WPAC: MEARI - Post-Tropical

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WDPN31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (MEARI)
WARNING NR 10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 26W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM SOUTH OF
IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY-
CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER. A 042126Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE SHOWS A DEVELOPING, COMPACT EYEWALL SURROUNDING A MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE, AND EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS BASED ON AN
AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 77 KNOTS.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TY 26W
IS TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY MEARI IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A POLEWARD-
ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. TY 26W IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY STEADILY THROUGH TAU 24 UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS BUT
SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER TAU 36 DUE TO INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. NEAR TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE STRONG BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. AFTER TAU 48, TY MEARI WILL BEGIN
ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE NORTH. VWS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE AS THE
SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW. RAPID
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM WILL COMMENCE BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72. TY
MEARI WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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Up to 80 knots and new peak is 125 knots Cat 4.

WDPN31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (MEARI) WARNING NR 11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 26W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 441 NM SOUTH OF
IWO TO, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
NOTABLE DEEPENING IN THE CENTRAL CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. IN RESPONSE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 80 KNOTS WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.5-T5.0 (77-90 KNOTS). THE CURRENT POSITION
IS BASED ON A SMALL LOW LEVEL MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 050520Z SSMI
37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE 85GHZ IMAGE FROM THE SAME PASS REVEALS
THAT THE BULK OF DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN QUADRANTS. TY MEARI IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH A POINT SOURCE ANTI-CYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM PRODUCING RADIAL
OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TY 26W IS TRACKING NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY MEARI IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STEERING STR. TY 26W IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY UNDER THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 24 BUT SHOULD WEAKEN
AFTER TAU 36 DUE TO INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. NEAR TAU 36, TY MEARI WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND EMBEDS
WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
WESTERLIES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
POLEWARD. RAPID WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AFTER
TAU 48. THE TYPHOON WILL GAIN FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND COMPLETE
ETT AS A STRONG COLD-CORE LOW BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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I don't understand how that system northeast of Meari isn't a tropical cyclone. It's the remnants of invest 99W. Similar to those east coast systems in the Atlantic.

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WDPN31 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (MEARI) WARNING NR 13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 26W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 361 NM SOUTH OF
IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
ASYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 051857Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A SMALL MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE, HOWEVER, DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT
HAS ERODED WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 85 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM T4.5 TO T5.0 (77 TO 90 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE ANTICYCLONE PRVIOUSLY POSITIONED OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER HAS
SHIFTED JUST EAST OF THE CENTER, AND IS NOW HINDERING DEVELOPMENT
DESPITE CONTINUED VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TY 26W IS TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY MEARI IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR. TY 26W WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY DUE TO
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW THROUGH TAU 24, BUT SHOULD WEAKEN
AFTERWARDS DUE TO INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. NEAR TAU 24, TY MEARI WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND EMBEDS
UNDER THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
WESTERLIES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE AS THE SYSTEM GAINS
LATITUDE. RAPID WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AFTER
TAU 36. THE TYPHOON WILL GAIN FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND COMPLETE
ETT AS A STRONG COLD-CORE LOW BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

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WDPN31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (MEARI) WARNING NR 15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 26W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 274 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEVELOPING EYE
FEATURE. THIS FEATURE LINES UP WELL WITH A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE IN
THE 060612Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT
POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THAT
THE BULK OF DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM WITH DRY AIR IMPINGING ON THE NORTHERN SIDE.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS STRONG POLEWARD DIVERGENCE DUE TO AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE WEST. CONCURRENTLY,
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS INCREASED TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS)
LEVELS BUT HAS YET TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM DUE TO ITS MOTION BEING IN-
PHASE WITH THE VWS VECTOR. TY 26W IS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY MEARI IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR. TY 26W WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY DUE TO
THE ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW THROUGH TAU 12, BUT SHOULD WEAKEN
AFTERWARDS DUE TO INCREASING VWS (25+ KNOTS) ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. NEAR TAU 24, TY MEARI WILL BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND EMBEDS UNDER THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. VWS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STRONG WESTERLIES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE AS
THE SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE. RAPID WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR AFTER TAU 36. THE TYPHOON WILL GAIN FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS AND COMPLETE ETT AS A STRONG COLD-CORE LOW BY TAU
48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

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WDPN31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (MEARI) WARNING NR 17//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 26W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 243 NM EAST OF
IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
ASYMMETRIC AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION SHEARING NORTHWARD DUE TO STRONG
(40-60 KNOTS) SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A
061734Z SSMI 37GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE SHOWS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED,
BROADENING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 90 KNOTS. VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CONTINUES TO SUSTAIN THE CURRENT CONVECTION. TY 26W IS TRACKING
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY MEARI IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR.
TY 26W IS UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND BAROCLINIC ZONE AND IS
FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES. THE TYPHOON WILL GAIN
FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 18 AS A STRONG COLD-
CORE LOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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WTPN31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 26W (MEARI) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 29.2N 148.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.2N 148.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 31.9N 150.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 370 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
235 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 34.4N 153.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 370 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 29.9N 148.6E.
TYPHOON (TY) 26W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 561 NM SOUTHEAST OF
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 25 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS FULLY ENGULFED TY MEARI. A
070600Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS DRY AIR ENTRAINING THE
CYCLONE FROM THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WITH ALL REMAINING CONVECTION
SHEARED TO THE NORTH. THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IS ELONGATED TO THE
NORTHEAST AND HAS BECOME FRONTAL, INDICATING EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). TY 26W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT ACCELERATES
NORTHEASTWARD, EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE
WIND FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO BROADEN AS IT COMPLETES ETT AS A STRONG
COLD-CORE LOW. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
070600Z IS 25 FEET.
//
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