to wake up.

[euro6208]

JTWC has it pegged at:

97W INVEST 161027 0600 8.3N 159.9E WPAC 15 1010

[euro6208]

06Z makes Meari a Category 5 bottoming out at 924mb and weakens it a little before landfall and more southerly.

[cycloneye]

NRL took it out.Maybe is a glitch and comes back soon.

[1900hurricane]

That's odd, RAMMB is still carrying it and has position updates all the way through 12Z today.

[1900hurricane]

I'm not sure if it'll be as 97W, 90W, or something else, but development chances are actually looking pretty good to me once it passes Guam. I'd say chances of it retaining the 97W designation all the way west is better than I originally gave it credit for.

[mrbagyo]

Typical target of TCs forming in early November stretches from Central / Southern Luzon, Bicol Peninsula and to the Visayas. Most of them are straight runners.

[cycloneye]

SSD floater also took out 97W.It has to be 99W the one that develops down the road.

[1900hurricane]

SSD floater also took out 97W.It has to be 99W the one that develops down the road.

99W is the vorticity out near 170*E. While 99W is stronger at this point, guidance is keying in on on the vorticity just west of 160*E, which is 97W.

[cycloneye]

JMA has low Pressure in the 97W area.

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 07N 151E ALMOST STATIONARY

[1900hurricane]

Vorticity center appears to be at about 12*N, 154*E or so.

[1900hurricane]

Heh, just checked ASCAT. Looks like my position estimate above was pretty good.