Texas Fall-2016

[Portastorm]

This year at Thanksgiving, I am thankful for the 18z GFS ...

[ThunderSleetDreams]

1050 High!

[Texas Snowman]

This year at Thanksgiving, I am thankful for the 18z GFS ...

Cat 5 in the Gulf?

Or a repeat of December 2013?

[Brent]

Winter is coming lol

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, I saw this huge Arctic High dome dropping down in the long long range in analyzing the Deep South Winter Weather Thread.

We will have to see if the teleconnection indicators will align correctly to allow for such an arctic outbreak to intrude into the CONUS, especially down into the nation's heartland south deep into Texas. This is way, way out in fantasy land right now, but we are that time where we sit and wait to see if Old Man Winter will finally come to flex his muscle. We will find out in time I guess.

[starsfan65]

:uarrow: Yeah, I saw this huge Arctic High dome dropping down in the long long range in analyzing the Deep South Winter Weather Thread.

We will have to see if the teleconnection indicators will align correctly to allow for such an arctic outbreak to intrude into the CONUS, especially down into the nation's heartland south deep into Texas. This is way, way out in fantasy land right now, but we are that time where we sit and wait to see if Old Man Winter will finally come to flex his muscle. We will find out in time I guess.

U think this is going to happen?

[starsfan65]

:uarrow: Yeah, I saw this huge Arctic High dome dropping down in the long long range in analyzing the Deep South Winter Weather Thread.

We will have to see if the teleconnection indicators will align correctly to allow for such an arctic outbreak to intrude into the CONUS, especially down into the nation's heartland south deep into Texas. This is way, way out in fantasy land right now, but we are that time where we sit and wait to see if Old Man Winter will finally come to flex his muscle. We will find out in time I guess.

U think this is going to happen?

We wait until the 00z run to see if it is still strong.

[northjaxpro]

I want to see what the teleconnections will indicate by this time next week before I can put a best guess percentage to see if an arctic intrusion will occur 14 days out. Too far out for any reasonable forecast on something like this.

But, I would be inclined to think we will see some pattern change to bring a significant cold spell sometime during the first half of December somewhere into the CONUS. That is as far as I will say for bow

[Ntxw]

Ensembles (closer range than weeklies) along with CFSv2 now support a possible fairly significant ridge in the EPO region. Odds continue to increase we will see a massive dome of high pressure emerge from the Aleutians and could make itself known into the Alaskan region. Definitely keep your eyes on it. The ensembles did very well foreseeing the current -AO/-NAO in advance.

The ghosts of the 1983 analog





The key is not to get caught up in any particular runs but that the cluster of model runs are clustering together. The more of them, the higher the confidence.

[starsfan65]

I want to see what the teleconnections will indicate by this time next week before I can put a best guess percentage to see if an arctic intrusion will occur 14 days out. Too far out for any reasonable forecast on something like this.

But, I would be inclined to think we will see some pattern change to bring a significant cold spell sometime during the first half of December into the CONUS. That is as far as I will say for now.

i rather have snow than ice.

[starsfan65]

Ensembles (closer range than weeklies) along with CFSv2 now support a possible fairly significant ridge in the EPO region. Odds continue to increase we will see a massive dome of high pressure emerge from the Aleutians and could make itself known into the Alaskan region. Definitely keep your eyes on it. The ensembles did very well foreseeing the current -AO/-NAO in advance.

The ghosts of the 1983 analog

i feel the ghosts of the 1983 cold snap in me.

[starsfan65]

Ensembles (closer range than weeklies) along with CFSv2 now support a possible fairly significant ridge in the EPO region. Odds continue to increase we will see a massive dome of high pressure emerge from the Aleutians and could make itself known into the Alaskan region. Definitely keep your eyes on it. The ensembles did very well foreseeing the current -AO/-NAO in advance.

The ghosts of the 1983 analog

i feel the ghosts of the 1983 cold snap in me.

Is that the maps of December 3rd and 4th I see?

[starsfan65]

Ensembles (closer range than weeklies) along with CFSv2 now support a possible fairly significant ridge in the EPO region. Odds continue to increase we will see a massive dome of high pressure emerge from the Aleutians and could make itself known into the Alaskan region. Definitely keep your eyes on it. The ensembles did very well foreseeing the current -AO/-NAO in advance.

The ghosts of the 1983 analog

i feel the ghosts of the 1983 cold snap in me.

Is that the maps of December 3rd and 4th I see?

We have 8 days left before December to enjoy this mild weather.

[Ntxw]

Ensembles (closer range than weeklies) along with CFSv2 now support a possible fairly significant ridge in the EPO region. Odds continue to increase we will see a massive dome of high pressure emerge from the Aleutians and could make itself known into the Alaskan region. Definitely keep your eyes on it. The ensembles did very well foreseeing the current -AO/-NAO in advance.

The ghosts of the 1983 analog

i feel the ghosts of the 1983 cold snap in me.

Is that the maps of December 3rd and 4th I see?

It is, but it is not the period in which any Siberian air mass, if there is, could be unleashed. I was merely pointing out that the Pacific was at that period beginning to cluster from the ensembles of the NPAC being unfavorable to really favorable for delivering outbreaks.

[starsfan65]

i feel the ghosts of the 1983 cold snap in me.

Is that the maps of December 3rd and 4th I see?

It is, but it is not the period in which any Siberian air mass, if there is, could be unleashed. I was merely pointing out that the Pacific was at that period beginning to cluster from the ensembles of the NPAC being unfavorable to really favorable for delivering outbreaks.

When do u think it will get very cold?

[Golf7070]

i feel the ghosts of the 1983 cold snap in me.

Is that the maps of December 3rd and 4th I see?

It is, but it is not the period in which any Siberian air mass, if there is, could be unleashed. I was merely pointing out that the Pacific was at that period beginning to cluster from the ensembles of the NPAC being unfavorable to really favorable for delivering outbreaks.

Ntwx, Allan huffman mentioned that euro ensembles are showing cross polar flow day 13+ but it way out there. He thinks true Siberian air possible. Do you agree or is the warm pool not strong enough to allow that to happen or what do u think will happen?

[Ntxw]

Is that the maps of December 3rd and 4th I see?

It is, but it is not the period in which any Siberian air mass, if there is, could be unleashed. I was merely pointing out that the Pacific was at that period beginning to cluster from the ensembles of the NPAC being unfavorable to really favorable for delivering outbreaks.

Ntwx, Allan huffman mentioned that euro ensembles are showing cross polar flow day 13+ but it way out there. He thinks true Siberian air possible. Do you agree or is the warm pool not strong enough to allow that to happen or what do u think will happen?

The Aleutian ridge is a sure bet. The atmosphere is finally responding to the very weak NIna. Western Canada is going to get cold along with Alaska as the flow gets cut off from the Pacific by the Aleutian ridge. Flow then is directed from Siberia. Remember the past 24 months the Aleutian low has dominated and cut North America off. The big question is will the ridge continue to progress and direct the cold air down to the US, that's more difficult to say. With the Northeast Canadian(hudson bay) block well in place, if we can get the Pacific to help us, we can get it cold and keep it cold.

[starsfan65]

It is, but it is not the period in which any Siberian air mass, if there is, could be unleashed. I was merely pointing out that the Pacific was at that period beginning to cluster from the ensembles of the NPAC being unfavorable to really favorable for delivering outbreaks.

Ntwx, Allan huffman mentioned that euro ensembles are showing cross polar flow day 13+ but it way out there. He thinks true Siberian air possible. Do you agree or is the warm pool not strong enough to allow that to happen or what do u think will happen?

The Aleutian ridge is a sure bet. The atmosphere is finally responding to the very weak NIna. Western Canada is going to get cold along with Alaska as the flow gets cut off from the Pacific by the Aleutian ridge. Flow then is directed from Siberia. Remember the past 24 months the Aleutian low has dominated and cut North America off. The big question is will the ridge continue to progress and direct the cold air down to the US, that's more difficult to say. With the Northeast Canadian(hudson bay) block well in place, if we can get the Pacific to help us, we can get it cold and keep it cold.

We are waiting to see how Pacific will respond.

[Ntxw]

We are waiting to see how Pacific will respond.

Yeah, as always the EPO (Pacific) is the cold loading pattern for North America. Without it, there is just no true cold air no matter how good the AO, NAO, or PNA is.

[starsfan65]

We are waiting to see how Pacific will respond.

Yeah, as always the EPO (Pacific) is the cold loading pattern for North America. Without it, there is just no true cold air no matter how good the AO, NAO, or PNA is.

what is the EPO stands now?