WPAC: MEARI - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 26W (TWENTYSIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
932 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATED AS FORMATIVE BANDS DEEPENED
AND WRAPPED INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 021150Z ASCAT
BULLSEYE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE
ASCAT IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA
OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS
SLOWLY TRACKING WESTWARD WITH THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW SOUTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY ON THIS SYSTEM.
B. TD 26W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD AS A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST COMPETES WITH THE STEERING
STR AND RETARDS THE CYCLONES FORWARD MOTION. THE MODERATELY FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL PERSIST AND PROMOTE GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION, REACHING TYPHOON INTENSITY BY TAU 72 AS TD 26W
DRIFTS SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE WARM PHILIPPINE SEA (SSTS 28-30C).
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND BECOME
THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM, SPEEDING UP THE SYSTEMS WESTWARD
PROGRESSION. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST,
BRINGING TD 26W TO 70 KNOTS BY END OF FORECAST. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE IS SPLIT AND WIDELY SPREAD WITH SOME, INCLUDING NAVGEM,
FAVORING A DOMINANT NER STEERING THE SYSTEM MORE NORTHWARD. THE OTHER
CONSENSUS MEMBERS, INCLUDING GFS, FAVOR A DOMINANT STR STEERING THE
SYSTEM WESTWARD. IN VIEW OF THE WIDE DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST
WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE WESTWARD SOLUTION.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

12Z GFS now bottoms this out at 923 mb and a Luzon landfall yet again.

[cycloneye]

JMA upgrades to TS Meari.

TS 1623 (Meari)
Issued at 00:55 UTC, 3 November 2016

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 3 November>
Scale
-
Intensity
-
Center position
N13°10' (13.2°)

E137°10' (137.2°)
Direction and speed of movement
W Slow
Central pressure
996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center
18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed
25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area
ALL 170 km (90 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 4 November>
Intensity
-
Center position of probability circle
N13°35' (13.6°)

E136°05' (136.1°)
Direction and speed of movement
WNW Slow
Central pressure
992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center
20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed
30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle
90 km (50 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 5 November>
Intensity
-
Center position of probability circle
N13°40' (13.7°)

E135°20' (135.3°)
Direction and speed of movement
Almost stationary
Central pressure
985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center
25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed
35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle
180 km (95 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 6 November>
Intensity
-
Center position of probability circle
N13°40' (13.7°)

E134°30' (134.5°)
Direction and speed of movement
Almost stationary
Central pressure
975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center
30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed
45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle
240 km (130 NM)
Storm warning area
ALL 310 km (170 NM)

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HzuKrb1 ... e=youtu.be

WestPacWx Tropical Storm Meari, A possible Typhoon in the Philippines

[1900hurricane]

It's interesting to see both JMA and JTWC going west (albeit very slowly) with their forecast tracks. I'm actually leaning a little more towards the north scenario through the weakness. Ensembles are a little bit convoluted, but the majority (or at least the plurality) appear to be up and out. It's a tricky, low-confidence forecast though. Both scenarios are still very much in play.

[stormstrike]

Wow.. a BIG shift from 00z GFS model output

Looks like this will be a fish. We'll see..

[dexterlabio]

^GFS ensembles have been veering away from the westward track for the past two runs, personally I wasn't surprise to see the 00z operational run showing a recurve. Also noticeable is the HWRF solution picking up on the recurve scenario as well. Best scenario for everyone since the Philippines does not need another cyclone after Haima.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (MEARI)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 26W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 909 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AS FORMATIVE BANDS DEEPENED AND
WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A LOW
REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE ON THE 022154Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF
AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
WESTWARD WITH THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW AND STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 26W IS EXPECTED TO SLOW ITS WESTWARD TRACK AS A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST COMPETES WITH THE STEERING
STR AND RETARDS THE CYCLONES FORWARD MOTION. THE MODERATELY FAVORABLE
UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL PERSIST AND PROMOTE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION,
REACHING TYPHOON INTENSITY BY TAU 72 AS TD 26W DRIFTS SLOWLY OVER THE
WARM PHILIPPINE SEA (SSTS 28-30C).
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND BECOME
THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM, SPEEDING UP THE SYSTEMS WESTWARD
PROGRESSION. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST,
BRINGING TD 26W TO 75 KNOTS BY END OF FORECAST. THERE NOW IS A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT TD 26W WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWARD OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS THE NER BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM
INSTEAD OF THE STR. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS
BIFURCATION IN THE MODEL SOLUTION WITH AN INCREASING NUMBER,
INCLUDING NAVGEM AND EGRR, FAVORING A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK. THE OTHER
CONSENSUS MEMBERS, INCLUDING GFS AND ECMWF, FAVOR A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK. IN VIEW OF THE WIDE DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS, LOW
CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS IN LINE WITH
THE WESTWARD SOLUTION.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

The Phiippines got saved.

WDPN31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 26W (MEARI)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 26W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 244 NM
NORTH OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM. A 030600Z AMSU
89 GHZ IMAGE ALSO REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO
ORGANIZE, AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT BEST TRACK POSITION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS ASSESSED AT 35
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITIES RANGING FROM T2.0-2.5 (30
TO 45 KNOTS), AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TS MEARI IS
TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN A WEAKNESS BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) FEATURES POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK
PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE, AS
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE TOWARD A RECURVATURE
SCENARIO VERSUS A STRAIGHT-RUNNER SCENARIO.
B. TS MEARI IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY ON A MORE NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS THROUGH A WEAKNESS
BETWEEN TWO STR FEATURES. STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IS
ALSO FORECASTED AS OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND VWS REMAINS LOW
NEAR THE STR AXIS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, ONCE PASSED THE STR AXIS, TS 26W WILL BEGIN TO
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND GAIN FORWARD SPEED AS A DEEPENING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS VWS BEGINS TO INCREASE WITHIN THE DEEP
WESTERLIES. TS MEARI IS ALSO FORECAST TO UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION IN THE LATER TAUS AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH AND A TIGHT THICKNESS GRADIENT. GIVEN THE RECENT
CONSOLIDATION OF DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE ON A RECURVATURE SCENARIO,
THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN JTWC TRACK FORECAST AT THIS TIME.//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

I would not be surprised to see Meari intensify more than expected, although I'm not sure I'm willing to outright bullishly predict such a thing as of yet. As long as Meari remains south of 20*N or so, conditions will be nearly ideal. Water temps are warm and heat laden, shear and dry air are a non-issue, and an anticyclone aloft appears to already be establishing itself. Core development appears to be the limiting factor in the short term, and considering the sloppy origins of the system, it is possible that it could take some time, although such things are notoriously hard to predict with much skill.

Once north of 20*N, conditions flip extremely quickly. This is very different from a Chaba/Songda type scenario. The jet streams have become much more active and have dropped south. With troughing centered over Japan, upper level westerly jet flow could quickly decimate Meari, no matter how strong it has become.

[1900hurricane]

It's also worth noting just how cold and high the tropopause is.12Z soundings out of Guam, Yap, and Palau all have the tropopause above 100 mb with temperatures of -90*C or colder. Unsurprisingly, sub -90*C convective tops have been a regular feature for Meari throughout development.

[1900hurricane]

Impressive convective blowup not far from the earlier ASCAT analyzed center.

[1900hurricane]

AMSR2 shows rapidly improving structure.

[euro6208]

45 knots.

WDPN31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 26W (MEARI)
WARNING NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 26W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 641 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING CYCLONE WITH EXPANDING FEEDER BANDS WRAPPING
INTO A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED AMIDST A CLUSTER OF AGENCY FIXES WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON OBJECTIVE AND AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.3 AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (5-10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TS MEARI IS TRACKING TOWARD A WEAKNESS
BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL HIGHS (STH) - ONE TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE
OTHER TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS MEARI IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY ON A MORE NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY TOWARD A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE TWO STH
FEATURES. STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IS ALSO FORECAST AS
OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND VWS REMAINS FAVORABLE NEAR THE STR
AXIS, PEAKING AT 75 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, ONCE PASSED THE STR AXIS, TS MEARI WILL BEGIN TO
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS A DEEPENING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BEGIN TO WEAKEN
AS VWS INCREASES WITHIN THE DEEP, PREVAILING WESTERLIES. TS 26W IS
FORECAST TO UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION IN THE LATER TAUS, AS
IT INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND A TIGHT THICKNESS
GRADIENT, BECOMING A COLD-CORE LOW BY END OF FORECAST. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE WITH GFDN AS THE SOLE WESTERN
OUTLIER, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Such strong convection. It's the great red spot similar to Jupiter if there was one.

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 NOV 2016 Time : 204000 UTC
Lat : 14:58:43 N Lon : 137:23:26 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 988.5mb/ 57.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.6 3.6 3.6

Center Temp : -70.4C Cloud Region Temp : -73.4C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 93km
- Environmental MSLP : 1006mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 18.0 degrees

****************************************************

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 26W (MEARI)
WARNING NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 26W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 361 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
WELL ORGANIZED, COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FEEDER BANDS COVERING A VERY BROAD AREA AROUND THE LLCC. A SERIES OF
MICROWAVE PASSES BETWEEN 2116Z AND 2140Z FROM THE CORIOLIS, GPM AND
SSMIS SENSOR 37 GHZ CHANNEL SHOWED A DISTINCT MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
AND EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, A 0002Z ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED A
CLEAR LLCC WITH 25-30 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM AND
A BROAD SWATH OF 40+ KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST. AN ELONGATED
TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS INVEST 99W. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE USING THE AFOREMENTIONED
MICROWAVE AND SCATTEROMETER PASSES, AND HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON
OBJECTIVE AND AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 TO T3.1 AND REFLECTS
THE OVERALL WEAK SIGNATURE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW BEING SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE OVER OR VERY NEAR THE LLCC. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) IS LOW (5-10 KNOT) AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS)
ARE HIGH, ABOVE 30 DEG CELSIUS. THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TRACKING MORE
NORTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH, AND DUE TO FUJIWARA INTERACTION WITH
INVEST 99W TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS MEARI IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT TRANSITS A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN
LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGES TO THE NORTHEAST AND WEST. BY TAU 36, AN
EXTENSION OF THE STR TO WILL DEVELOP JUST EAST OF TS MEARI, AFTER
WHICH TS MEARI WILL INCREASE ITS SPEED OF ADVANCE TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST. SIMULTANEOUSLY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL
DEEPEN, WHILE PUSHING SOUTHWARD AND BEGIN INTERACTING WITH TS MEARI
BY TAU 48, INCREASING ITS SPEED FURTHER. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS,
SUPPORTING STEADY INTENSIFICATION. THROUGH TAU 48, INTERACTION WITH
THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL ADD STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO THE
EQUATION AND ALLOW FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 75 KNOTS
AT TAU 48. TS MEARI IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
AROUND TAU 72, AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLY FLOW.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS MEARI WILL BE NORTH OF THE STR AXIS, AND WILL
BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT UNDERGOES EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BEGIN A RAPID WEAKENING TREND AS
VWS INCREASES WITHIN THE DEEP, PREVAILING WESTERLIES. TS 26W IS
FORECAST TO COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 120 AS IT
BECOMES FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BECOMES A COLD-
CORE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD AND THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Now a typhoon and peak is up to 105 knots Cat 3.

WDPN31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (MEARI)
WARNING NR 09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 26W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 493 NM SOUTH OF
IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 041911Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS TIGHTLY-
CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH A DEFINED CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TY 26W
IS TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY MEARI IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. TY 26W IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY STEADILY THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS BUT
SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER TAU 36 DUE TO INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. NEAR TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE STRONG BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY MEARI WILL BEGIN ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD
IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH. VWS WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW. RAPID WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM WILL
COMMENCE BETWEEN TAU 72 AND 96. TY MEARI WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96
AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPPN11 PGTW 042127

A. TYPHOON 26W (MEARI)

B. 04/2100Z

C. 17.20N

D. 139.98E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. 1.10 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 4.0. PT
AND MET AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
04/1911Z 16.87N 139.98E SSMS
04/2031Z 17.05N 139.90E GPMI


MARTINEZ

20161104 2030 17.0 -140.0 T4.0/4.0 26W MEARI