WPAC: Remnant Low Ma-on

[1900hurricane]

JMA is expecting to name soon.

TD
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 10 November 2016

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 10 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N16°55' (16.9°)
E157°00' (157.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 10 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N18°20' (18.3°)
E154°10' (154.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 11 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°35' (19.6°)
E151°10' (151.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

[euro6208]

JMA upgrades to Ma-on.

WDPN31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (MA-ON)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 27W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 668
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION
ALONG THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE EXPOSED NATURE OF THE LLCC PROVIDES
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE MSI LOOP AND A 100751Z
GPM 89GHZ IMAGE CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ORGANIZED LLCC WITH WELL-DEFINED
CLOUD LINES EVIDENT EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE
GPM IMAGE ALSO SHOWS DEEP CURVED CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM ALL
AGENCIES AND REFLECTS THE LIMITED CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE SINCE THE
LAST WARNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE WITH
A POINT SOURCE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC PRODUCING WEAK
DIVERGENT OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) OVER THE CENTER. TD 27W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TD MA-ON WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE
DOMINANT STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. AFTERWARDS, VWS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE STRONG ZONAL MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO THE SYSTEMS
DISSIPATION BY TAU 72 OR POSSIBLY SOONER. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, LENDING TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TXPQ22 KNES 100918
TCSWNP

A. 27W (MA-ON)

B. 10/0830Z

C. 17.5N

D. 155.6E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY SHEAR WITH CIRCULAR DEFINED
CLOUD LINES AND A CENTER LOCATED UNDER A COLD OVERCAST MEASURING OVER
1.5DEG. MET=3.0 WHILE PT=2.5 AND DT=2.0. FT IS BASED ON PT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER


TPPN10 PGTW 100931

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (MA-ON)

B. 10/0900Z

C. 17.55N

D. 154.95E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 71A/PBO XTRP/ANMTN. POSITION BASED OFF
EXTRAPOLATION FROM RECENT GPMI IMAGERY. CNVCTN BROADLY
WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL, YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET AND PT
AGREE WITH DT. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
10/0701Z 17.53N 155.12E GPMI


CHAPPOTIN

[euro6208]

Very impressive.

This is one name that i was dreading this year...Not on how powerful it might become but just saying the name alone is kinda silly. I'm glad it was used for something weak before this season dies down.

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 NOV 2016 Time : 100000 UTC
Lat : 17:47:08 N Lon : 155:00:01 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 /1003.2mb/ 41.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.8 2.4 2.4

Center Temp : -57.6C Cloud Region Temp : -44.0C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 26.3 degrees

****************************************************

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (MA-ON)
WARNING NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 27W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 353
NM SOUTH OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER AN ASYMMETRIC
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 1752Z SSMIS 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS THAT MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS REMAINED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC, WITH NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE SYSTEM. THE LLCC REMAINS WEAK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT WITH 25-30 KNOT WINDS LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
THE MICROWAVE DATA AND ANALYSIS OF THE AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY SUPPORTS
THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A WEAK POINT SOURCE
HAS DEVELOPED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, AND IS PROVIDING
GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH GOOD OUTFLOW AND
LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TD 27W IS TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TD MA-ON WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE
DOMINANT STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TAU 36. BY TAU 48,
A TD 27W WILL ENTER A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS A WEAKNESS
DEVELOPS IN THE STR, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD AND SLOW FORWARD SPEED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING
FOR A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
UNFAVORABLE AFTER TAU 48, TD 27W WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE UNDER IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING VWS, AND WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE LOWER
LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW, RESULTING IN A TURN TOWARDS THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST BY TAU 60. THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO THE
SYSTEMS DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, LENDING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Upgraded to TS from JTWC.

27W MA-ON 161111 0000 18.8N 151.6E WPAC 35 1000

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (MA-ON)
WARNING NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 333 NM
EAST OF PAGAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING MORE SYMMETRIC WITH DEEP CONVECTION
EXPANDING AND BECOMING MORE SYMMETRICAL IN NATURE. HOWEVER, A 102006Z
SSMIS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMS THAT THE LLCC IS STILL SOMEWHAT
REMOVED TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH HAS REMAINED
CONSTRICTED TO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE MICROWAVE DATA AND
ANALYSIS OF THE AVAILABLE VISIBLE IMAGERY SUPPORTS THE CURRENT
POSITION AND INTENSITY WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES REMAIN AT T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY THE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND A 110010Z
PARTIAL ASCAT-B PASS INDICATING 30-35 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE POINT
SOURCE THAT DEVELOPED NEAR THE SYSTEM EARLIER TODAY HAS REMAINED IN
PLACE JUST TO THE SOUTH AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOR A FAVORABLE
OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
TS 27W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP
LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TS MA-ON WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. AROUND TAU 36, A WEAKNESS
DEVELOPS IN THE STEERING RIDGE AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHWARD. TS MA-ON WILL SLOW ITS FORWARD SPEED IN RESPONSE TO THE
INDUCED WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BEFORE TURNING TO A MORE WESTERLY
TRACK AS AN EXTENSION OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA BECOMES THE DOMINATE STEERING FEATURE, AFTER TAU 48. THE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 48, ALLOWING
FOR A PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION, WITH THE SYSTEM REACHING PEAK
INTENSITY BETWEEN TAU'S 36 AND 48 AS IT TAPS INTO THE DEEP
WESTERLIES ALOFT, INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AFTER THIS PEAK
HOWEVER, VWS WILL INCREASE LEADING TO A RAPID WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM. THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO THE SYSTEMS
DISSIPATION BY TAU 96, WITH REMNANTS TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER DISSIPATION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK LIES CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 24, BUT DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY THEREAFTER, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 21.7N 144.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 144.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 22.1N 142.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 21.8N 144.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 27W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 264 NM
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED AND
WEAK AS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS SHEARED EASTWARD. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM REPORTING
AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED
INTO A HIGH (30 KNOTS PLUS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AREA. ALONG
TRACK VWS IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER INCREASE CAUSING TD MA-ON TO
DISSIPATE WITHIN 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 8 FEET.//
NNNN