Texas Fall-2016

[Ntxw]

Parallel euro weeklies (will join update) has the blocky episode. And by mid December matures ridging in Alaska with cross polar flow.

[weatherdude1108]

Front has move through here. Gusty winds. Relative humidity dropped from the 70s to the 40s in five minutes according to a Weather Underground observer station nearby.

[South Texas Storms]

Parallel euro weeklies (will join update) has the blocky episode. And by mid December matures ridging in Alaska with cross polar flow.

Yep, December is looking quite cold and active around here.

The 12z GFS shows a very potent storm system tracking across the state in about 10-12 days. Could have a severe weather and winter weather event if it pans out.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Pop, block and drop it.

[Portastorm]

Photo taken this morning of convey of trucks headed for scenic southwest Travis County and an office simply known as: "PWC."

[Tireman4]

Photo taken this morning of convey of trucks headed for scenic southwest Travis County and an office simply known as: "PWC."

It is not real until we see a photo of Champ the Charger ( The official chase car of the PWC)

[Tireman4]

Here she comes..come on front...

000
FXUS64 KHGX 181747
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1147 AM CST Fri Nov 18 2016

.AVIATION...
The cold front will be moving into the KCLL site sometime around
18Z...KIAH 21-22Z...and KGLS 23-24Z. However, some of the high res
models are indicating a slightly faster movement. Main hazards
will thunderstorms with a chance of gusty winds in the stronger
storms. Behind the front north winds will develop with a brief
period of gusts to 20 knots possible over the inland sites through
sunset. However, KHOU and KLBX will likely see a long period of
gusts to 22 knots overnight and Saturday morning. KGLS will likely
see a long period of gusts to 34 knots after 05Z this evening
through 15Z Saturday morning.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1047 AM CST Fri Nov 18 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Front is making good southward progress and on the doorstep of
northern counties. Should start seeing band of shra/tstms fill in
as it approaches the coast and merges with moisture/precip moving
up the Texas coastline. Forecast is in good shape...just minor
tweaks based on trends. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 72 42 62 37 65 / 70 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 80 46 64 40 65 / 70 10 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 80 53 63 51 64 / 60 40 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CST this evening for the
following zones: Brazoria...Chambers...Galveston...
Matagorda.

GM...Gale Watch from 9 PM CST this evening through Saturday morning
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...
Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until noon CST today for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...47
Aviation/Marine...40

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Yesterday my anemometer stopped working on my station, or i should say, stopped spinning. Lets just say, my 6 ft 6" frame with the pool brush on a ladder to spin my anemometer 23 ft up in the air to get it going wasnt the easiest thing ive done. TPB weather center is ready for the front!

[weatherdude1108]

Photo taken this morning of convey of trucks headed for scenic southwest Travis County and an office simply known as: "PWC."

It is not real until we see a photo of Champ the Charger ( The official chase car of the PWC)

What's the story of the Gray Goose again? I don't think I was on this thread back when it started.

[Ntxw]

Euro is trying to get there. Enjoy Thanksgivings it will be seasonable. Gear up shortly after cause I have a feeling we will be model watching late into the night...

DFW airport may escape an official freeze this weekend (will come close) but everyone outside of the central urban core will likely hit it.

[Brent]

That storm to open December has my interest... it's a long way out but the cold air isn't far away.

[JayDT]

Pop, block and drop it.

This actually made me lol

[Ntxw]

That storm to open December has my interest... it's a long way out but the cold air isn't far away.

It is on all guidance and more importantly it is a strong signal on the ensembles. With the Hudson block it has no where to go but trend south. It's going to be a parade of storms forced down from Alaska.

[horselattitudesfarm]

I am guessing it will rain just enough with this front down here to scatter the dust on our vehicles into beige-colored dust drops. This is based on personal history.
But I am glad the 80s are done for now.

Uh.....what is rain??

[horselattitudesfarm]

All 'hell to break loose' here Saturday with yet another dry front bringing a 'catastrophic wind event' with all the ongoing wildfires. Prepare for the whole southeast to be in flames after this with massive evacuations. Discussion shows this:

Wind concerns become amplified on Sat night, mainly along the
eastern escarpment of the Blue Ridge, as deep/unidirectional and
strong NW flow, with attendant strong mountain wave signal depicted
in model cross-sections. H8 winds in the latest NAM guidance are as
high as 55 kts near the Blue Ridge Sunday morning. This is still
quite strong, but about 10 kts less than yesterday`s guidance. There
is still concern that a nocturnal downslope/mtn wave high wind event
could occur along/near the eastern escarpment during this time,...."based
upon the volatile conditions re: fuels, collaboration with the
USFS, SCFC, and the Pinnacle Mountain Incident Command Team has
resulted in a decision to issue a Red Flag Warning for Upstate
SC for tomorrow. A Fire Danger Statement will be issued for the
remainder of the forecast area Sat through Sunday.

Don't really understand what this means but fire forecast is dire and they are making emergency preparations now. This is hell.
I'd post this in another forum but I know more people here. Anyway what happens weatherwise in Texas usually comes over here next.

[Ntxw]

All 'hell to break loose' here Saturday with yet another dry front bringing a 'catastrophic wind event' with all the ongoing wildfires. Prepare for the whole southeast to be in flames after this with massive evacuations. Discussion shows this:

Wind concerns become amplified on Sat night, mainly along the
eastern escarpment of the Blue Ridge, as deep/unidirectional and
strong NW flow, with attendant strong mountain wave signal depicted
in model cross-sections. H8 winds in the latest NAM guidance are as
high as 55 kts near the Blue Ridge Sunday morning. This is still
quite strong, but about 10 kts less than yesterday`s guidance. There
is still concern that a nocturnal downslope/mtn wave high wind event
could occur along/near the eastern escarpment during this time,...."based
upon the volatile conditions re: fuels, collaboration with the
USFS, SCFC, and the Pinnacle Mountain Incident Command Team has
resulted in a decision to issue a Red Flag Warning for Upstate
SC for tomorrow. A Fire Danger Statement will be issued for the
remainder of the forecast area Sat through Sunday.

Don't really understand what this means but fire forecast is dire and they are making emergency preparations now. This is hell.
I'd post this in another forum but I know more people here. Anyway what happens weatherwise in Texas usually comes over here next.

Unfortunately it doesn't look like any meaningful rain will happen the next 2 weeks for your area in the southeast. Perhaps with the full scale hemispheric pattern change a couple storms can take the southern route and come out of the gulf instead of cut up to the lakes. We're praying for you guys, maybe the system next weekend will be a little wetter than progged for the southeast

[weatherdude1108]

Wow!

Guess I need to bring my container plants in.


Freeze Warning
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
238 AM CST SAT NOV 19 2016

TXZ171>173-183>192-202>204-206-191645-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FZ.W.0002.161120T0900Z-161120T1500Z/
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-KINNEY-UVALDE-MEDINA-COMAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BRACKETVILLE...UVALDE...
HONDO...NEW BRAUNFELS
238 AM CST SAT NOV 19 2016

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY.

* TEMPERATURE...RANGING FROM 27 TO 32 DEGREES

* IMPACTS...DAMAGE TO CROPS OR SENSITIVE VEGETATION MAY OCCUR IF
LEFT UNPROTECTED. PLEASE BRING OUTSIDE ANIMALS INSIDE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

ALLEN

[TheProfessor]

It was nice and toasty yesterday, now it's nice and snowy today. Had a heavy shower come through(still too warm to accumulate) there's another band moving towards me.

[Golf7070]

Ntwx, Mike ventrice seemed intrigued about the stratosphere and troposphere coupling soon. What are your thoughts in that? Do you still like realistically 1983 as analog?

[gpsnowman]

Watching the snow fly at the Michigan Indiana game currently. Man, what a beautiful sight.