Texas Fall-2016

[gboudx]

and dry NW flows...

I am so done with these 80s btw... they keep coming back!

I ruined Winter when I bought 1/4 cord of firewood this past weekend. Winter cancel. Sorry.

At least you'll still have a 1/4 cord for next winter..

I still have almost about 1/8 from last winter. I'll have firewood that needs nothing more than a spark to get roaring.

[Golf7070]

Ntxw, how is that SSW transpiring? With that image u posted the other day. I read something on another forum that the SSW that does develop had all the cold air going overseas again. Hope that don't happen.

[Brent]

2 years ago today it snowed in Dallas... this year... the record high of 86 is at risk...

This much hyped pattern change can't come soon enough.

[srainhoutx]

Wednesday morning briefing from Jeff:

Near record/record high temperatures today and Thursday come to an abrupt end Friday.

Dry air mass in place overnight has led to temperatures falling well into the 50’s this morning. Just above the surface SW winds and temperatures near 70 will quickly mix down to the surface within a few hours of sunrise. Looking to hit 80+ at all locations this afternoon with some locations up to 85 which is the record for today. Moisture begins to increase later this afternoon and into Thursday ahead of a strong frontal passage expected on Friday.

Strong trough will begin to overspread the western high plains today forcing surface low pressure over the front range of the Rockies which will move NNE toward the Midwest Thursday into Friday while developing into a blizzard. Cold air mass over southern Canada will be dislodged and sent southward down the western high plains and rapidly into TX late Thursday. Front will roar off the TX coast around midday Friday. Latest guidance is starting to show a more define short wave with good timing with the frontal lift to help overcome meager dynamics Friday morning. GFS is most robust with rainfall and QPF and hits our northern counties hard to 2.0 inches or so…while the rest of the models are much less bullish. Think the best course of action is to lean toward the drier solutions, but if the short range models trend toward the GFS more confidence in a widespread wetting rainfall with the front would then be expected and QPF totals would need to be bumped up from .25-.50 of an inch into the .5-1.5 inches.

Big story will be the onset of strong cold air advection late Friday morning behind the front. Expect temperatures in the low to mid 70’s ahead of the boundary to fall quickly into the 60’s and even upper 50’s during the afternoon hours as the cold air mass sweeps into the region. Gusty NW winds of 15-25mph will make it feel even colder along with the fact that it has been incredibly warm thus far this fall.

Next item is how cold it will get Saturday night into Sunday morning. This looks to be the coldest morning as Saturday will still feature building high pressure and gusty winds to level to lows in the 40’s. However Sunday morning the sprawling surface high will be directly overhead with calm winds and clear skies and expect temperatures to fall into the lower 40’s and upper 30’s over the region. Could certainly be some frost Sunday morning from College Station to Lufkin and around the normal cold Conroe. It is interesting that the raw GFS output bottoms Conroe out at 33 with a dewpoint of 31 Sunday morning…so we could be within a couple degrees of freezing in the normally cold and sheltered locations, but a widespread freeze is not expected at this point.

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, how is that SSW transpiring? With that image u posted the other day. I read something on another forum that the SSW that does develop had all the cold air going overseas again. Hope that don't happen.

It hasn't made its way down to the troposphere and won't until the end of the month or early next month. I'm not sure if it will greatly effect us or not yet.

My biggest failure this month was assuming La Nina conditions would take over. Frankly it has not and the El Nino raging NPAC has continued. Ghost of the super nino still haunts us in the sky. The colder patterns have been transient and lacks cold air while the warmer pattern has more umph to it from the Pacific

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Three GFS runs in a row with a strong -EPO signature.

I feel like the warm pool just NW of Hawaii is boosting these lows in the GOA, allowing them to pump the pacific air into Canada. As this warm pool shifts to the NE in the GOA region, this will help produce a more favorable -EPO. Im ok with it, at least we arent wasting solid cold fronts in November, rather save them for when we can really get the full effect!

Hopefully e can get some good snow cover over the next few weeks. We have a lot of football left folks!

[Tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 161131
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
531 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2016

.AVIATION...
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. OTHERWISE, VFR TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING
SSE AT 6 TO 8 KNOTS BY LATE THIS MORNING AND ON THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AND VFR AT MOST SITES TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
FOG DEVELOPMENT AT OUR RURAL SPOTS BEFORE SUNRISE. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CST Wed Nov 16 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The now familiar warmth continues through the midweek, but as has
been advertised for some time now, a Friday cold front will put
that warmth to an end for the weekend. Next week, we should see
a warming trend until another midweek front repeats our weekend
performance.

Today through Thursday night...
Believe it or not, a weak cold front managed to sag through the
area today. Despite that, Galveston still set a record high
temperature. Rather than usher in a notably cooler airmass,
mesoanalysis shows that it`s been low level moisture that`s been
dropping behind the boundary. This should allow for chillier low
temperatures than Monday night. Though calm winds look to become
onshore around sunrise, that`s likely much too late for moisture
to recover and encourage much fog development. Still, it wouldn`t
be a surprise for spots known to fog most readily (particularly
near the coast) to fog up a touch. Despite the cooler start, still
look for temperatures today to be roughly as warm as yesterday. By
Wednesday night, moisture will have recovered enough for warmer
lows and better fog potential. Winds look modestly stronger, which
could mitigate the situation some, but have at least started with
an attempt at some fog in the weather grids. Thursday looks like
more of the same.

Friday...
The timing of the frontal passage continues to inch upwards -
indeed, in the guidance, the GFS is now a touch faster than the
Euro, arriving in our northwestern zones Friday morning. As such,
the timing of the forecast is a bit more confident in a passage
through the morning now. The GFS also has a more potent
precipitation solution, likely associated with a shortwave trough
rounding through in just the right place and just the right time
to enhance frontal showers and storms. Though this doesn`t show
up in other guidance, the Euro and NAM at least hint at the
presence of this impulse, so I bit some into higher precip totals.
Didn`t go all the way with the GFS, which puts 2 inch totals north
of the Houston metro, but now range from two tenths to half an
inch of rain. It would be interesting to see how convection
allowing guidance handles this, but even the Texas Tech WRF stops
just short of the most interesting time right now. As usual,
localized spots underneath the most intense cores of
showers/storms will see more.

Friday night and the weekend...
With greater confidence in the quicker timing, now clear things
out more quickly Friday evening/night. Behind the front, winds
just off the deck suggest gusty conditions over the waters (see
Marine section) and immediate coastal areas, but less so farther
inland. Given the strong surge of very dry low level air in the
guidance, have collaborated with all the neighbors to undercut
temps and dewpoints, and undercut the model consensus on the surge
of colder air, as well as for lows Saturday night into Sunday as
high pressure quickly sets up overhead with clear skies and light
winds. There would be more confidence if there was a greater area
of snow cover to our north to mitigate modification of the
airmass, but still feel good enough about it to go along for the
relatively modest undercutting of the guidance that we`ve made. I`ve
spent too many nights chasing lows in the Wisconsin Northwoods in
a similar situation this time of year. Discussion for this period
focuses on nighttime conditions, as there isn`t much to say about
the daytime. Clear skies, temperatures that are noticeably but not
dramatically below normal...all in all, what should be a great
weekend to get out and do stuff.

Next week...
A 588 dam ridge looks to build over South Texas late in the
weekend, and as a surface high moves eastward, onshore flow should
resume. This sets the stage for warming into the 70s early next
week, as well as some partly cloudy skies. The next weathermaker
looks to arrive in the form of another front in the midweek -
bringing another chance of rain. But, at least at this time, not
quite the same impacts to temperatures. Worth mentioning, though,
that the Euro could signal a more significant hit to temps if its
post-frontal airmass surges farther west than currently shown.

Luchs

MARINE...
Light southeast winds return to the area today as high pressure
moves off to the east. This onshore flow strengthens and seas
begin to build tonight through Thursday night under a tightening
pressure gradient in response to deepening low pressure in the lee
of the Rockies. Caution flags are anticipated (mainly just for the
offshore waters) beginning Thursday afternoon or evening. Still
anticipating weakening winds and lowering seas on Friday in advance
of an approaching cold front. This strong front should cross the
coast late Friday afternoon or early Friday evening with strong
north winds developing in its wake. Small craft advisories will be
needed behind the front for building seas and the strengthening
winds, and some of the wind gusts could approach gale force. North
to northeast winds will begin to relax and seas will begin to come
down Saturday night as high pressure builds into the area. Onshore
winds return to the area on Monday.

The strengthening onshore flow coupled with an astronomically high
tide will bring elevated water levels toward the coast today and
Thursday, but water levels are expected to remain at or below 3 feet.
42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 83 60 82 64 72 / 0 0 10 20 50
Houston (IAH) 84 62 84 68 76 / 0 0 10 10 60
Galveston (GLS) 78 69 80 72 77 / 0 0 10 10 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...25
Aviation/Marine...42

[Ntxw]

Three GFS runs in a row with a strong -EPO signature.

I feel like the warm pool just NW of Hawaii is boosting these lows in the GOA, allowing them to pump the pacific air into Canada. As this warm pool shifts to the NE in the GOA region, this will help produce a more favorable -EPO. Im ok with it, at least we arent wasting solid cold fronts in November, rather save them for when we can really get the full effect!

Hopefully e can get some good snow cover over the next few weeks. We have a lot of football left folks!

I am particularly interested in the potential severe -NAO/Hudson block. With a little help from the Pacific that is a classic winter storm potential pattern. Historically that set up produces a parade of bowling ball systems

In the 6-10 day range the Aleutian high should break the Pacific and help that warm pool you mentioned

[Ralph's Weather]

I am particularly interested in the potential severe -NAO/Hudson block. With a little help from the Pacific that is a classic winter storm potential pattern. Historically that set up produces a parade of bowling ball systems

In the 6-10 day range the Aleutian high should break the Pacific and help that warm pool you mentioned

It sounds like things may begin ramping up post-TDay as we have been thinking for a while now. I am ready for the jet to bend up into Alaska so it can tap into Siberian air. We have northern blocking just need it to develop upstream in the Pacific.

[Ntxw]

I am particularly interested in the potential severe -NAO/Hudson block. With a little help from the Pacific that is a classic winter storm potential pattern. Historically that set up produces a parade of bowling ball systems

In the 6-10 day range the Aleutian high should break the Pacific and help that warm pool you mentioned

It sounds like things may begin ramping up post-TDay as we have been thinking for a while now. I am ready for the jet to bend up into Alaska so it can tap into Siberian air. We have northern blocking just need it to develop upstream in the Pacific.

Yeah, Im not as worried about blocking I think the 500mb height fields will work out. Mostly need the Pacific to relax a bit so that we can load up some meaningful cold air in Canada

[Brent]

Could approach 80 again next week before Thanksgiving if the GFS is right... Plenty more 70s certainly.

Through the end of the month it looks like mostly transient cold with big warmups in between, maybe it changes beyond 300 hours(which is pretty much December)...

there's no way November probably isn't gonna finish like October, probably in top 10 warmest.

[Ralph's Weather]

This weekend will be a welcome change. Starting with rain and storms tomorrow night followed by a blustery day on Friday with temps struggling to reach 60. Saturday morning could feature frost especially NW of DFW and Sunday morning will likely feature frost at least outside of the cities all over the northern half of Texas. Daytime temps will likely be in the 50s on Saturday and maybe low 60s on Sunday. We will warm some early in the week before another likely weaker front for mid week.

[Texas Snowman]

We have a lot of football left folks!

Exactly! Like everyone else, I'm a bit tired of this much above normal weather that we have in the southern Great Plains. After all, it's deer season and duck season in Texas and warm weather isn't what the doctor ordered for either pursuit.

But it isn't time to call for a winter cancel. I mean my goodness, it isn't even Thanksgiving yet. Sometimes, I think we put far too much stock into medium and long range model predictions, failing to realize that for every 100 or so "Cat 5 in the Gulf" model runs that come out, few, if any of those ever materialize.

Will we ever get any meaningful cold and/or winter precipitation this season in Texas? I certainly hope so. But to say one way or the other at this point in the game that it will or will not happen, well, in my opinion, that's far too premature.

[Portastorm]

Already have broken the daily high temp record here at Austin when ABIA hit 85 degrees. Record for this date at Camp Mabry (KATT) is 87. We may break that one too.

Cold front can't get here soon enough.

[Texas Snowman]

Already have broken the daily high temp record here at Austin when ABIA hit 85 degrees. Record for this date at Camp Mabry (KATT) is 87. We may break that one too.

Cold front can't get here soon enough.

Agreed!!!!! It's currently 82 in Denison. That's 20 degrees above normal and threatening the daily record, which I believe is 84.

[gboudx]

If any of this "winter cancel" stuff is directed at what I posted, I posted in jest; like saying it's gonna rain because you washed your car. But yes these 80's in mid-November suck and make it hard to think about chestnuts roasting on an open fire, or sleigh bells ringing while snow is glistening. I did burn 6 sticks of wood this past Saturday and look forward to firing it up again this weekend.

[srainhoutx]

Enjoy this beautiful weather while it lasts. Changes are lurking just beyond Thanksgiving and I will not be surprised to see the zonal flow relax and the 'stepping down' process begin in earnest as we near Mid December. By the Christmas Holiday period, we could be wishing for warmer weather. In a couple of weeks we will see if that 1983 analog has validity...

[Golf7070]

Enjoy this beautiful weather while it lasts. Changes are lurking just beyond Thanksgiving and I will not be surprised to see the zonal flow relax and the 'stepping down' process begin in earnest as we near Mid December. By the Christmas Holiday period, we could be wishing for warmer weather. In a couple of weeks we will see if that 1983 analog has validity...

Srainhoutx, to achieve 1983, we will have to get an incredible shift in the Pacific pattern imo. Way too progressive. Even with a -ao and -nao, the Pacific is still too strong. Imo obviously . Hopefully it changes though

[TarrantWx]

This is encouraging

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/798981235024404480

[Ntxw]

Enjoy this beautiful weather while it lasts. Changes are lurking just beyond Thanksgiving and I will not be surprised to see the zonal flow relax and the 'stepping down' process begin in earnest as we near Mid December. By the Christmas Holiday period, we could be wishing for warmer weather. In a couple of weeks we will see if that 1983 analog has validity...

Srainhoutx, to achieve 1983, we will have to get an incredible shift in the Pacific pattern imo. Way too progressive. Even with a -ao and -nao, the Pacific is still too strong. Imo obviously . Hopefully it changes though

1983 behaved like this with the Pacific, it managed to relax in December. Though we are warmer at the surface than 1983 at the surface. Also 1983 was a volcanic winter post El Chichon but that doesn't mean the 500mb progression can't follow it