Texas Fall-2016

[dhweather]

If the GFS determined elections, well, I'll just say, there's lots of RED for the next week. Total torch.

Took the kids for trunk or treat at church, lots of melted chocolate.


but hey, in 384 hours, the 12Z GFS has heights at 545, lows around 40. Right.

[Brent]

GFS is pretty seasonal next week, highs around 70 through Election Day, and then lows near 40 still showing up around Veterans Day weekend

[aggiecutter]

[Ralph's Weather]

The long expected flip is coming. Warm this week, below average next week and likely cold beyond all courtesy of the PV split and displacement. Look to the GoA to see if it gets just chilly or pretty cold for late Nov.

[Ntxw]

Nothing has really changed my thinking. Still very warm the first week of November and then changes occur. Rainfall will depend on placement of cutoff ULL which is always a tough forecast. the GFS/Euro dry vs wet runs are highly dependent on if the low kicks out or buries into the southwest. Gradually the pattern will shift to where more polar air can move southward. Get through this week and we should be in business.

In the meantime...

[Brent]

yeah my confidence is growing that we're going to see a cold snap towards Veterans Day and it's probably just the beginning based on the other signals.

Almost there guys... the hot October is about to be history.

[Ntxw]

yeah my confidence is growing that we're going to see a cold snap towards Veterans Day and it's probably just the beginning based on the other signals.

Almost there guys... the hot October is about to be history.

The Euro weeklies today shows a fairly stout pattern for release of the season's first polar front past mid November, a little more than just below normal. Still way out though but curious no less.

[Brent]

Change is coming:

[weatherdude1108]

It seems a change is in progress. Interesting!

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
333 AM CDT Tue Nov 1 2016

.SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...

Continued well above normal temperatures expected today and
Wednesday with rounds of morning fog and clouds. There could be
patchy drizzle during the morning hours and an increase in
isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms along and
east of I-35 both days.

Water vapor channels currently reveal and mid-and upper-level low
over south-central Texas overtop a moist boundary layer. Low
clouds have developed mostly region wide with the exception of the
Rio Grande Plains. With such low-level saturation in place, expect
patchy areas of fog and even some light drizzle being possible
through mid-morning. PWATs will increase across the southeast
plains and thus mixed-layer instability will as well. Greater
instability along with residual mid-layer shortwave troughing
should allow for slightly greater coverage of showers and a few
thunderstorms east of I-35 this afternoon. NAM/GFS BUFR soundings
suggest greater capping towards the I-35 corridor during the
afternoon. So as storms develop in the coastal plains, they should
weaken into mostly light and moderate showers as they approach the
I-35 corridor this afternoon.

Overnight - expected a repeat of low clouds and pockets of
drizzle as moisture climbs higher and farther west. The mid- and
upper-level troughing appear to shift NE by Wednesday but given
higher instability over a greater area, another round of diurnal
instability driven convection will likely occur Wednesday
afternoon for much of the region other than the immediate Rio
Grande area. There does not appear any great concentration of
rainfall but localized downpours although brief, could be heavy at
times.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...

[i]Rain chances will increase further on Thursday as a weak cool
front approaches and passes through the region. Rain and
thunderstorm chances increase to 50-60% Thursday but again,
overall rain amounts should be limited to less than an inch. Drier
weather is expected for the weekend with models needing to be
watched for early and mid next week for the potential of a heavier
rainfall episode.

Stronger troughing across the Great Lakes and stronger surface
high pressure in the Central Plains in its wake will force a
back-door front through Thursday into early Friday morning.
Overall forcing will be lacking with only weak isentropic upglide
in place. The extra clouds and rain showers should help keep us
cooler but we`ll still remain near normals for this time of year.
Drier air will pivot in from the NE for the weekend but it will be
short-lived with southerly flow returning by Sunday afternoon
ahead of series of passing troughs in the Central Plains.

Models and subsequent sensible weather will need to be monitored
for mid next week as a potentially deeper trough could pivot
across Texas. GFS dprog/dT has had a decent handle on this
solution with the EC not being as consistent. However, the latest
00Z EC has started to trend towards the GFS that indicates the
potential for heavier rain episode mid-next week. Will continue
to monitor these trends and if higher and heavier rain chances
come to fruition.[/i]

[Ntxw]

For the northern tier of the state 80s today and tomorrow and that may be it with 80s for awhile. Above normal anomlies should continue into next week but because of upper low influences it'll be a tad cooler, but 70s in Nov is above normal still. The rest of the country will be much above normal.

Rutgers snowlab hasn't updated latest yet but the daily anomalies will likely show a top 3 snow extent/advance as October ended. Its possible the number may be 2nd behind only 1976. The top tier snow advance years (76, 02, 09, 14) were all very generous regarding snowfall for DFW. 2012/13 is another recent year with very high SAI. Though total snowfall wasn't impressive it did snow on Christmas and several other small events that year. The really strange thing is, those years were weak or moderate El Ninos. Perhaps it is a sign the jet stream may be more active than we thought in the mid lats?

Note: 2013 was a very high extent year in terms of cover but it was a much more gradual growth

[Brent]

GFS has big changes post-election day

highs in the 40s or around 50 in DFW next Thursday The 540 line briefly makes an appearance. Some snow appears in Arkansas and Tennessee and North Alabama after it passes us.

Also the GFS is below normal the entire run after that... quite a few mornings in the 30s on the meteogram.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Has high 30's for even Northern SE Tx areas for next week. Ready for my first winter model watch!

[gto67]

Finally getting some rain in Weima

[Tireman4]

Well, I was surprised. Not shocked, but surprised. This was the 9th warmest October at IAH. Felt worse. Onward to a cold November!

[Ntxw]

My crystal ball says Thanksgivings on forward to Christmas Wxman57 will need an igloo to stay warm

[Tireman4]

My crystal ball says Thanksgivings on forward to Christmas Wxman57 will need an igloo to stay warm

If your prediction holds up, you are my met of the year!

[JayDT]

My crystal ball says Thanksgivings on forward to Christmas Wxman57 will need an igloo to stay warm

Well this post just got me really excited! So im guessing things are looking good in the long range?

[Ntxw]

My crystal ball says Thanksgivings on forward to Christmas Wxman57 will need an igloo to stay warm

Well this post just got me really excited! So im guessing things are looking good in the long range?

Its just a fun poke at wxman57! There's good reason to believe the holidays will be colder/more interesting than last year...

[Ntxw]

To follow up on the ENSO analogs. Again 1983 is the top when looking at SSTA spatially. 1995 comes a close second except that was more of a Nina than the Nada of 1983.

I really like the 1983 analog because as you know with the barely moving Nina. Also that year there was a disconnect with the atmosphere that was still feeling the effects of the exited super Nino the year prior. We can see evidence of that the same with the past 30 days with the disconnect of the SOI





That deepening warm water south of the Aleutians is telling us the Aleutian high is going to make it's presence known very soon.

[TheAustinMan]

A thunderstorm, along with a few small cells, have decided to greet some of the folk in the Austin area and around South Central Texas.