Texas Fall-2016

[JDawg512]

Yup, seeing lots of lightning with this storm. Finally a new month and a new weather pattern. Keep the rain coming.

[weatherdude1108]

A thunderstorm, along with a few small cells, have decided to greet some of the folk in the Austin area and around South Central Texas.

Heard thunder earlier. We got 0.01 out of the action up here.

[Ralph's Weather]

To follow up on the ENSO analogs. Again 1983 is the top when looking at SSTA spatially. 1995 comes a close second except that was more of a Nina than the Nada of 1983.

I really like the 1983 analog because as you know with the barely moving Nina. Also that year there was a disconnect with the atmosphere that was still feeling the effects of the exited super Nino the year prior. We can see evidence of that the same with the past 30 days with the disconnect of the SOI

That deepening warm water south of the Aleutians is telling us the Aleutian high is going to make it's presence known very soon.

Current SST anomalies do seem to match 1983 pretty closely over the Atlantic and Pacific. The Indian is not a match, but I do not think that matters much. Below are maps comparing current Arctic sea ice to 1983.



The current map I had was outdated so see a few posts down for the current state.

[Ntxw]

I really like the 1983 analog because as you know with the barely moving Nina. Also that year there was a disconnect with the atmosphere that was still feeling the effects of the exited super Nino the year prior. We can see evidence of that the same with the past 30 days with the disconnect of the SOI

That deepening warm water south of the Aleutians is telling us the Aleutian high is going to make it's presence known very soon.

Current SST anomalies do seem to match 1983 pretty closely over the Atlantic and Pacific. The Indian is not a match, but I do not think that matters much. Below are maps comparing current Arctic sea ice to 1983.

I agree the Indian Ocean isn't a great match. But it's tough finding a year that matches all three major tropical Oceans, 1983 is the easiest one to pick out as of today. The most important Ocean is of course, as always, the Pacific for Texas because we are downstream from it.

[weatherdude1108]

This pattern is similar to a couple years ago at this time.

http://texasstormchasers.com/2014/11/03 ... rain-rain/

[Tireman4]

From HGX AFD this morning:


000
FXUS64 KHGX 021135
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
635 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016

.AVIATION...
IFR cigs have developed at KCXO and KUTS but for the most part,
visibility and cigs have remained VFR. could still get some patchy
fog through 14z and some MVFR-IFR cigs early this morning. Clouds
should begin to mix out and cigs should rise to between 035-045
feet by late morning. Daytime heating will trigger some late
morning/afternoon shra/tsra today. Fcst soundings don`t show much
capping so should get some thunder later today. Precip should end
between 23-01z. RAP looks a bit overdone and did not initialize
well so leaned toward the HRRR and Texas Tech WRF for TAFs. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Unseasonably warm conditions will continue today across Southeast
Texas, with temperatures as of 4 AM CDT still in the upper 60s to
low 70s. These temperatures are about 10 degrees warmer than
normal temperatures for this time of year and both Houston Hobby
and Galveston have the potential to set record high minimum
temperatures this morning. In addition to the warm start to the
day, rain chances will also increase across the region as waves of
moisture spread inland from the Gulf. Area radars show light warm
air advection showers developing across portions of South Central
Texas associated with weak upglide from a 20-25 knot low level jet
(as seen on the Ft. Hood VAD Wind Profiler). Showers were also
developing farther east south of the Sabine Pass in an area of
speed convergence.

CIRA layer precipitable water vapor imagery shows precipitable
water values anywhere from 1.4 to 1.8 inches just off the Upper
Texas Coast this morning, with a core of deeper moisture sitting
just off the southern Louisiana coast. As this plume of higher
moisture advects east today, expect showers and thunderstorms to
expand into the eastern coastal waters, building north into the
extreme eastern portions of the forecast area. Daytime heating
will allow scattered shower and thunderstorm coverage to expand
inland as this moisture pushes farther into the region. With
precipitable water values climbing to near 1.8 inches this
afternoon, cannot rule out brief heavy downpours in stronger
activity... but anticipate most folks who see rain to simply
receive some much needed light to moderate rainfall. Otherwise,
expect high temperatures to rise into the mid 80s with Galveston
potentially setting another record high temperature this
afternoon.

Expect any activity that develops to wane inland with loss of
heating tonight, but coastal convergence will encourage scattered
showers and thunderstorms to linger along the coast and across
coastal waters during the overnight hours. Mostly cloudy skies
will keep overnight lows elevated again in the upper 60s to mid
70s. Both Galveston and Houston Hobby (again) may tie or set
record high minimum temperatures on Thursday morning. More
information about these records is contained in the climate
section below.

Analysis of 00Z radiosonde observations showed a weak shortwave
trough over the ArkLaTex, with upper ridging building over the
southeastern U.S. and an upper trough located over the Great
Basin. As a mid-level speed max over California rounds the base of
this trough later today, model guidance continues to advertise a
cut-off low developing over Arizona and dropping south into New
Mexico. This low looks to meander over northwest Mexico over the
next few days, with its parent trough translating east towards the
Great Plains later today. This trough will provide enough forcing
to nudge a cold front into the Texas Panhandle tonight, with the
front making additional progress across Texas during the day
Thursday.

Thursday will also be another warm day ahead of the cold front
with highs rising into the low to mid 80s. Scattered to numerous
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are expected again
Thursday ahead of the front, with some of this activity again
capable of brief heavy rainfall. The cold front will move across
the region Thursday night into Friday, with rain chances ending
from northeast to southwest across the forecast area behind the
front. Drier air will lag behind the front a bit and not arrive
until Friday night, and areas west of Interstate 45 may still have
enough available moisture during the day Friday to get an isolated
daytime shower or thunderstorm to develop. Otherwise, expect highs
Friday in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Upper ridging over the Gulf will expand westward over Texas
through the end of the work week and into the beginning of the
weekend as an upper trough moves into the eastern U.S., with dry
and pleasant conditions expected across the region. Expect cool
mornings with lows in the 50s (low 60s along the coast) and
afternoon temperatures in the 70s.

As the cutoff low over northwest Mexico lifts towards the Rocky
Mountains by late weekend, it looks to shear into an open wave.
Gradually returning moisture and lift from this passing upper
feature will result in increasing rain chances for the western
counties at the beginning of next week. Medium range guidance is
continuing to advertise a second upper wave reaching the Southern
Plains by next Tuesday, cutting it off over West Texas. Will need
to continue to watch the evolution of this feature as where this
low is located will influence mid-week temperatures and rain
chances. For now have trended close to climatology, with 20-30
PoPs in the extended until better model consensus is achieved.

Huffman

MARINE...
High pressure over the eastern U.S. and lower pressures over the
Texas panhandle will produce a moderate onshore flow today.
Elevated seas/swells will persist today as a long fetch of E-SE
winds prevail across the Gulf of Mexico. Will maintain a SCEC for
the offshore waters as seas are expected to remain near 5 feet.
Tide levels remain 1.0 to 1.4 feet above normal and this will
bring tide levels to around 3.2 feet later tonight. May see some
minor coastal flooding tonight along Highway 87 during high tide.

A cold front will move off the coast Friday morning with moderate
N-NE winds developing in the wake of the front. Another SCEC will
likely be needed Fri night into Saturday. High pressure over the
eastern U.S. will maintain a moderate east wind on Sunday. 43

CLIMATE...
Unseasonably warm temperatures across the region may tie or break
record high maximum and/or record high minimum temperatures today
and Thursday, with the most likely locations being Houston Hobby
and Galveston. A listing of records for official climate sites is
provided below.

FOR NOVEMBER 2ND...
LOCATION RECORD HIGH MAX (YEAR) RECORD HIGH MIN (YEAR)
HOUSTON IAH 89 (1978) 71 (1946)
HOUSTON HOU 88 (1950) 72 (2000)
COLLEGE STATION 89 (1955) 72 (1945)
GALVESTON 82 (2000) 76 (1946)

FOR NOVEMBER 3RD...
LOCATION RECORD HIGH MAX (YEAR) RECORD HIGH MIN (YEAR)
HOUSTON IAH 87 (1992) 74 (1994)
HOUSTON HOU 90 (1973) 72 (2000)
COLLEGE STATION 88 (1948) 74 (1994)
GALVESTON 85 (1886) 74 (2000)

Huffman

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 86 70 83 66 80 / 30 20 40 20 20
Houston (IAH) 85 72 84 67 83 / 30 20 30 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 83 76 82 71 80 / 30 30 20 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 1 PM CDT this
afternoon for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to
the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...14
Aviation/Marine...43

[Darvince]

Current SST anomalies do seem to match 1983 pretty closely over the Atlantic and Pacific. The Indian is not a match, but I do not think that matters much. Below are maps comparing current Arctic sea ice to 1983.

1983

2016

That was actually the state of the sea ice during April. The Cryosphere Today maps of sea ice unfortunately went offline in April and haven't been on since. The 1983 map is accurate however.

This is the actual state of the sea ice:

[Tireman4]

Well, I was surprised. Not shocked, but surprised. This was the 9th warmest October at IAH. Felt worse. Onward to a cold November!

By way of comparison, October 2016 was the second warmest in history...at Houston Hobby
Sixth warmest October at College Station
Second warmest October in Galveston

[Ralph's Weather]

1983 EPO was actually more positive through the fall than what we are seeing now, it did not crash until mid December.

[weatherdude1108]

FXUS64 KEWX 022012
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
312 PM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
Isolated showers ongoing mid afternoon and a few thunderstorms
will be possible late this afternoon and evening. Activity should
temporarily diminish late this evening before streamer showers and
patchy drizzle develops early Thursday morning.

The upper level low will remain situated across northern Mexico
and southern AZ through the short-term. At the surface, a cold
front across Northwest Texas will slide south into West and
Central Texas tonight and Thursday. Focus for the more widespread
convection overnight and through the first half of Thursday will
be focused closer to where the moist southeast low and mid level
flow intersects the frontal boundary, just north of the CWA.
Scattered type coverage of showers and thunderstorms are expected
through the first half of Thursday across the EWX CWA.

As the front works into the northern CWA late Thursday afternoon
and eventually to near to I-10/U.S. 90 corridor Thursday evening,
better low level confluence develops through the central and
western CWA to where an increase in coverage of showers and storms
is expected. Given the highly anomalous precipitable water values
some storms could produce locally heavy downpours across this
region late Thursday afternoon and Thursday night, especially
toward to Rio Grande where better upper level forcing is in
concert with low level confluence.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
On Friday, a northwest to southeast oriented pool of higher
moisture will remain situated from the western Hill Country
through the southeast CWA, roughly near and west of I-10. The
better upper level forcing will shift back into far west Texas and
New Mexico as the upper level low moves back north into the desert
southwest. However, a broad zone of weak low level forcing will
continue over the central and western area ahead of a secondary,
backdoor cold front and provide a continued chance for showers and
isolated storms. This front will bring some drier air into the
eastern 2/3rds of the CWA late Friday night into Saturday
according to the GFS and ECMWF.

The moisutre returns back east Sunday as the upper level low
opens and moves through the Southern Plains Sunday into Monday.
This will bring another good chance for showers and thunderstorms
to the region Sunday and Monday. Energy is forecast to dig back to
the southwest in the base of the trough Tuesday into Wednesday,
with another potential low cutting off. There is some
discrepancies to where the low cuts off exactly, but the general
run to run trends between the GFS and ECMWF are west of the
region. This would continue to favor chances for rain into the
middle part of next week.

[Brent]

The cold air on the gfs vanished...

[starsfan65]

The cold air on the gfs vanished...

where did u find that?

[Ralph's Weather]

The cold air on the gfs vanished...

I am sure it will send us on a roller coaster ride of model watching for the next 2-3 weeks as the pattern change unfolds. Until we get a solid -EPO we won't get true cold. Though we should start to see closer to normal temps in the meantime as well as rain chances.

[Yukon Cornelius]

One of our local mets said to not expect a pattern change anytime soon. Hopefully by the end of the month. Kind of disappointing.

[Brent]

^ This is why I'm so skeptical of the winter because we can't even get true fall air lol

[Ntxw]

Meanwhile...what is all this on radar? Must be dreaming...at this hour

[Ralph's Weather]

Meanwhile...what is all this on radar? Must be dreaming...at this hour

Looks great, looks look av wet drive in to work for me.

Next week looks like low 70s and good chances for daily rain. We are in an El Niño like pattern with a raging jet across Canada and sub tropical moisture down here. If our non cold spells can be El Niño like I won't complain.

[weatherdude1108]

This pattern is similar to a couple years ago at this time.

http://texasstormchasers.com/2014/11/03 ... rain-rain/

[srainhoutx]

The Ensembles are in rather good agreement that we may be entering a prolonged wet period as the MJO moves from Phase 7 to 8 near mid month. The sub tropical jet across the Eastern Pacific looks very noisy and expect a continuation of Upper Lows spinning near New Mexico and West Texas offing ample moisture across the Lone Star State.

[Tireman4]

HGX AFD this morning:


000
FXUS64 KHGX 031238
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
738 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016

.UPDATE...
Quick update to add 40 PoPs for extreme northern and northwestern
portions of the forecast area based on latest radar trends. Line
of thunderstorms from earlier this morning continues to weaken,
but new development continues along and ahead of an associated
outflow boundary stretching from near Temple to Tyler. MSAS
analysis shows the cold pool behind this boundary continuing to
modify and confidence is not high in the boundary making it very
far into the forecast area as a result. Also added a mention of
isolated showers to the marine areas. No other changes made to
ongoing forecast, with surface analysis showing the cold frontal
boundary stretching from near the Davis Mountains to North Central
Texas.

Huffman

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016/

AVIATION...
A line of shra/tsra associated with a weak and slow moving cold
front over N TX will weaken as they approach a capped environment
over SE TX. A few streamer showers will approach the coast early
this morning but these should also dissipate as they move inland.
Areas of fog and low ceilings could impact TAF sites early this
morning. A brief period of IFR cigs possible at KIAH, KCXO and
KUTS through 14z with conds improving rapidly thereafter. Short
term guidance keeps most of the shra/tsra west of the TAF sites
today. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Regional radar mosaic shows a line of thunderstorms associated
with a cold front pushing east-southeast across North Central
Texas early this morning. SPC Mesoanalysis this morning shows mid
level flow nearly parallel to the frontal boundary across portions
of North Central Texas this morning, which provides little support for
the front to reach Southeast Texas today. However, the cold pool
associated with the ongoing thunderstorm line will allow both the
thunderstorms to propagate closer towards the region through the
remainder of the morning hours.

Evening soundings from Shreveport and Lake Charles showed a well
defined cap around 750 MB and expect this line to weaken as it
encounters an increasingly stable environment. Have added 20-30
PoPs to the western and northern counties in case any activity is
able to make it into these areas this morning, but concerned that
these thunderstorms will dissipate north of the region and cause
the associated frontal boundary to stall. This would keep most of
the forecast area dry through the morning hours, with the main
sensible weather concern being patchy fog lingering through mid-
morning.

Early morning water vapor imagery shows a cutoff low over Arizona
with broad anticyclonic flow in place across the Gulf of Mexico
associated with an expansive upper ridge. This is resulting in
southwest flow aloft across Texas this morning, which will allow a
mid/upper level disturbance to translate across the state out of
Mexico today. While this disturbance looks to stay too far north
and west of the region to serve as an appreciable trigger for
convection today, its passage should provide enough of a push to
send the stalled frontal boundary into the region later this
afternoon and evening... with isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing generally west of Interstate 45 as a
result. Can`t rule out a few diurnally driven showers farther
east, but anticipate best rain chances to be west of the
Interstate 45 corridor today given the anticipated trajectory of
this shortwave trough. Otherwise, expect partly to mostly cloudy
skies today with unseasonably warm temperatures rising again into
the low to mid 80s this afternoon.

A few showers may linger along the frontal boundary this evening
as it moves towards the coast during the morning hours, but
expect another dry night overnight with lows in the mid 60s to low
70s. An upper trough now located over the Midwest will continue to
slide towards the southeastern U.S. tonight and Friday, allowing a
reinforcing front to backdoor into the region during the afternoon
and evening hours. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
will again be possible along this secondary boundary, but drier
air filtering into the region in the wake of this feature will
result in a dry start to the weekend. Expect highs in the mid 70s
to near 80 with lows in the 50s to low 60s this weekend. Rain
chances will increase for areas west of the Interstate 45
corridor by Sunday as Gulf moisture surges back into the region
and the cutoff low over Arizona shears into an open wave as it
swings towards the Central and Southern Plains.

There is still considerable uncertainty regarding the Monday
through Wednesday portion of the forecast, but the general trend
amongst medium range guidance is to develop a secondary cutoff low
somewhere from the Desert Southwest to West Texas and meander this
feature west of the region. Smaller disturbances rotating around
this feature look to induce a coastal trough along the Texas
coast, but deterministic guidance offers differing solutions on
when this feature may approach Southeast Texas (the European
offers a faster early week solution, while the GFS brings the
trough through later in the week). Regardless, the early to middle
part of next week looks to be defined by periods of showers and
thunderstorms with temperatures near seasonal normals as a result.

Huffman

MARINE...
Elevated seas/swells will gradually dampen as winds as the long
east fetch across the Gulf of Mexico weakens and becomes more NE.
Tide levels remain 1.0 to 1.4 feet above normal and tide levels
peaked near 3.0 feet earlier tonight at high tide. A cold front
will move off the coast Friday but pressure rises behind the front
are not all that impressive as the high shifts more to the east
instead of south. The pressure gradient will tighten a bit over
the weekend as surface low pressure over central plains deepens
and onshore winds will strengthen Saturday night. Elevated tides
near 3.0 feet will again be possible Saturday night. SE winds will
increase Sunday through Tuesday as a coastal trough develops.
Periods of showers and thunderstorms and moderate onshore winds
are expected over the western Gulf early next week as the coastal
trough remains nearly stationary across the Upper Texas Coast. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 84 66 82 60 76 / 30 20 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 85 68 84 61 79 / 20 10 20 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 84 73 81 69 77 / 20 10 10 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 10 AM CDT this morning
for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High
Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...14