WPAC: Tokage - Post-Tropical

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This is what the models have been consistently been developing for the past few days. A west-runner becoming a low-end typhoon crossing the Visayas.

98W INVEST 161120 0000 3.4N 144.4E WPAC 15 1006

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Classic looking low-rider..

[euro6208]

98W INVEST 161120 0600 3.7N 143.6E WPAC 15 1006

Latest fix is right under the deepest convection.



Already getting that look.

[euro6208]

NAVGEM goes out to sea.




CMC hits the Visayas but has trended east and east of every run.

[euro6208]

Tokage east of Visayas.



Typhoon very near Catanduanes Island.



Peak.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

NAVGEM goes out to sea.

CMC hits the Visayas but has trended east and east of every run.

Actually, the ECMWF and CMC have been flip-flopping with their track. CMC recurved it out to sea in earlier runs, but is now showing a Samar hit before recurving. I think they exaggerate the break in the STR. Now, 98W is located too close to the equator for it to be influenced by it. The stronger this thing gets, the less likely it would be for it to recurve.



The GFS has been very consistent showing a straight runner heading towards the Visayas and IMHO, it would feel the weakness in the STR only after crossing the Philippines.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS 06z still consistent in Visayas landfall

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

[1900hurricane]

The trend in forecast heights have been subtly falling over SE China for the past few days. I don't think these shortwaves will be influential enough to induce a full-blown recurve, but I do think a fairly pronounced northward component of motion will begin once over the Philippines at the current time.

[euro6208]

CMC sides with NAVGEM on the recurve barely missing the P.I.

EURO still the same on track and strength.

[euro6208]

NWS mentions some wet and windy weather for our neighboring islands.

The circulation that was south of Chuuk has been moving steadily
west-northwest. It is now located southeast of Yap. As the
circulation departed Chuuk, winds lowered and weather dried out.
Look for moister conditions Wednesday as the weakening convergence
zone from eastern Micronesia approaches. This will also serve to
increase the wind speeds a bit, although they should remain below
levels hazardous to small craft.

The approach of the circulation, which will pass to the south,
will be the main story at Yap. Showers will increase there by this
afternoon and winds will increase tonight as the pressure gradient
tightens north of the circulation. The winds will likely not be at
levels hazardous for small craft the entire duration of tonight
through Wednesday, for a significant portion of it though. Weather
will dry out then for Thursday and Friday with diminishing winds.
Winds were elevated to above small craft advisory criteria based
on new model runs and yellow winds moving in on ASCAT.

Palau will be north of the heaviest gradient flow, so winds should
remain below levels hazardous for small craft. However, the drier
weather today will not last as the circulation also approaches.
The circulation will pass nearer to Palau than it does to Yap, but
the heavy weather will not begin until Tuesday. By Thursday, the
winds will be light and the weather will have dried out as the
circulation moves away in the direction of the Philippines.

Building east-northeast trade-wind swell and wind waves will cause
seas and surf to rise across Palau and Yap the next few days. For
now, guidance keeps winds and waves below small craft criteria at
Palau, and surf below hazardous levels at both Palau and Yap.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Ridge rebuilding back in, likely a flood hazard this system for PI. A few models are ramping the low up in the south china sea
Other than that i like the freezing dam levels over N Japan....Snow!

[euro6208]

98W INVEST 161121 0600 3.0N 141.1E WPAC 15 1006

[euro6208]

Much weaker and south in the latest 00Z EURO run. Has *something* hitting Northern Mindanao, strengthens it into a wimpy tropical storm south of Oriental Mindoro, and peaks it at only 994mb west of Manila before dissipation.

[euro6208]

NWS

Fresh to strong northeast trades persist at Koror and Yap this
evening. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are building in at
both locations this evening as a broad circulation southeast of
Koror slowly heads west-northwest. Convergence north of the
disturbance will maintain showers, thunderstorms and fresh to
strong trades and gusty winds the next couple days. Latest model
guidance passes the circulation just south of Koror on Tuesday
with little to no significant development. Some development is
likely mid to late week once it is west of Koror. Some models do
show it becoming a tropical depression as it exits the WFO Guam
area of responsibility Wednesday or Thursday. We will keep a close
watch on this and its associated weather at Yap and Koror the next
few days as this disturbance evolves.

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.0N
140.0E, APPROXIMATELY 407 NM SOUTHEAST OF KOROR, PALAU. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED AND A 210824Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW
FLARING DISORGANIZED CONVECTION THROUGHOUT A VERY BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS IN THE AREA ARE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW AND LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A BROAD LLCC TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 3.0N 140.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.0N 138.9E, APPROXIMATELY 295
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR, PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 220031Z AMSU-B METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW
FLARING DISORGANIZED CONVECTION THROUGHOUT A VERY BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS IN THE AREA ARE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, EASTERLY
DIFFLUENT FLOW, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
THE DISTURBANCE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE PHILIPPINES
WITH DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.0N 138.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.2N 131.8E, APPROXIMATELY 160
NM WEST OF KOROR, PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 230104Z AMSU-B METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW FLARING
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION THROUGHOUT A VERY BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS IN THE AREA ARE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, EASTERLY
DIFFLUENT FLOW, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
THE DISTURBANCE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE PHILIPPINES
WITH DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[euro6208]

98W INVEST 161123 1800 8.6N 128.7E WPAC 20 1004

[1900hurricane]

Pending ASCAT, 98W may be worthy of classification.