WPAC: MEARI - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Still needs more work to do.

[euro6208]

EURO goes out to sea with this while GFS is aiming for Samar/Bicol region.

[euro6208]

90W INVEST 161101 0000 10.8N 141.7E WPAC 20 1004

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

Remains MEDIUM.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.8N 144.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 140.5E, APPROXIMATELY
260 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 312158Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE FURTHER ILLUSTRATES THE VERY BROAD NATURE OF THE
DISTURBANCE AND LIMITED CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME LIMITED DEVELOPMENT AS THE
DISTURBANCE TRACKS WESTWARD AND ABSORBS THE ENERGY OF INVEST 91W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

EURO deepens this to only 991mb but a very large system at that as it goes out to sea.

NAVGEM in the same wagon.

[euro6208]

GFS is back in making Meari a significant typhoon for the Philippines...Eastern Samar with possibly Tacloban in play here...

[euro6208]

HWRF literally stalls this for 2-3 days.

[euro6208]

TXPQ29 KNES 012057
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90W)

B. 01/2030Z

C. 12.3N

D. 139.5E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/1.5/S0.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMI/AMSU

H. REMARKS...DT=1.5 BASED ON .3 BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=1.5. MET=1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

01/1717Z 12.1N 139.8E SSMI
01/1720Z 12.2N 139.7E AMSU


...SCHWARTZ

[euro6208]

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 020208
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1140 AM CHST WED NOV 2 2016

PMZ161-PMZ171-030200-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-
1140 AM CHST WED NOV 2 2016

...WET AND WINDY MONSOON PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS YAP AND PALAU...

A CIRCULATION IS LOCATED ABOUT 240 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF YAP NEAR
13N139E. DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WEST MONSOONAL FLOW IS BECOMING BETTER
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND YAP STATE.

PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO
AROUND 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR WESTERN MICRONESIA THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

MARINE CONDITIONS WILL FURTHER DETERIORATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING WINDS. WINDS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT WILL
PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION...SEAS WILL LIKELY
BECOME HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT OR THURSDAY WHILE SURF
REACHES HAZARDOUS LEVELS ALONG SOUTH AND WEST FACING REEFS TONIGHT.
TRAVEL BY BOAT IS NOT RECOMMENDED UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING ANY OUTDOOR OR MARINE ACTIVITIES OR INTER-ISLAND
TRAVEL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BE AWARE OF CURRENT MARINE
CONDITIONS AND STAY INFORMED ON THE LATEST FORECASTS AND UPDATED
ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICES.

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE POSTED ON THE
WFO GUAM WEB PAGE AT WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/ (ALL LOWER CASE).

$$

AYDLETT

[1900hurricane]

WTPN22 PGTW 020430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/012300Z NOV 16//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 012300)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.3N 139.7E TO 14.2N 134.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
020400Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N
139.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.9N 140.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 139.2E, APPROXIMATELY
200 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 020043Z METOP-A 89GHZ
IMAGE INDICATES SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD CENTER WITH
FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF
THE LLCC. A 020044Z ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION
WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS AND ISOLATED 25 KNOT WINDS CONFINED TO THE
NORTH QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
WITH BROAD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC
MODELS INDICATE A WESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
030430Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 149.0E.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

GFS with 948mb Meari nearing Samar on Super Typhoon Haiyan's 3 year anniversary...

Track wise, almost a carbon copy through the Philippines and Vietnam.

[euro6208]

Wow. HWRF explodes this big time. 915mb pressure and winds +160 knots.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

[euro6208]

After repeated runs of going out to sea, EURO kinda *caved* in to GFS now showing a more westward track towards the Philippines. Stronger too after showing just a weak TS's.

[dexterlabio]

If ever this system ends up tracking across the Philippines, I doubt it will be able to keep a high intensity.. The dry northeast monsoon has started to blow across the country, which is another obstacle for future tropical cyclones in the area.

[mrbagyo]

Explosive convection

[1900hurricane]

A recent ASCAT pass puts the center on the eastern side of the cold convective tops.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MikeAdcockWx/status/793896774096125952