Texas Fall-2016

[Yukon Cornelius]

That's a great point and something I was saying yesterday to some co-workers. The month of October this year has really been like mid-September with no signs of it changing. At least for the Austin area, I would like to go back and look at the last few years and see how many months out of ... say ... 36 ... that we averaged above normal temps. We have not had a hard freeze in the last two winters. Seriously. It has been THAT warm here.

Agreed... None of our sensitive plants died back this past winter. If it got down to 32° in this area, it didn't last long enough and for sure did not see a hard freeze.

October really has noticeably changed over the last 2-3 decades. When I was a kid back in the 80s, Halloweens were cooler. Kids these days could not wear the kinds of costumes that my generation did cause it's just too hot. We used to rake leaves and fill up those jack-o-lantern trash bags. Now they don't even sell those locally and haven't for over 10 years.

The seasons have shifted, the question is whether they continue to shift and how extreme specific patterns get?

One thing's for sure. This Halloween is going to be warm. I guess the only upside is I've been able to set up our display quickly without having to deal with rain. As long as we can get some decent rainfall in November. The monthly average would be great!

I remember the jack o lantern trash bags as well. I also remember most halloweens were cold and even having snow while trick or treating a few different times. The times are a changin.

[Tireman4]

Halloween will be toasty. I have only worn shorts once (2004) on Halloween ( trick or treating). It is looking like another.

552
FXUS64 KHGX 261711
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1211 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016


.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected to persist throughout the remainder of the day,
as upper level ridging continues to keep things dry. Winds should remain out
of the southeast, allowing for an increase low level moisture overnight and into tomorrow morning.
Therefore, this low level moisture, along with radiational cooling should allow for patchy fog
to form for the northern terminals tomorrow morning. Expecting VRF
conditions to prevail once the fog lifts, between 12-14z. 43/08

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016/

UPDATE...
Southwestern-based upper ridging will continue its eastward
expansion over the state. This will be the main reason for these
mainly clear and subsequently warmer week days.

Weak onshore flow has drawn slightly higher Gulf moisture inland.
Mainly clear afternoon skies will mix drier 700-950mb layer air
to the surface. This will translate to mid to upper 50F dew points
creating (inland) upper 30 to lower 40 percent afternoon humidities
/lower 50 coastal %RHs. Southeasterly breezes today will de-couple
overnight and wake up from the light east-southeast tomorrow. Nil
rain chances and slightly warmer today with middle 80 maximum
temperatures...an average 5 degrees above late October standards.
Overnight fog development over more rural open expanses or waterways
..locally dense...is likely again Thursday morning. 31

MARINE...
Easterly to southeasterly winds will prevail today with a slight
increase in winds arriving late Thursday through Saturday. A long
fetch will lead to a gradual increase in swells Friday and Saturday.
Rain chances may increase Friday and Saturday (mainly showers though
a thunderstorm can`t be ruled out) as a little richer pool of
moisture spreads westward across the Gulf.
45


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 61 86 63 87 63 / 0 10 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 61 86 61 87 62 / 0 10 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 69 82 71 82 71 / 10 10 10 10 10

[Brent]

GFS continues to be much drier and much warmer again... barely any rain, and no cold air. Maybe seasonal temps if it doesn't lose that in a week.

[weatherdude1108]

On a related, but somewhat lighter note, it cracks me up when our weather professionals throw in a little sarcasm and state:
"Little change is expected with a
lovely 'late summer' weekend coming."
Guess they are tired of this pattern like the rest of us.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
230 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
The upper level trough will broaden across the southern part of
the country over the weekend. Little change is expected with a
lovely "late summer" weekend coming. Look for dry weather with
above normal temperatures. Monday the upper level ridge will begin
to shift to the east turning the flow to the south to southwest.
This will bring deeper moisture to the region. There will be a
slight chance for precipitation over the eastern half of the CWA
Monday. Tuesday an upper level short wave trough may produce
sufficient lift to produce isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Isolated convection will be possible again
Wednesday.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=0

[starsfan65]

I'm tired of this warm weather!!

[Ralph's Weather]

Looks like we have some storms moving south towards I-20 in N and NE TX.

[starsfan65]

Looks like we have some storms moving south towards I-20 in N and NE TX.

How far from I-20?

[weatherdude1108]

Must be nice.

[Brent]

They fell apart before the metro... color me shocked. Fox 4's futurecast at noon had a solid line moving through the metro...

Delkus just hyped up a high of 76 on November 4th as cooler air(the average TODAY is 75)... we are in sad times....

[Tireman4]

Wash. Rinse. Repeat. ( I am hearing rumors of a pattern change and cold front next week).


FXUS64 KHGX 271127
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
627 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

12Z Aviation...Patches of fog around the area should dissipate
between 13 and 14Z. Possible to see brief MVFR fog at IAH, but it
is mainly occurring at the rural sites. NE winds this morning will
become SE late this afternoon generally in the 5 to 8 kt range
later today. 33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Patchy fog to prevail across much of SE TX this morning with some
areas possibly seeing dense fog by sunrise. Cirrus blow-off (from
overnight storms over NTX) moving out and with calm winds and low
(to no) T/Td spreads, we could see this development of fog become
more widespread. No advisory at this time, but cannot rule it out
a bit later this morning. A similar scenario progged for tonight/
tomorrow morning.

Otherwise not a lot of major changes with the overall forecast as
models keep things quiet/warm/dry. The upper level ridge out west
will continue to build this way the next day or so...before flat-
tening out across the Southern Plains over the weekend. Light ESE
winds at the surface will drive the deeper Gulf moisture into the
middle/lower TX coast...along with some isolated/widely scattered
SHRA. Persistence will feature heavily with temperature forecasts
with best (albeit low) POPs remaining over the coastal waters and
points over our far southwestern CWFA. Still preferring the ECMWF
in the extended forecasts - which is still pushing across a well-
defined upper trof/low into the state from the west by next Tues/
Weds. Will also have to begin keeping track (with trends) for the
next cold front, which is currently progged for next Fri. 41

MARINE...
High pressure over the eastern U.S. will maintain an onshore flow
through the middle of next week. A long easterly fetch will lead to
a gradual increase in swells Friday and Saturday. The swells may
exceed 5 feet at times and an SCEC may be required over the weekend
and into early next week. The persistent fetch will also lead to an
increase in tide levels beginning as early as Saturday with an
additional slow increase in tide levels early next week. 33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 85 64 85 64 86 / 10 10 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 85 62 85 62 86 / 10 10 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 82 71 82 71 82 / 10 10 10 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
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Posts: 1300
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
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[Portastorm]

Granted, this is anecdotal but I agree with what a lot of you have posted here about fall being much warmer in recent years. Even as recent as 15 years ago, I can remember here in Austin when Mrs. Portastorm and I bought our first home and we were bagging leaves in mid October with the kids and dog running around in leaf piles ... and it was cool enough for a long-sleeved shirt or even a sweatshirt. So yeah, I wonder where that all went.

We can argue about the WHYs (actually let's not ...) but I don't think there's any doubt that our weather is on average warmer now. I wouldn't mind a reversal of that pattern.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Granted, this is anecdotal but I agree with what a lot of you have posted here about fall being much warmer in recent years. Even as recent as 15 years ago, I can remember here in Austin when Mrs. Portastorm and I bought our first home and we were bagging leaves in mid October with the kids and dog running around in leaf piles ... and it was cool enough for a long-sleeved shirt or even a sweatshirt. So yeah, I wonder where that all went.

We can argue about the WHYs (actually let's not ...) but I don't think there's any doubt that our weather is on average warmer now. I wouldn't mind a reversal of that pattern.

Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems the seasons are changing their "placement' so to speak. I remember many Spring Breaks, and this is in the 90's mind you, (Mid March DFW) with temps around 80, and rarely seeing that in October. Now, it seems that at least for the past five years or so, March and early April have not been all that warm, but the "Fall" is a lot warmer.

[weatherdude1108]

Granted, this is anecdotal but I agree with what a lot of you have posted here about fall being much warmer in recent years. Even as recent as 15 years ago, I can remember here in Austin when Mrs. Portastorm and I bought our first home and we were bagging leaves in mid October with the kids and dog running around in leaf piles ... and it was cool enough for a long-sleeved shirt or even a sweatshirt. So yeah, I wonder where that all went.

We can argue about the WHYs (actually let's not ...) but I don't think there's any doubt that our weather is on average warmer now. I wouldn't mind a reversal of that pattern.

Oh yeah, granted I remember warm Halloweens, sweating in Dracula makeup when I was in elementary and middle school back in the 80s. But I also remember the majority of the time it being cool enough for long sleeves and on the moist and wet side.

I long for the reversal of the pattern. This may be for a different thread, but there are some people in the scientific community that state the Earth is headed for another Grand Solar Minimum or Ice Age, based on the historical record and their own research they have done, and that the warming crowd manipulates the data to their own agenda (makes it appear warmer by lowering the starting point temp), because there is a lot of money being made with global warming. Interesting to see different perspectives.

I don't know what to believe anymore. All I know is that it feels like it has gotten warmer outside than when I was a kid, and the patterns tend to stick around much longer (weeks/months) instead of multi-days.

The earth has a way of balancing itself out, eventually.

[Ntxw]

Very good discussions we've had and many good points. One significant change is the population boom of Texas of the past 20 years. This may not account for all of the changes but on a micro scale over time it has been a huge contributor to warmer temps especially at night for those living in urban areas that are sprawling and even areas around.

Much is anecdotal as Portastorm said.

[Ralph's Weather]

I spent this past Saturday morning in a jacket and raking leaves to fill up jackolatern bags. That 43 degree morning sure was nice. I still think that we are two weeks or so from the big flip to Fall type weather and maybe even cooler. Cold air will have to start pooling up in NW Canada soon for that to happen though.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Granted, this is anecdotal but I agree with what a lot of you have posted here about fall being much warmer in recent years. Even as recent as 15 years ago, I can remember here in Austin when Mrs. Portastorm and I bought our first home and we were bagging leaves in mid October with the kids and dog running around in leaf piles ... and it was cool enough for a long-sleeved shirt or even a sweatshirt. So yeah, I wonder where that all went.

We can argue about the WHYs (actually let's not ...) but I don't think there's any doubt that our weather is on average warmer now. I wouldn't mind a reversal of that pattern.

Oh yeah, granted I remember warm Halloweens, sweating in Dracula makeup when I was in elementary and middle school back in the 80s. But I also remember the majority of the time it being cool enough for long sleeves and on the moist and wet side.

I long for the reversal of the pattern. This may be for a different thread, but there are some people in the scientific community that state the Earth is headed for another Grand Solar Minimum or Ice Age, based on the historical record and their own research they have done, and that the warming crowd manipulates the data to their own agenda (makes it appear warmer by lowering the starting point temp), because there is a lot of money being made with global warming. Interesting to see different perspectives.

I don't know what to believe anymore. All I know is that it feels like it has gotten warmer outside than when I was a kid, and the patterns tend to stick around much longer (weeks/months) instead of multi-days.

The earth has a way of balancing itself out, eventually.

I've ready similar things as well. I also read an interesting article the other day about govt ran long range weather forecasts, especially winter forecasts. Not to open a can of worms but it stated that big business weather forecasts, especially government ran have been known to "warm" their forecasts to further help support the idea of global warming due to the amount of big money associated with it. Granted, it was a single article I read, it was interesting to say the least.

[Ntxw]

I spent this past Saturday morning in a jacket and raking leaves to fill up jackolatern bags. That 43 degree morning sure was nice. I still think that we are two weeks or so from the big flip to Fall type weather and maybe even cooler. Cold air will have to start pooling up in NW Canada soon for that to happen though.

I mostly agree with your notion. Any change to be felt locally will be after the first week of November

[Tireman4]

Just an FYI, the record high for Halloween is 88 in Houston ( Bush) , set in 2004 (it was bad..LOL) and the prognosticated high this year is 86. Something to monitor.

[Portastorm]

Well gang, here is a glimmer of hope ... should this verify, our weather in the middle of November will be wild!

[weatherdude1108]

I think/guess we're getting somewhere in the long-term. I feel like this is just another running commentary based on recent long-term model trends. Anyway, I left out the short term part of this discussion since it is just another rinse...repeat. But here's hoping FALL actually gets here and stays here.


000
FXUS64 KEWX 271933
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
233 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...

Continued above normal temperatures are expected over the weekend
and into next week and a few record high minimums will be quite
possible. Rain chances will increase Monday-Wednesday time-frame
as an upper-level disturbance shifts over the region.

The weekend looks great other than being abnormally warm and
muggy with the entrenched ridging over Texas. Given the
persistent on-shore SE flow during, return Gulf moisutre with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s will advect NW into Texas. This
will cause plenty of morning clouds, patchy fog, and warm
mornings. Moisture will mix out during the afternoons, and with a
drier 700-500mb layer in place, instability will remain low in
the capped atmosphere. Therefore, dry conditions are expected to
continue. This will start to change going into early next week.

The mid- and upper-level ridging will break down early next week
as a stronger trough and jet streak infiltrate the western US.
Upper level energy will shift over the region Monday and linger
through Wednesday in the ridge weakness. Surface dewpoints are
progged to increase even further into the upper 60s to near 70F
with PWATS reaching 1.6-1.9" central and west. With weak to
moderate instability and higher columnar moisture available,
convective showers and thunderstorms will be possible each
afternoon. Given the shear axis in place, the convective activity
could linger longer into the overnight and develop earlier in the
morning outside of the general diurnal convective window. Overall,
forcing will be weak to moderate and instability will be weak to
moderate. There could be some locally heavy downpours with the
thunderstorms given the higher than normal PWATS but a
concentrated flooding hazard does not appear to be in place at
this time. The stronger synoptic forcing looks to remain in the
plains.

&&