Texas Fall-2016

[Brent]

For at least the 3rd run in a row the euro has heavy rain next week while the gfs more resembles Seattle. Either way... the record heat is history.

[horselattitudesfarm]

What I don't understand about the El Nino like pattern is why the southeast has been so hot and dry with persistent ridging. Usually, with El Ninos the southeast stays wetter.

[Ntxw]

What I don't understand about the El Nino like pattern is why the southeast has been so hot and dry with persistent ridging. Usually, with El Ninos the southeast stays wetter.

The El Nino-like pattern is only temporary but the southeast is experiencing feedback from the drought. Surface ridge and higher heights still dominate there. Perhaps in a week the southwest lows might be able to kick out? I know the drought is getting pretty bad over there

[Brent]

It was up there with hottest summers on record in AL/GA too where I used to live(I know Atlanta/Birmingham got close or over most 90s in a year)... and then you throw in the fact October is the driest month historically there... and it's a recipe for hot and dry to continue... but yeah... this is some of the worst conditions I've ever seen over there with the fires. This time of year is notorious there for dry winds, it's just usually it's bringing in fall, not so dry it's sparking fires.

In local weather... increasingly looks like more normal temps will be around. Warmest on the entire 12z GFS is 73, and some mid 40s appear next weekend.

[Ntxw]

It was up there with hottest summers on record in AL/GA too where I used to live(I know Atlanta/Birmingham got close or over most 90s in a year)... and then you throw in the fact October is the driest month historically there... and it's a recipe for hot and dry to continue... but yeah... this is some of the worst conditions I've ever seen over there with the fires. This time of year is notorious there for dry winds, it's just usually it's bringing in fall, not so dry it's sparking fires.

In local weather... increasingly looks like more normal temps will be around. Warmest on the entire 12z GFS is 73, and some mid 40s appear next weekend.

They are experiencing the equivalency of 2007. Exceptional drought is creeping into Northern Georgia and Alabama. I hope we get a weak El Nino next year.

As for Texas, fall is here finally. The actual anomalies may still reflect above normal but in the sense of feel outside it will reflect better. If you have clouds it's always a different sense than with sun anyhow. I'm still fairly confident that Thanksgiving through Christmas (particularly December) will be the highlight of this winter. The Aleutian ridge is lurking, Meari is a big typhoon I would definitely keep an eye on that will inject into the Pacific jet retracting it and amplifying the pattern.

[Brent]

The GFS has some 30s north of the metro next Sunday morning, ironically this is when the GFS originally had 30s out in the LR at DFW, and then they vanished:

[Ralph's Weather]

According to AccuWeather 73 will be the highest we get through early February, it also has 9 days in January with mixed precip. Take that with a grain of salt considering the source, but still nice to see.

[horselattitudesfarm]

I'm reading an interesting article titled: "Persistent shift of the Arctic polar vortex towards the Eurasian continent in recent decades by Jiankai Zhang, Wenshou Tian, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Fei Xie & Jinlong Huang and found here:

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate3136.html

As noted in dicsussions on this board, the authors note increasing snowpack in Eurasia and how it affects the polar vortex. The summary is:

"The wintertime Arctic stratospheric polar vortex has weakened over the past three decades, and consequently cold surface air from high latitudes is now more likely to move into the middle latitudes1, 2, 3, 4, 5. However, it is not known if the location of the polar vortex has also experienced a persistent change in response to Arctic climate change and whether any changes in the vortex position have implications for the climate system. Here, through the analysis of various data sets and model simulations, we show that the Arctic polar vortex shifted persistently towards the Eurasian continent and away from North America in February over the past three decades. This shift is found to be closely related to the enhanced zonal wavenumber-1 waves in response to Arctic sea-ice loss, particularly over the Barents–Kara seas (BKS). Increased snow cover over the Eurasian continent may also have contributed to the shift. Our analysis reveals that the vortex shift induces cooling over some parts of the Eurasian continent and North America which partly offsets the tropospheric climate warming there in the past three decades. The potential vortex shift in response to persistent sea-ice loss in the future6, 7, and its associated climatic impact, deserve attention to better constrain future climate changes."

Interesting stuff and its cool to see how discussions on this board relate to this research

[Ntxw]

The AO in October for the month came in at -1.917. That makes it the lowest October AO since 1950, topping the previous record holder in 2009.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table



With that kind of blocking in place, beware of big cut off lows this winter getting clogged in the pattern.

[weatherdude1108]

This is El Ninoesque.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
612 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2016

.AVIATION...
Aviation forecast remains quite tricky. CIGs have been bouncing
around and are currently MVFR in Austin and San Antonio and IFR at
DRT. Will see low CIGs through the morning. Showers will develop
this morning and continue through the day. CIGs will become VFR
this afternoon and drop again overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...
An upper level trough over the southern/central Rockies will drift
into the High Plains by this evening and across the Plains tonight
and Monday. A series of mid level impulses rotate through this
trough to provide upward forcing while the left exit region of the
upper level jet provides diffluent flow aloft. Bands/periods of
showers and thunderstorms are expected. A moist airmass with above
normal early November PWs of 1.3 to 1.6 inches over South Central
Texas is expected to linger with a fetch extending back to south
of Hawaii. This unseasonably moist airmass and some training of
rain cells makes locally heavy rains possible and WPC has eastern
parts of the Hill Country and South Central Texas in a marginal
risk for excessive rainfall today and Monday. The highest POPs are
across the eastern areas of South Central Texas where the deepest
moisture and strongest upward forcing are expected.

LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
A piece of energy dropping down the back side of the trough will
carve out another upper level low/trough from southern Plains
into Northwestern Mexico mid to late week. The models/ensembles
continue to have consistency and consensus issues regarding the
pattern evolution aloft. Rain chances continue mid to late week,
however, they are currently expected to slowly decrease due to a
surface ridge building into South Central Texas bringing drier
lower level air into our area. Although, the most recent runs of
the models have increased mid level moisture and rain chances for
late week into next weekend, will hold off on this trend to await
consistency in the models.

[Portastorm]

Why Hello Dallas!

[aggiecutter]

Snow in Texarkana on my birthday. It happens every year.

[TheProfessor]

I fly back home to Texas on Sunday the 20th and if the end of the 6z GFS happened (it is still 384 hours lol) I would have a very tight window to fly out. Any delay in my flight due to bad weather in Texas would cause further delay when heavy snow would move through in Columbus in the event of 6z. 12z probably won't even have a storm though

[Brent]

Why Hello Dallas!

http://i65.tinypic.com/2daywdy.jpg

[Portastorm]

I figured we all needed a good laugh with all of the stressful news out there.

GFS says CAT 5 IN THE GULF!!!

[Ntxw]

Seems comical, but dont look at the 12z euro. Wild. I think we are quietly seeing hints of a major storm leading up to thanksgiving

[Tireman4]

:uarrow:

I figured we all needed a good laugh with all of the stressful news out there.

GFS says CAT 5 IN THE GULF!!!

Super CAT 5 in the Gulf...run for your lives...

[Tireman4]

HGX AFD:


000
FXUS64 KHGX 061845
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1245 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2016

.AVIATION...
Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop along the
coast/south of the I-10 corridor. This will bring VCTS/VCSH into
play for HOU/SGR/LBX/GLS terminals from the git-go with more
development expected in the SW areas/Gulf waters that will track
towards these same sites. Further west an organized line of storms
moving through the FTW/ACT/AUS area looks to be associated with
LFQ of the upper jet. This LFQ should traverse the region this
afternoon and evening bringing a good chance of SHRA/TSRA to all
the TAF sites. S/W trough axis still favorable for more storms
over night though instability may be much less. Possible that we
will see a break Monday morning and then it will depend on how
much moisture remains as to whether Monday afternoon more storms
will develop. Confidence beyond 03z is low.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 911 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2016/

UPDATE...
Shaved down precip chances a bit for today for the northeastern
half of the area as the first wave of rain appears to have
succumbed to lingering dry air as it moved northeast of the
Matagorda Bay area. However, this should only necessitate a small
reduction in PoPs, as the environment still does not look to be
best over SE Texas until much later today. The HRRR and RAP are
somewhat worrying, as it hits the area with a batch of rain not
present at the current forecast hour and then goes relatively dry
afterwards. However, the 12Z NAM still provides rain, as does the
06Z TTU WRF, and even the previously dry NCAR WRF ensemble bring
in a shield of rain late this afternoon into tonight. So now we
wait for rain and what dry air is left to do battle again...

Luchs

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected for most of today and this evening.
Confidence regarding the timing and location of showers and
thunderstorms is moderate at best. There was an area of showers
with embedded thunderstorms moving up the coast from Matagorda
Bay. The models differed on the timing and location to where these
storms will end up later today. A consensus of the shorter range
high resolution models means better chances for this morning and
afternoon. The global models were showing better chances tonight
and Monday. Given the dynamics of the upper level system
approaching the state from the west, but taking in mind the short
range models, introduced chances for showers this morning and kept
best chances tonight.

Confidence for the onset of MVFR or lower conditions tonight is
low to moderate. There was a difference between models with the
NAM the more aggressive and the GFS keeping mainly VFR conditions
in place through the night. Went with a blend of the models and
guidance.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
At 1 AM, surface high pressure over the Ohio Valley was ridging
into SE TX. A deep upper level low was located over the Four
Corners region and the flow aloft over Texas was becoming
increasingly divergent. At 850 mb, a strong high pressure system
was located over Missouri. A strong surge of moisture was oriented
NW to SE across the state from about Amarillo to Corpus Christi. A
narrow ribbon of 12-14 C dew pts extended from CRP to BRO and out
over the Gulf. The upper low will gradually move east today and
tonight and showers and thunderstorms are expected to become more
numerous today as the flow aloft becomes more diffluent and
moisture levels continue to climb. Radar is showing an expanding
area of shra/tsra over the Middle Texas Coast and this area of
precip will be working it`s way north this morning. Tapered PoPs
with the higher values to the SW and lower to NE today as the
upper low edges eastward.

The upper low gets closer tonight and jet dynamics begin to kick
in with a nice split in the 300 mb winds and the approach of an 80
kt speed max. SE TX will lie a LFQ tonight through Monday so would
expect a continuation of showers and thunderstorms. Some of the
rainfall totals between today and Monday evening could be locally
heavy. That said, the GFS fcst soundings show a bit more dry air
in the soundings and PW values are now progged to remain about
1.60 inches instead of the 1.90 inches progged yesterday. Will
maintain the likely PoPs for tonight and Monday and have leaned
toward the wetter ECMWF/GEM.

The GFS and ECMWF differ rather significantly Tuesday and beyond
as the GFS shears the upper low out leaving a weak and poorly
defined weakness over W TX. The ECMWF also leaves some energy to
the southwest but it is stronger with the feature. The ECMWF would
suggest a continuation of the precip as isentropic upglide
begins. The GFS flow aloft is more zonal and isentropic upglide
would be minimal. FWIW, the GEM favors the ECMWF upper pattern and
the GFS precip pattern. Not much confidence going forward but feel
that with a weakness to our west and NE sfc winds, there should be
some isentropic upglide component and will lean toward the wetter
ECMWF. Temps will trend cooler during the second half of the week
due to NE sfc winds and the added cloud cover. Another strong
disturbance will approach the area late Fri or Sat and bring SE TX
another chance of precip with temps trending much cooler for next
Sunday in the wake of this feature. 43

MARINE...
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will become likely later today
and tonight which will then persist through Monday. Main impacts
will be gusty winds in and near any storms that develop.

Easterly are expected on Monday with northeasterly developing for
Tuesday. For tonight/early Monday morning and again Monday
night/early Tuesday morning the winds will help tide levels to reach
to about 1 foot above normal. This will mean that the higher than
normal tides may affect portions of the Bolivar Peninsula during the
times of high tides.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 76 64 74 60 73 / 50 70 60 40 30
Houston (IAH) 79 66 75 62 76 / 60 70 60 40 40
Galveston (GLS) 78 71 76 68 75 / 60 70 60 50 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...25
Aviation/Marine...45

[weatherdude1108]

2.5 inches of rain since Thursday. Went from dry to soaked, overnight!

[weatherdude1108]

000
FXUS64 KEWX 062152
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
352 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...
Over the course of the day, a line of showers and storms had moved
through much of the northern third of the CWA bringing between 1-2
inches of rain to those locations with some spotty locations a
little higher. Also, isolated activity, more isolated and driven
by convective processes, was beginning across the Coastal Plains
area.

For the next 6 hours...the convective complex should continue to
progress eastward and out of the CWA but generating outflow which
we are already noting this afternoon on radar. This outflow will
serve as the main lifting mechanism, aided by a more favorable
convective environment and meager but appreciable effective bulk
shear of 25-30 kts. The concern is if this outflow boundary stalls
roughly along or just north of the I-10 corridor east of San
Antonio as it would likely set up a prolonged heavy rainfall
threat to that area eastward. As a result, the WPC has included
this region into a slight risk for flash flooding which agrees
well with our previous flash flood risk area being mainly along
and east of the escarpment/I-35.

There...should...be a significant downturn in coverage and
intensity after 06Z as convective potential wanes and outflows
wash out the environment. Unfortunately that complicates the
forecast details for tomorrow as the outcome of today and
tonight`s episode will highly effect the environment tomorrow.
That being said...the main upper level shortwave will still be
progressing eastward keeping the eastern CWA under broad lifting.
Believe the presence of remnant outflows would only serve to
enhance QPF values vs deter them in the afternoon, thus kept PoP
chances relatively unchanged for this package with likely PoPs in
the northeastern quarter of the CWA and gradually decreasing
towards the Rio Grande Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
The once negatively tilted upper low will shift its axis to become
positively tilted late Monday and begin elongating in a northeast
to southwest orientation. This should keep the extended period
with at least slight chance PoPs as the upper pattern undergoes
this metamorphosis. The question mark will be available moisture
as continued model trends have indicated the center of the
eventual closed low that develops to be located well into Mexico.
Just about all of the long range models put the low center in this
region which may serve to limit moisture availability to Texas
late in the week.