2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[Blown Away]

surprised nobody is mentioning the fact that all models are showing development in the Caribbean early next week

GFS has a Hurricane in 384 Hours Moving NNE... Gobble Gobble...

[AxaltaRacing24]

surprised nobody is mentioning the fact that all models are showing development in the Caribbean early next week

It isn't mid September so everybody's guard is off.

[HURRICANELONNY]

It's not off guard. It's the GFS @ 384. Happy Thanksgiving!. See you all June 2017.

[blp]

surprised nobody is mentioning the fact that all models are showing development in the Caribbean early next week

I was watching it but waiting for the Euro to jump on board. I see that the Euro now has this for three runs so it looks more real now.

[cycloneye]

More and more it looks probable a development in SW Caribbean.GFS and ECMWF are in consensus.

GFS



ECMWF

[Alyono]

Models are showing a possible hurricane into Haiti

[abajan]

Models are showing a possible hurricane into Haiti

Hopefully, that doesn't pan out because Matthew has left Haiti in a serious predicament.

[wxman57]

Major hurricane west of Jamaica on Thanksgiving - at 384hrs of the 12Z GFS run... Looking more like a "modelcane" every day. Euro backing off on it, too, developing a weaker low later next week than previous runs.

[TheStormExpert]

Joe B. calling the SW Caribbean tropical cyclone forecasted now only by the Euro his "End-Game Storm". I think it will be very tough to get something going down there about a week before Thanksgiving due to screaming wind shear across the entire Atlantic basin now.

 https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/796435171482345472

[floridasun78]

look at spin could be this move to west next week models picking up by leeward islands http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-vis.html

[chaser1]

look at spin could be this move to west next week models picking up by leeward islands http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-vis.html

I see no indication of future development near the E. Caribbean but the EURO is insisting that a T.S. is likely to form in the SW Caribbean in about 144 hours. There is some support from lessor Global models. Although the GFS has not come on board yet, I am seeing that the GFS appears to be coming around a little bit with regards to an 850mb circulation down there, and more favorable upper level conditions as well.

Here's the 144 hr. EURO from last night (0Z): http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... s=0&ypos=0

Now, here's the 216 hr. EURO forecast showing a 999mb storm over Jamaica: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... s=0&ypos=0

Note here, the 132 hr. GFS 200mb-850mb wind shear map from 12Z today. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... ypos=254.4

[wxman57]

12Z EC now develops a weaker low a little later (next Thursday) and keeps the weak low SW of Jamaica through 10 days. I still think it's most likely a "modelcane", though a weak low could well form.

[gatorcane]

00Z ECMWF has it again:

[chaser1]

I'm noticing that there is increasingly more model support for this low to form, plus the time frame is moving closer thus increasingly likely that something will form. In the "for what its worth" column though, the EURO looks to move this system near or over Jamaica and then Cuba, but not posing any threat to Florida, however here becomes a topic of motion and timing. Not that I typically look at the GEM with regards to accuracy of model genesis, but the GEM and the NavyGEM are both slower in the eastward shift of a major league short wave (that'll eventually bring very cold weather to the E. Conus). Furthermore, not only does the GFS also seem to be slower in this trough's eastward progression but is starting to come on board with a SW Caribbean development.

A Caribbean tropical storm developing somewhere in the 144 - 168 hr time frame is appearing like an increasingly viable outcome and as a sidenote to the relevance of timing, the less accurate GEM actually hooks this storm towards S. Florida after crossing Cuba as a 997mb storm over W. Freeport in 180 hours (before being pulled poleward ahead of the approaching short wave). At this point no one need give the GEM all that much concern, but more importantly should serve as a reminder that the season is not over and it remains to be seen how the GFS will continue to come more in line. Of greater interest to me will be watching EURO model updates for consistency, trend toward weaker or stronger development, and most especially the timing element of the late cycle strong cold front moving across the country.

[chaser1]

Major hurricane west of Jamaica on Thanksgiving - at 384hrs of the 12Z GFS run... Looking more like a "modelcane" every day. Euro backing off on it, too, developing a weaker low later next week than previous runs.

Interestingly, the above was posted this past Tuesday. This mornings 12Z GFS run is not only becoming consistent but strengthening this storm down to 974mb while deepening and drifting slowly Westward for the same forecast time period (Thanksgiving morning) now 320 hours from now... "Belize it or not"! Will this end up like a poor man's Hurricane Mitch or potentially be tugged further north and more in line with the EURO?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... ypos=654.4

[chaser1]

Well, the 12Z EURO is starting to come on in (at 48 hr. right now), but after taking a bit more time to look at the longer range 500mb flow, it really does appear to be a difference of whether a newly forming storm will be picked up as a sheared T.S. by the first of two strong short waves sweeping the country (as depicted right now by the EURO and similarly by the GEM), or whether a stronger and farther south forming T.S. as depicted by the GFS will miss the tug of this first short wave, and then ahead of the 2nd short wave around Thanksgiving... be so far south that it'll simply be forced westward by a mid level anticyclone over the far E. Pacific and Mexico. In either case though, i'm not seeing any reasonable solution to suggest that anything could really threaten Florida at this time especially given the apparent long wave pattern and with the progressive westerlies continuing to bring sharp troughing over the E. CONUS. Really hope the GFS solution does not play out with a strong hurricane threatening Central America though.

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF at 168 hours:

[gatorcane]

192 hours moving NW, beyond here is fantasy land:

[chaser1]

EURO 216 hour ( http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=240 )
has this storm about 150 miles north of the GFS position and beginning to drift more N.E. or East, thus feeling a bit more tug from the sharp trough off the U.S. east coast. Aside from an approx. displacement of 150-200 miles, the GFS and EURO are seemingly becoming more in-line with each other. The final solution would seem to have more to do with how far south or north consolidation of this system occurs and whether a first approaching trough picks this storm up or not.

Footnote: the 240 hour EURO does neither lol; but kicks this storm ESE and well south of Jamaica
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=240

[MGC]

The NHC upped the odds of a TC to form to 50% in the five day outlook. Another Ida on our hands?.......MGC