Texas Fall-2016

[Golf7070]

Any updates on 12zgfs? Prolly not good since no one posted about it.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The latest Euro run is the upgraded version right? Hangs onto the storm for next week.

At 240 hours there is strong blocking in the Arctic

[Tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 221725
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1125 AM CST Tue Nov 22 2016

.AVIATION...
Forecast generally seems on track, with only small tweaks needed
in the first several hours. Ceilings are close to MVFR, but at
this time generally expect them to stay on the VFR side of the
fence and have kept that in the forecast. Winds will continue to
be generally southerly, and strengthen in advance of the front.
The VCSH at the northern sites to open the forecast is probably a
bit aggressive, but with no other real change in the forecast, did
not want to add yet another line for such a minor change.

Perhaps the most significant change comes in slowing up the most
likely timeframe for a line of showers and storms sweeping
through the area as the picture continues to evolve towards this
being an overnight/Wed morning event. Still, given some
uncertainty, have kept a relatively wide window of VCSH and VCTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CST Tue Nov 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...
With clouds/moisture streaming in from the SW this morning...we
are starting to see some light returns across northern portions
of the area. At this time...not sure if any of this is actually
reaching the ground, but as the airmass moistens up, we will be
seeing some light rain/showers sooner than later. Current grids
look to be on track so no significant changes planned with this
update. Quick look at the incoming guidance would seem to indi-
cate that the better/more organized storms could hold off until
overnight tonight. 41

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 512 AM CST Tue Nov 22 2016/

A vigorous shortwave disturbance is feeding into the southern
Rockies trough as it exits into the Plains states this morning.
The surface reflection of the trough`s associated cold front/warm
sector is entering the Texas Panhandle counties during the pre-
dawn hours. The northern passage of this upper trough and cold
front will initiate regional afternoon showers and isolated storms
leading to more areawide precipitation with a marginal chance for
overnight into early Wednesday morning strong to severe
thunderstorms.

Southwesterly mid-level steering flow...along with a moderate low
level southerly wind field...ahead of this southern Plains trough
is pulling in a more moist southern Texas/southwestern Gulf air
mass. Evening soundings of between a 0.5 to 1.0 inch pwats will
increase and pool up into the near 2 standard deviation 1.6 to 1.7
inch pwat range just downstream of this evening`s approaching
frontal boundary. The emergence of a greater than 30 knot low
level jet will enhance shear values to 20-25 kts and SRH values
into the 2-300 m**2/s**2 range within the lowest few kilometers
across the northern CWA through the day. These values are producing
a right curved hodograph this lends to the mention of enough shear
to generate rotating updrafts and develop/maintain supercelluar
storm structure. Thus the main threats for late day into early
Wednesday weather will be damaging downburst winds within or near
the core of the strongest more organized storm clusters...the
secondary threat will be for isolated tornadoes. Wet bulb zero
heights do fall to below 11k ft going into the evening so cannot
rule out small hail. An inhibitor to either the occurrence or
extent of severe weather will be early to mid day cloud cover
regulating surface warmth to the middle 70s with progged northern
CWA convective temperatures in the middle to upper 70s. Other
inhibiting factors include modest mid-level lapse rates that are
producing relatively lower most unstable parcel CAPE values...
although the more aggressive NAM model does produce late day
1000-1500 J/kg**2 values over the Brazos River Valley. Although
the better (thermo)dynamics will be displaced over northeastern
Texas there will be enough frontal forcing to allow a quasi-linear
.or ragged squall line feature to develop and travel east of
the Edwards Escarpment that will likely clip the northern counties
of our forecast area. This somewhat thin broken line of convection
will probably hold together as it travels south into the central
and southern CWA from the pre-dawn overnight hours through the
daylight morning hours.

High pressure quickly fills in behind tomorrow`s cold frontal
passage and kills any offshore pressure gradient. This will
generate a weaker veering north-to-east wind that will be back
onshore by early Friday morning. Weak ridging coming across the
state Thanksgiving Day will produce dry weather conditions...early
day clear skies becoming partially cloudy from the southwest.
Weak cold air advection behind Wednesday`s front will make for a
cool...but not too chilly...morning with sunrise temperatures in the
upper 40s to middle 50s warming into the middle 70s by the early
afternoon. A shallow upper trough passage Friday will pull in a weak
cool front into north central Texas Friday while pulling up a mild
warm front from the coast. Other than some weak PVA passing across
north state...there`s not much to support the rain showing up in the
NWP suite`s mass fields. For the sake of consistency ...have left 20-
30 POPS over the western forecast area going into the weekend.

Shallow transitory ridging this weekend with no precipitation...
near to slightly above normal temperature curve. The extended models
diverge upon how they are handling an early work week storm system.
The GFS digs down a deep trough into the state Monday while the Euro
hangs the trough back and lifts it out into northeastern Texas
Tuesday. Thus...rain/storm chances will be on the increase again
next Monday and Tuesday. Extended model statistics are for a 40-50%
chance for late Monday precipitation although with high variability
within their members. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 76 59 71 49 72 / 40 70 10 0 10
Houston (IAH) 77 65 74 50 74 / 30 70 60 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 75 69 75 61 71 / 20 60 60 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 3 PM CST this
afternoon for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to
the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...41
Aviation/Marine...25

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Whoever this guy is doing the HGX discussions is better than the last one. I feel like he gives in depth data about the atmosphere, more than the predecessor. Really appreciate his discussions.

[Ralph's Weather]

The 12Z GFS cuts the early Dec storm up NE through the Panhandle instead of sending it through Texas. Often these storms will dig further than what is modeled so I still think the 06Z path is more reasonable. Both are lacking a strong Polar high that we would like to see for a cold surface temps.

[Ralph's Weather]

The rain is getting going in a couple bands between Dallas and Tyler, nothing bad as of yet. It has been cloudy all day.

[JDawg512]

Storms have fired up across the Austin area. Sky has darkened and hearing thunder.

[Portastorm]

Storms have fired up across the Austin area. Sky has darkened and hearing thunder.

Oh yeah, I had a great view as I drove, er, crawled down Mopac in the middle of it. A lot of heavy rain and a few impressive cloud-to-ground lightning strikes. Considering how many times we were at standstill, I should have done a Periscope.

[weatherdude1108]

Storms have fired up across the Austin area. Sky has darkened and hearing thunder.

Oh yeah, I had a great view as I drove, er, crawled down Mopac in the middle of it. A lot of heavy rain and a few impressive cloud-to-ground lightning strikes. Considering how many times we were at standstill, I should have done a Periscope.

I got caught in a brief downpour at a drive thru in Cedar Park around 5pm.

[Brent]

About to storm here, storms along the front blew up north of Dallas

and 30 minutes later it's history and there's a gusty NW wind and a cold draft coming into the window now lol

[1900hurricane]

SPC has introduced a slight risk in the day 6 Convective Outlook across Southeast Texas.

...DAY 6 (MONDAY)...
THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS TEND TO AGREE WITH THE SUFFICIENT INFLUX OF
MOISTURE FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN
LOUISIANA...WHILE HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH REACHING CENTRAL TEXAS TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. STRENGTHENING VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS...WITH THIS OUTLOOK ISSUANCE INTRODUCING A 15-PERCENT
SEVERE-WEATHER PROBABILITY FOR EAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA.

[aggiecutter]

1.5" of rain in Texarkana last night, with more on the way Sunday and Monday.

[Ralph's Weather]

I received about 2 inches of rain last night, a great relief to the very dry Fall we have had.
The models actually are not looking bad at all. High heights over Canada and low heights over the SW. I would like to see the heights rise over Alaska but otherwise all is looking good for December. It may take until mid month for the more winter like effects show up around here.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Loving that 0z Euro. It may not say snow here, but if that pattern is just the beginning, we are going to be very happy people.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

6z GFS... Hour 276 onward on the GFS brings 40s for highs into SE Texas and the mother load of Arctic Air entering the Northern Rockies at -20 to -30F

[dhweather]

6z GFS... Hour 276 onward on the GFS brings 40s for highs into SE Texas and the mother load of Arctic Air entering the Northern Rockies at -20 to -30F

I was just looking at this as well, 6Z is bullish with cold towards the end, some really cold air poised to come down the Rockies. Of course this is two weeks out, so don't hold your breath.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Looking at hour 168 on it seems we get a front every 3 or so days.

[Ntxw]

Don't sleep on next week or the first two weeks of December. It is fluid and will change frequently with the storm. It is not vodka cold pattern but chilly mischief potential. La Nina pattern sets up shop mid month with -EPO and we should break the dam if the regression pattern continues. Frankly to be blunt the 1983 analog on a global scale is holding fairly well

[Portastorm]

Parts of east and especially northeast Texas need rain.

[aggiecutter]

1.5" last night, with more on the way. Jeff Piotrowski thinks there could be a significant severe weather outbreak the first of next week in East Texas and Dixie Alley.