WPAC: Tropical Depression 99W

[1900hurricane]

Another invest has developed to 97W's east, near where 97W first developed. Not much convection at the moment, but it does have good low level vorticity. Perhaps something to watch down the road as it follows 97W to the west?

As of 00:00 UTC Oct 27, 2016:

Location: 13.1°N 173.5°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb

[euro6208]

EURO and GFS don't develop this.

[1900hurricane]

It looks to me that some guidance does, but it recurves through a weakness in the subtropical ridge almost immediately.

[mrbagyo]

Convection is again on the increase.

[euro6208]

99W INVEST 161029 1800 9.9N 164.9E WPAC 15 1010

[euro6208]

EURO briefly develops this into a weak TS as it recurves.

[euro6208]

000
WWMY80 PGUM 312336
SPSMY

DDHHMM 312326
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
930 AM CHST TUE NOV 1 2016

GUZ001>004-PMZ151>154-020200-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-MARIANAS COASTAL WATERS-
930 AM CHST TUE NOV 1 2016

...A WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE REMAINS EAST OF THE MARIANAS...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST OF GUAM...CENTERED NEAR
13N152E...IS MOVING TOWARD THE MARIANAS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS
SYSTEM PROGRESSES. THIS WET PATTERN COULD PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
IT CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING ANY OUTDOOR OR MARINE ACTIVITIES...BE AWARE OF
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND STAY INFORMED ON THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND
POSSIBLE ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICES. PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE ARE POSTED ON THE WFO GUAM WEB PAGE AT
WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/ (ALL LOWER CASE).

$$

KLEESCHULTE

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

99W INVEST 161101 0000 12.4N 152.3E WPAC 15 1010

[euro6208]

Straight to MEDIUM.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
13.1N 151.2E, APPROXIMATELY 380 NM EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM.
ANIMATED MSI DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LLCC BENEATH WELL DEFINED MID-
LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING. A 312051Z GPM 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
ORGANIZED CURVED BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING
INTO THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ANTICYCLONE
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST PROVIDING STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH
LOW VWS. GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT SHOW SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AT THIS
TIME AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE MARIANA
ISLANDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

EURO still liking the idea that this will become Ma-on just north of the Marianas.

NAVGEM agrees.

[euro6208]

TXPQ28 KNES 012107
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99W)

B. 01/2030Z

C. 16.0N

D. 147.6E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1/0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/VIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...DT=1.0 BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN DEFINED BY LOOSLY
DEFINED CLOUD LINES, PROXIMITY LESS THAN 1.25 DG FROM OVERCAST, SMALL
SIZE. PT=1.0. MET=1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

01/1719Z 15.8N 148.5E AMSU


...SCHWARTZ

[euro6208]

WTPN21 PGTW 012300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.8N 149.5E TO 17.9N 144.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 012230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.3N 149.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.1N 151.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 149.0E, APPROXIMATELY
258 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND ELONGATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION OVER
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SEMI-CIRCLE. A 011810Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS THE BULK OF CONVECTION LOCATED OVER AND TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WITH STRONG DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(10-15KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30C). GLOBAL MODELS
ARE MIXED WITH DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE
NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
022300Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 020027

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99W (E OF GUAM)

B. 02/0000Z

C. 15.89N

D. 146.85E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.5/1.5 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. .30 WRAP YIELDS A DT
OF 1.5. PT AND MET ARE CURRENTLY UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
01/2026Z 15.75N 147.65E SSMS


MARTINEZ

[euro6208]

Looking very good.

[euro6208]

000
WWMY80 PGUM 020028
SPSMY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1030 AM CHST WED NOV 2 2016

GUZ001>004-PMZ151>154-030200-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-MARIANAS COASTAL WATERS-
1030 AM CHST WED NOV 2 2016

...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE CNMI...

BASED ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
CENTERED ABOUT 110 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN NEAR 16N147E IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THIS DISTURBANCE IS THE SUBJECT
OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER. DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED TO BE SLOW AND NO
DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MARIANA ISLANDS AT THIS POINT.
IT SHOULD PASS JUST NORTH OF SAIPAN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SAIPAN AND TINIAN WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN OVER THE ISLANDS THIS EVENING. SHOWERY WEATHER SHOULD
GRADUALLY DEVELOP OVER ROTA AND GUAM LATER TONIGHT. ONCE THIS SYSTEM
HAS PULLED WEST OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A
MONSOON PATTERN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA AND PROLONG THE
WET WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING ANY OUTDOOR OR MARINE ACTIVITIES...BE AWARE OF
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND STAY INFORMED ON THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND
POSSIBLE ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICES. PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE ARE POSTED ON THE WFO GUAM WEB PAGE AT
WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/ (ALL LOWER CASE).

$$

CHAN

[1900hurricane]

WTPN21 PGTW 012300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.8N 149.5E TO 17.9N 144.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 012230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.3N 149.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.1N 151.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 149.0E, APPROXIMATELY
258 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND ELONGATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION OVER
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SEMI-CIRCLE. A 011810Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS THE BULK OF CONVECTION LOCATED OVER AND TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WITH STRONG DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(10-15KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30C). GLOBAL MODELS
ARE MIXED WITH DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE
NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
022300Z.//
NNNN

TD
Issued at 04:00 UTC, 2 November 2016

<Analysis at 03 UTC, 2 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N16°10' (16.2°)
E146°35' (146.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

<Forecast for 15 UTC, 2 November>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N17°25' (17.4°)
E145°00' (145.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 03 UTC, 3 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N18°25' (18.4°)
E143°30' (143.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

[euro6208]

Latest 00Z GFS still not as enthusiastic as the others. Doesn't develop this.

[euro6208]

[1900hurricane]

TCFA has been taken back down. Despite this, 99W actually appears to have a pretty good surface circulation on microwave imagery, although it is well removed from the convection.