WPAC: Remnant Low 28W

[euro6208]

96W INVEST 161109 1800 10.4N 171.5E WPAC 15 NA

Very impressive looking system in the Marshall Islands.

[euro6208]

This just came out of nowhere. EURO very robust on it suddenly.

1002 mb south of Guam



955 mb east of P.I. and landfalls south of where Haima made.

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.4N 171.5E, APPROXIMATELY 245 EAST-NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 091840Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE DEPICT PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WITH SHALLOW BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A MOSTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
A 090923Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS (15-20 KT) WINDS AROUND THE NORTH AND
EAST QUADRANTS OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS IN THE AREA ARE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH BROAD DIFFLUENCE, MODERATE (15-20 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
THE DISTURBANCE TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT AS
THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

TXPQ23 KNES 092157
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96W)

B. 09/2030Z

C. 11.0N

D. 170.7E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...A LLCC WITH CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES NEAR A SMALL
COLD OVERCAST YIELDS A DT OF 2.0. MET=1.0 AND PT=1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SZATANEK

[1900hurricane]

96W actually had decent vorticity yesterday, but it's looking even better today. It looks like it might already be a tropical depression (perhaps for at least half a day) based on microwave and ASCAT data. The latest visible image and ASCAT pass is below.





I've been a little out of the loop for the past several days due to some busy times on my end, so I'm not quite sure what is in store for 96W's future right now. It may be worth noting that it is coming out of a late-season climatological hot spot though.

[ManilaTC]

JMA has the system as a "minor" Tropical Depression on its 00z weather map
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 11N 170E WEST 15 KT.

Model wise, this maybe the one to pass south of Guam.

[mrbagyo]

haha, I'm also surprised of 96w popping out of nowhere
IMO, a track south of Guam would give it a higher chance of development.
and if 96w wants to prosper, it should stay at relatively lower latitude as the cold surge is now blowing in WPAC.

[euro6208]

Wow that was fast.

WTPN21 PGTW 100530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.8N 170.7E TO 11.9N 159.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 100300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.8N 170.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.4N 171.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 170.0E, APPROXIMATELY
185NM NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH WELL DEFINED CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A MHS
100257Z MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN
FROM THE WESTERN SIDE. RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY REVEALS A MORE
PRONOUNCED WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 15-20 KTS OF WIND. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS) AND WEAK DIVERGENT OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC
MODELS INDICATE LIMITED DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS
WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
110530Z.
//
NNNN

[euro6208]

The future doesn't seem so bright.

The usually notorious CMC dropped this in the latest run.

GFS still not developing this.

EURO tracks this all the way to Luzon and makes landfall at 1002 mb.

NAVGEM has a 990mb system but not sure if it's this one or another system developing in front of 96W but it's in the same timeframe as EURO and GFS.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

NWS

A circulation northwest of Kwajalein Atoll near 10N166E remains
the subject of a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert by the Joint
Typhoon Warning Center. Overnight satellite animation shows the
circulation drifting west or west-southwestward. The center of
circulation is difficult to pinpoint due to deep convection around
the center. Daytime visible imagery should better help reveal the
center if it is still exposed as it was during the daytime
yesterday. IR satellite animation vs Ascat pass over the center
agrees well with model guidance in the short-term with this
circulation heading west or west-southwest the next couple days.
GFS and ECMWF maintains a general heading to the west with no
significant growth, but could bring showers and thunderstorms to
northern islands of eastern Micronesia the next few days,
therefore we will maintain a close watch for any changes with this
system. Strongest winds are located north of the center and will
pass over Enewetak Atoll today. At this time...damaging winds are
not expected, but heavy showers, isolated thunderstorms and gusty
winds are expected across that atoll. Gusty winds at Bikini Atoll
will subside this morning as drier weather is building in there.
Showers, thunderstorms and gusty winds will also reach Ujelang
later this morning.

[euro6208]

Upgarded to the 28th TC of the year.

28W TWENTYEIGHT 161110 1800 9.9N 165.4E WPAC 20 1011

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (TWENTYEIGHT)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 28W (TWENTYEIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
139 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ENEWETAK, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATED AS FORMATIVE BANDS
HAVE BEGUN TO WRAP INTO A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON ANALYSIS OF THE
ABOVE WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS
BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES BETWEEN
T1.5 AND T2.0 (30-35 KNOTS) AND IS SUPPORTED BY A 101910Z WINDSAT
SCATTEROMETER BULLSEYE SHOWING A BROAD AREA OF 25-30 KNOT WINDS
NEARLY SURROUNDING THE LLCC. HIGHER WINDS ARE INDICATED IN THE
WINDSAT DATA, BUT ANALYSIS INDICATES THESE ARE UNREPRESENTATIVE OF
THE ACTUAL WIND FIELD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND WEAKLY DIVERGENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS
TRACKING WESTWARD WITH THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW SOUTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY ON THIS SYSTEM.
B. TD 28W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE STR TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE FIRST 72 HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE
VWS, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WEAK WESTERLY OUTFLOW, WHICH
WILL PROMOTE SLOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAU'S, THE STR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE
DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AND THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ON A
GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK. MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST, BRINGING TD 26W TO 60 KNOTS BY END OF
FORECAST. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

000
WWMY80 PGUM 110440
SPSMY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
240 PM CHST FRI NOV 11 2016

GUZ001>004-120200-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
240 PM CHST FRI NOV 11 2016

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W HAS FORMED NORTH OF KOSRAE...

AT 100 PM THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...NEWLY-FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28W WAS CENTERED WELL NORTH OF KOSRAE ABOUT 1250 MILES EAST OF THE
MARIANA ISLANDS...NEAR 10 DEGREES NORTH AND 163 DEGREES EAST. TD 28W
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AND INTENSIFY SLOWLY OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...TAKING IT SOUTH OF GUAM AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL EXACTLY WHEN OR HOW MUCH 28W WILL END
UP AFFECTING THE MARIANAS...BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TROPICAL
STORM OR TYPHOON CONDITIONS IF 28W TRACKS A LITTLE MORE NORTH AND
INTENSIFIES MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED. STAY INFORMED ON THIS
DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION OVER THE WEEKEND...AND LISTEN FOR THE
LATEST STATEMENTS AND ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OR YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE.

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE POSTED ON THE
WFO GUAM WEB PAGE AT WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/ (ALL LOWER CASE).

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (TWENTYEIGHT)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 28W (TWENTYEIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
284 NM NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
COMPLETE DISSIPATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE WEAK LLCC IS EVIDENT IN AN
110606Z GPM 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT
POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 30
KNOTS BASED ON THE DEFINED LLCC IN THE GPM IMAGE; HOWEVER, THE
INTENSITY COULD BE LOWER. TD 28W IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE UNDER STRONG EASTERLY FLOW. LIMITED DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW
TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE WANING CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING WESTWARD WITH THE
EASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK
PHILOSOPHY; HOWEVER, THE PEAK INTENSITY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS
BEEN DECREASED.
B. TD 28W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE STR TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNCHANGED WHICH WILL CAUSE THE
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE TO CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH ONLY SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLE.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THE STR WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
STEERING MECHANISM FORCING THE CYCLONE ON A GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MARGINAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD KEEPING THE CYCLONE AT A WEAK
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK; HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE FORWARD SPEED AND THE DEGREE OF THE NORTHWESTWARD
COURSE. THE EARLY INSTABILITY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 110934
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP282016
800 PM CHST FRI NOV 11 2016

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W MOVING WESTWARD NEAR UJELANG...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.5N 161.5E

ABOUT 40 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF UJELANG
ABOUT 145 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ENEWETAK
ABOUT 310 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KOSRAE
ABOUT 290 MILES NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 1130 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 1165 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...260 DEGREES AT 17 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 9.5 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 161.5 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST AT 17 MPH. THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHT CHANGES
IN FORWARD SPEED. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK TAKES 28W NORTH OF
POHNPEI ON SATURDAY AND NORTH OF CHUUK ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 35 MPH. INTENSIFICATION HAS
STOPPED FOR NOW BUT WILL LIKELY RESUME SUNDAY...WHEN TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 28W MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AT 200 AM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

$$

STANKO

[wxman57]

I don't see anything there on satellite. Looks like it has dissipated.

[euro6208]

Deep convection has come back again. Let's see if it can persist or just die like it has been for the past couple of days.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Straight runner. Roke 2005??



eerie...

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (TWENTYEIGHT)
WARNING NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (TWENTYEIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 120000Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX.
THE INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. DEEP CONVECTION
HAS SHEARED TO THE WEST OF TD 28W OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, LEAVING
THE STRUGGLING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED. THE
SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. IT
IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TD 28W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE CONTINUED STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. PERSISTENT EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR-TERM.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF DISSIPATION WITH THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO, SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS CURRENTLY REGARDED AS A MORE
LIKELY SCENARIO DUE TO ANTICIPATED PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER AND
FAVORABLE WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TD 28W WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE TO
THE NORTH. STEADIER INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY AFTER TAU 72 AS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEGINS TO DECREASE. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK
FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND
THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN