Florida Weather

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gatorcane
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Re: Florida Weather

#10921 Postby gatorcane » Sat Nov 12, 2016 6:04 pm

18Z GFS quite cold for Florida at 210 hours

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Re: Florida Weather

#10922 Postby SouthFloridian92 » Sun Nov 13, 2016 10:27 am

IT ain't funny. It would actually be nice if that happened. Let's hope it does.
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Re: Florida Weather

#10923 Postby gatorcane » Sun Nov 13, 2016 11:56 am

GFS has warmed on the 12Z run for Florida but still quite cold:

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Re: Florida Weather

#10924 Postby gatorcane » Sun Nov 13, 2016 6:00 pm

GFS continues to trend warmer for the early week of Thanksgiving cold front for Florida
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Re: Florida Weather

#10925 Postby gatorcane » Mon Nov 14, 2016 9:53 am

The ECMWF keeps the core of the cold air anomalies north of Florida but the latest GFS has actually trended a little colder again for Florida which is interesting:

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Re: Florida Weather

#10926 Postby gatorcane » Mon Nov 14, 2016 7:29 pm

GFS a little colder on the 18Z run:
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Re: Florida Weather

#10927 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Nov 14, 2016 10:11 pm

:uarrow: The GFS may have been onto something gatorcane with this being our first significant cold front of the season with the NAO forecasted to dip negative after mid month, along with the AO going negative, and the PNA staying positive the stage may be setting up for more cooler weather for the SE U.S. and Florida as per the latest CPC Temperature Outlooks from this afternoon.

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Re: Florida Weather

#10928 Postby gatorcane » Tue Nov 15, 2016 11:45 am

GFS continues to go with below to well below normal temps for Sunday through Tues. across Florida with very low dewpoints and N to NW winds ushering in some wind chills across much of the peninsula, especially Central and North Florida. Coldest night looks to be Sun night. Looks like a potent front but short-lived as things already start to moderate by Tues and into Tues night with return flow from the Atlantic. Dewpoints in the mid 10F's all the way down to Naples area. Quite impressive this time of year if this verifies.

Also in the long-range, the GFS has gone significantly colder for Thanksgiving into the Friday after Thanksgiving after the brief warm-up Wed. We'll have to watch this as we get closer to see if this is a one run anomaly or a trend.
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Re: Florida Weather

#10929 Postby NDG » Wed Nov 16, 2016 2:03 pm

Just as I thought the GFS started backing away as we get closer to next week from the upper 30s visiting central FL. The pattern is still not there yet for such below average temps to come down the Peninsula especially with the lack of snow coverage over the eastern US.
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Re: Florida Weather

#10930 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Nov 17, 2016 7:05 am

It got a bit colder than forecasted this morning as supreme radiational cooling conditions reigned across the region. The temperature dropped to 42.3 degrees at 6:43 a.m. here at my locale, the coldest so far this season. Cecil Commerce, located in western Duval County, is reporting 39 degrees this hour.

Beautiful autumn weather will continue the next week with no rain in the foreseeable future. A stronger, dry cold front moves through late Saturday night across Jax. It is possible we could see low-mid 30s by Tuesday morning in the colder interior areas across North Florida as the coldest air of the Fall season arrives early next week.
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Re: Florida Weather

#10931 Postby gatorcane » Thu Nov 17, 2016 5:04 pm

Looks like the latest GFS has trended a little colder for the this next front for Florida. Looks like low 40s across the I-4 corridor and upper 30s into north Florida. :cold:

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Re: Florida Weather

#10932 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Thu Nov 17, 2016 5:54 pm

Well maybe some cold will come after Thanksgiving. The NAO/AO forecast to go negative. But the models do flip-flop alot on a weekly basis. Have to wait and see.....

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... x/ao.shtml
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Re: Florida Weather

#10933 Postby NDG » Fri Nov 18, 2016 10:23 am

:uarrow: Ensembles have not been handling the NAO forecast too well, for 6 weeks they have been forecasting for the NAO to go big time negative but it has not happened, now the PNA is neutral, not a good combination for cold air to stick around that long central & s FL.

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Re: Florida Weather

#10934 Postby psyclone » Mon Nov 21, 2016 12:05 pm

44 this morning at Tampa, 50 at St Pete Clearwater. It felt so cold since it's been so long. Never to be outdone...central Florida's icebox...Brooksville... registered 29.
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Re: Florida Weather

#10935 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Nov 21, 2016 4:27 pm

First freeze of the season here earlier today at my locale. 29.7 degrees was measured. It got quite colder than forecasted. Coldest so far this season as well. Ideal radiational cooling conditions and the extremely dry soil is really allowing temps at the surface to crater for sure. Frost will be possible tonight in the colder, interior areas with light to calm wind across North and Northeast Florida tomorrow morning.

Expecting low-mid 30s again here and colder interior sections tomorrow morning.
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Re: Florida Weather

#10936 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Nov 21, 2016 4:52 pm

Also, the NWS Jax office issued this climo statistic recording the current drought which has ravaged the area and the Deep South in general. Wildfires continue across the areas of the Smoky Mountains across portions of North Carolina, Eastern Tennessee, and across extreme Northeast Georgia. Some of that smoke has drifted all the way south into our area of Northeast Florida.

We have not had any significant rainfall at all for all practical purposes across the region since the aftermath of Hurricane Matthew. This drought is closing in reaching historic levels for certain.

Extreme drought conditions across the area. We need rain desperately!!!


CLIMATE...

Alma GA...Today marks 37 consecutive days without rainfall. This is
the 2nd longest streak all-time and the all-time record of 38
consecutive days set in 1956 from 10-22 to 11-28 will likely be
broken this Wednesday.

Jacksonville FL...Only 0.02" precipitation has fallen since Oct
17th, this is the driest 36 day period on record from 10-17 to 11-
21, with the previous being 0.09" in 1940.

Gainesville FL...Only 0.02" precipitation has fallen since Oct 16th,
this is the driest 37 day period on record from 10-16 to 11-21, with
the previous being 0.08" in 2012.

St. Simons Island GA...Only 0.05" precipitation has fallen since Oct
16th, this is the 2nd driest 37 day period on record from 10-16 to
11-21, with the record of 0.02" in 1998.
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Re: Florida Weather

#10937 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Nov 24, 2016 11:03 pm

Oh GFS you never fail to entertain. By the way I hope everyone had a Happy Thanksgiving!

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Re: Florida Weather

#10938 Postby NDG » Fri Nov 25, 2016 11:15 am

All I want for Christmas is some rain, grass is as brown as it can be. Hot sun has been drying up everything. I have not had measurable precipitation since Matthew. Every other day I have had to water my garden, water bill is going to be really high next both.
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Re: Florida Weather

#10939 Postby MetroMike » Fri Nov 25, 2016 6:36 pm

NDG wrote:All I want for Christmas is some rain, grass is as brown as it can be. Hot sun has been drying up everything. I have not had measurable precipitation since Matthew. Every other day I have had to water my garden, water bill is going to be really high next both.

Hopefully we won't have to wait until Christmas for some good rains. It is turning unusually dry and impossible to keep a car clean.
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Re: Florida Weather

#10940 Postby tropicwatch » Sun Nov 27, 2016 6:13 pm

Finally the panhandle of Florida has decent rain chances in the forecast. Monday has a pretty good chance but Wednesday is the best chance for rain. We have had no rain for about two months and most of the area is in severe drought conditons.
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