Texas Fall-2016

[gboudx]

Technically Ntwx posted SOI crash before JB. Maybe Joe reads this board.

[Ptarmigan]

. Given, it was not as warm back then than it is now which will likely be the warmest October on record.

Yeah, I would agree. Your analysis has been spot on so many years now. In Houston, I fear this October will be in the top 3 at least. The warmest was 2004. That Halloween was brutal .

IAH Warmest Octobers

77.5 2004
76.7 1963
76.5 1947

Interesting to see that 1963 and 2004 had El Nino developing. 1963 started as La Nina and went El Nino. That winter was quite cold.

[Ntxw]

More fantasy from GFS. A pattern like this would be pretty chilly





I'm not too worried or take much of lalaland, only that there is high volatility the past several days from the runs. Meaning there is likely a change-a-comin

[Brent]

GFS for the first time has a freeze at DFW on November 13th

[vbhoutex]

Technically Ntwx posted SOI crash before JB. Maybe Joe reads this board.

You laugh? Most people have no idea how far and wide this board is read. Past that my typing fingers are sealed.

[vbhoutex]

. Given, it was not as warm back then than it is now which will likely be the warmest October on record.

Yeah, I would agree. Your analysis has been spot on so many years now. In Houston, I fear this October will be in the top 3 at least. The warmest was 2004. That Halloween was brutal .

IAH Warmest Octobers

77.5 2004
76.7 1963
76.5 1947

Interesting to see that 1963 and 2004 had El Nino developing. 1963 started as La Nina and went El Nino. That winter was quite cold.

If this October isn't one of the top 3, if not No. 1 warmest ever in Houston, I will be very surprised. We have had less than an inch of rain this month also. No Fall for Houston, and I am starting to wonder about Winter.

[TheAustinMan]

If this October isn't one of the top 3, if not No. 1 warmest ever in Houston, I will be very surprised. We have had less than an inch of rain this month also. No Fall for Houston, and I am starting to wonder about Winter.

This October is actually #9 for Houston since records began in 1889 for mean October temperature, and #9 driest.

Rankings Since 1940, Mean October Temperature

CITY OCT. AVG RANK
---- -------- ----
BROWNSVILLE 80.3°F #2
LAREDO 79.4°F #3 (no data before 1965)
CORPUS CHRISTI 78.9°F #3
GALVESTON 78.6°F #2
HOUSTON 77.5°F #6
AUSTIN 75.7°F #3
DEL RIO 75.0°F #5
VICTORIA 74.8°F #11
DALLAS 74.6°F #1
SAN ANTONIO 74.5°F #8
FT. WORTH 74.0°F #1
WACO 73.3°F #4
HUNTSVILLE 72.6°F #7
MIDLAND/ODESSA 72.5°F #1
PARIS 72.1°F #1
SAN ANGELO 71.7°F #2
ABILENE 71.2°F #6
WICHITA FALLS 69.4°F #5
LUBBOCK 67.4°F #1
AMARILLO 66.1°F #1

[Tireman4]

If this October isn't one of the top 3, if not No. 1 warmest ever in Houston, I will be very surprised. We have had less than an inch of rain this month also. No Fall for Houston, and I am starting to wonder about Winter.

This October is actually #9 for Houston since records began in 1889 for mean October temperature, and #9 driest.

Rankings Since 1940, Mean October Temperature

CITY OCT. AVG RANK
---- -------- ----
BROWNSVILLE 80.3°F #2
LAREDO 79.4°F #3 (no data before 1965)
CORPUS CHRISTI 78.9°F #3
GALVESTON 78.6°F #2
HOUSTON 77.5°F #6
AUSTIN 75.7°F #3
DEL RIO 75.0°F #5
VICTORIA 74.8°F #11
DALLAS 74.6°F #1
SAN ANTONIO 74.5°F #8
FT. WORTH 74.0°F #1
WACO 73.3°F #4
HUNTSVILLE 72.6°F #7
MIDLAND/ODESSA 72.5°F #1
PARIS 72.1°F #1
SAN ANGELO 71.7°F #2
ABILENE 71.2°F #6
WICHITA FALLS 69.4°F #5
LUBBOCK 67.4°F #1
AMARILLO 66.1°F #1

I swear I see a number 6 by Houston or my eyes playing tricks on me. Remember, we still have two more days to go in October ( and they are progged at 86)

[Portastorm]

For my Austin-area friends, keep the faith. All of the computer models for this week show anywhere from a 1/2" to 2" of rain by Friday morning. So, it will rain ... at least some. Right?!

Oh ... and GO TRIBE!

[Tireman4]

For my Austin-area friends, keep the faith. All of the computer models for this week show anywhere from a 1/2" to 2" of rain by Friday morning. So, it will rain ... at least some. Right?!

Oh ... and GO TRIBE!

Well, I am hoping for rain in the holler...( Houston). it is currently...87 degrees on October 30th, 2016. The only saving grace is the dewpoint is a manageable 58 degrees. The normal temperature for this date is 78 degrees. Yea....Sigh. As I alluded to before, the record high for Halloween is 88. The progged high for Halloween is 86. It will be close....sigh..

[TheAustinMan]

I swear I see a number 6 by Houston or my eyes playing tricks on me. Remember, we still have two more days to go in October ( and they are progged at 86)

No, your eyes aren't playing tricks. #9 is the all time ranking (in Houston's case, since 1889), but the list I've put up is from 1940 to the present to ensure that the records are a bit more reliable.

[Tireman4]

I swear I see a number 6 by Houston or my eyes playing tricks on me. Remember, we still have two more days to go in October ( and they are progged at 86)

No, your eyes aren't playing tricks. #9 is the all time ranking (in Houston's case, since 1889), but the list I've put up is from 1940 to the present to ensure that the records are a bit more reliable.

Ohhhhh...I thought it was trick or treat...see what I did there..

[weatherdude1108]

For my Austin-area friends, keep the faith. All of the computer models for this week show anywhere from a 1/2" to 2" of rain by Friday morning. So, it will rain ... at least some. Right?!

Oh ... and GO TRIBE!

I am keeping the faith Porta!


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
230 PM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Tuesday an upper level trough will dig down along the west coast
while a high closes off over the Gulf. This will bring a short
wave trough through the pattern over Texas which will bring a
chance for showers and thunderstorms. A low will close off at the
southern end of the upper trough over the southwestern states and
this will stall the pattern. This will keep us in an unstable
pattern with POPs each day through the end of the period. A cold
front will move to our CWA Thursday and then stall and dissipate.
This will help focus convection and looks like the day with the
best chance for widespread rain. Rain chances will fall off to
slight for the end of the week.

[Brent]

the GFS is becoming consistent with the coldest air of the season towards Veterans Day... it's still very far out, but several runs have had 30s in the DFW metro.

Until then... it looks like temperatures will slowly decrease closer to seasonal averages towards next weekend. Rain chances still look inconsistent this week with a bigger storm around Election Day.

[gboudx]

the GFS is becoming consistent with the coldest air of the season towards Veterans Day... it's still very far out, but several runs have had 30s in the DFW metro.

Until then... it looks like temperatures will slowly decrease closer to seasonal averages towards next weekend. Rain chances still look inconsistent this week with a bigger storm around Election Day.

Heh.

[Tireman4]

This Halloween will be a warm one in Houston. Progged at 86 for a high..77 by the time the Trick or Treaters hit the streets. The record high is 88 set back in 2004.


161
FXUS64 KHGX 311205 CCA
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
705 AM CDT Mon Oct 31 2016

.AVIATION...
Much like the past few mornings, the main concern for the 31/12Z
TAFs centers around fog at the Southeast Texas terminals this
morning.

Split channel satellite imager shows fog continuing to expand
northward of the Interstate 10 corridor, with visibilities ranging
from VFR to VLIFR as the fog spreads northward. VFR conditions at
Houston IAH and College Station now are expected to briefly drop
to IFR at IAH and VLIFR at CLL as fog spreads into the terminals
from the south and east. Expect conditions to improve back to VFR
15-17Z, with south to southeast winds 10 knots or less prevailing
at all terminals. Another round of fog development is possible
early Tuesday morning, with greatest potential for category
restrictions at the terminals north and west of Houston (CLL, UTS,
CXO, SGR, LBX).

Huffman

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 AM CDT Mon Oct 31 2016/

DISCUSSION...
High pressure over E TX/LA/MS dominating the weather with light
winds and mostly clear skies early this morning. Areas of
fog/dense fog forming mainly along and south of the I-10 corridor
but will likely expand northward through 7 am...faster expansion
west of the I-45 corridor. By 9-10 am expect the fog to have mixed
out and dissipate but with some scattered cloudiness remaining.
Another warm after on tap with highs in the mid 80s inland still
far above normal but not into the records. The ridge over the area
will be weakening and shifting east which will allow the deeper
moisture pooled over the Gulf to the east of the upper shear axis
near Brownsville to nose up into the Matagorda Bay region late
this afternoon which could lead to some isolated showers there.

Moisture will be on the increase across the region Tuesday morning
and will probably see another round of fog across the area. In
addition scattered showers transitioning over to showers and
thunderstorms by mid morning first near the coast then expanding
north over the area with heating (mainly west of I-45). Rain
chances continue on Wednesday mainly driven by daytime heating and
morning speed convergence near the coast. Elevated tide levels on
tap for the first half of the week. Thursday a cold front slowly
sags south through the state and prefrontal troughing may help to
lessen the rain chances with winds backing before the fropa early
Friday morning. Tuesday and Wednesday have a chance of seeing some
brief heavy downpours with slow moving storms but then by Thursday
coverage will probably be lower and amounts lighter.

1025-1030mb high builds into lower MS valley Friday through
Sunday and drier weather should return to SETX but with more
cloud cover so probably a smaller diurnal range over the west and
larger in the east with the greater dry air and lesser cloud
cover. The extended guidance starting to point toward an
interesting weather pattern for SETX Monday-Wednesday with a
vigorous upper low bowling balling into TX with the potential for
generous rainfall over the eastern half of TX or possibly focused
closer to the coast...maybe even some severe potential but of
course it is fall and the models haven`t been verifying well
beyond 144 hours. Stay tuned.

MARINE...
Generally easterly flow continues across the coastal waters early
this morning, but have begun to see winds across the offshore waters
begin to back more towards the northeast as a weak coastal trough
has developed off the Lower/Middle Texas coast. This coastal trough
will serve as a focus for isolated showers across the western waters
today, with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to develop
Tuesday through Thursday as deeper Gulf moisture and an upper level
disturbance approach the waters.

Marine hazards through late week will center around periods of
elevated seas and onshore winds resulting in caution flags as well
as rip current and tidal issues along beaches. Seas currently range
from 3 feet at Buoy 42035 to 5 feet at Buoy 42019 and expect seas
generally in the 2-5 ft range to persist through mid to late week as
onshore flow continues. Long period swells will continue to result
in an elevated risk for rip currents and elevated tides along the
Upper Texas coast, with tidal guidance showing levels rising into
the 3-3.3 foot range above MLLW at times of high tide later this
evening. This would result in minor overwash on Highway 87 at
Highway 124 on Bolivar Peninsula as well as minor beach flooding for
Gulf-facing beaches at times of high tide over the next few days. A
cold front looks to reach the northwest Gulf by the upcoming
weekend, allowing for decreasing waves and tides as it passes.

Huffman


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 87 67 84 69 82 / 0 0 30 20 40
Houston (IAH) 86 68 82 70 83 / 0 0 20 20 20
Galveston (GLS) 82 74 82 74 81 / 0 0 20 20 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for the
following zones: Austin...Brazoria...Brazos...Burleson...
Chambers...Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston...Grimes...
Harris...Houston...Jackson...Liberty...Madison...
Matagorda...Montgomery...Polk...San Jacinto...Trinity...
Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 AM CDT this morning
for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High
Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...45
Aviation/Marine...14

[gboudx]

Here's an update from jeff. I left out the part of near record heat this week.

Very Long Range:
As we look for an end to this seemingly never ending summer…long range models are starting to indicate a significant upper level pattern change over the US starting next week and continuing into December. This change may result in a significant amount of colder air invading the US along with a more active storm track. Initial storm system next week will bear close watch as latest guidance suggests a strong compact upper level low barreling across TX next week with potentially some very active weather.

[Tireman4]

HGX AFD

000
FXUS64 KHGX 311819
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
119 PM CDT Mon Oct 31 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will persist through the afternoon into this
evening. Water Vapor satellite loops show that moisture has been
on the rise along the coastal areas west of Houston and Galveston.
This may help to increase cloudiness over KGLS and KLBX tonight
and possible as far inland as KHOU, KIAH, and KSGR. The surface
ridge over Southeast Texas should continue in place tonight.
Outside of areas where any mid level cloudiness develops, do
expect conditions to become conducive once again for fog
development. If so, IFR to LIFR will be possible mainly between
10Z and 15Z. A model consensus has the fog development mainly from
the I-10 corridor inland -- KIAH, KCXO, KUTS, and KCLL -- with
KHOU and KSGR on the edge of possibility. Any fog and low ceilings
that do develop should lift by or shortly after 16Z on Tuesday.

40

&&

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Catching up on the thread some. I was in beautiful Denver/Golden this past weekend experiencing their warmest October ever with them. It was beautiful.

Loving the 1983 analogs! What was the SAI like in '83-'84? I think us winter lovers have been extremely patient. Time for some cooler weather.

[Brent]

Definitely looks like November will more resemble fall after the first couple of days... the end is in sight. Looks like a decent rain chance every few days too.