Florida Weather

[StormingB81]

Where did fall go?

[northjaxpro]

Where did fall go?

Well, we will have a brief cooldown beginning Friday-Sunday of this week as a cold front slides throough the area. This will drop our temps back in the 40s for lows and highs in the mid 60s on Friday here. Right a normal for this time of year.

But, it will not last long. Long range indications show we may have to wait a bit longer for a signifcant cold spell to arrive in our region. Looks as if we may see a return of the Southeast Ridge to influence our region as we progresss into the first couple of weeks of December.

[TheStormExpert]

Here we go again with a repeat of last December.

I have a feeling we won't see any real significant cool downs here in South Florida until after the New Year like last year.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I have to agree. Dont see a real cool down anytime soon. NAO/AO is not showing any real negative through mid dec. Probably will be like last year down here.

[SouthFloridian92]

That blows. The weather climate in FL sucks big time. Maybe one day I'll finally get up to TN or the Carolinas.

[gatorcane]

Seems some Arctic blast is poised to invade the Western and Central US starting around a week. Let's see how far it makes it east as it could bring some chilly weather to the state for a change as shown by the last couple of of long-range GFS runs.

[TheStormExpert]

Why do we currently have the SE Heat Ridge over us and The Bahamas when the PNA is Positive, the NAO is Negative, and the AO is Neutral?

[gatorcane]

The 12Z GFS is coming in quite cold for Florida starting around a week from now with 30s into Central Florida. We have seem time and time again the GFS overdoing these cold fronts in the medium to long-range so is it doing the same this time? The ECMWF insists this cold stays north of peninsula Florida. We'll see what the 12Z ECMWF shows.

[gatorcane]

The 18Z GFS has two big cold shots into Florida over the next two weeks both of which bring 30s into Central Florida. We are getting closer to that time of year where we need to monitor for possible freeze events for peninsula Florida.

[gatorcane]

Things looks even colder for Florida based on last night's model runs for the end-of-next week's cold front.

[TheStormExpert]

Things looks even colder for Florida based on last night's model runs for the end-of-next week's cold front.

Yep gatorcane, even the 00z Euro has trended much more bullish with trying to drive the colder arctic airmass in our direction late next week.

[gatorcane]

Well the GFS is even colder again for Florida. The two coldest nights are Friday and Saturday nights (Dec 9th/10th) with Saturday being the coldest of the two nights by a little. The other thing to note is that Saturday night looks to have a prolonged period of 30s that night for Central and Northern Florida.

[gatorcane]

Check out the 12Z JMA, basically turning the Florida peninsula into a popsicle. Yikes...good think it is the JMA.



The 12Z ECMWF came in cold for Florida again similar to the 00Z run, maybe a tad warmer than the 00Z run but still very cold...30s into Central Florida it would appear.

[northjaxpro]

Well, as advertised, it looks as if the real deal in terms of Old Man Winter will be here by next Friday.. Earlier, it looked as if the SE ridge may hang tough, but a wicked surge of arctic air from Siberia has dislodged south into Western Canada. The S.E. U.S. Ridge will get pushed out of the way by a strong Arctic High dropping south into the Plains by next Friday. This will move down into the CONUS by next weekend.

The potential is there for temperatures to drop into the 20s across the colder, interior areas of North Florida next weekend. High temps may only max out in the upper 40s to low 50s next Friday and Saturday looking at the 7-day model guidance. The probability of seeing temps in the 30s next weekend across Central Florida is increasing at this time.

So, at least for the moment, it looks like folks that this December will not be a repeat of that record warm December 2015. Also, hopefully, the pattern will change to bring us much needed rain as time progresses.

[psyclone]

We've gone so long without legit winter weather here I have to wonder...just like hurricane season...if our luck has run out. We're due for freezes and an active fire season and this year may provide one or both. The NWS forecast has low 60's for highs with windy conditions in the bay area...implying active cold air advection which could mean the coldest temps still reside just beyond the 7 day forecast. As always we need to watch how the forecast evolves as nothing is set in stone ( we were forecast to have sub 70 highs today at the beginning of the week and we're near 80) but at this point it seems the potential for cold is increasing with time.

[northjaxpro]

You are right psyclone. We have indeed been long overdue to have an unseasonably cold winter. Already, the first freeze of the season has occured here at my locale back on November 21 when it dropped to 29.7 degrees. We have had several mornings in the 30s here already. We have had great radiational cooling conditions over the past 10 days. Also, the extremely dry soil is helping to allow the surface temperatures to cool significantly as well. It seems like a desert out there. We need rain desperately that is for certain. Jax just recorded the driest November in 20 years.

[NDG]

At least two runs in a row that the Euro has been trending warmer at least for central & southern FL with the core of the Arctic High staying well north of our area, not a good set up for freezing temps for the I-4 corridor as the GFS showed the last couple of days. The NAO needs to go more negative for that to happen.

[gatorcane]

Latest GFS still with around 40F for the I-4 corridor with 30s to the north still getting into Central Florida. Friday and Saturday nights should feel cold especially Central and North Florida with the wind chills regardless and just how cold it gets won't be known for a few more days.

[NDG]

Even the GFS has been trending warmer for the Peninsula for both Friday & Saturday mornings during the past 8 runs, not saying that is not going to be cold but it has backed away from freezing temps for the I-4 corridor that it was showing two days ago. Quick warm up back to the 70s by next Sunday.

[SouthFloridian92]

Why??? This is so aggravating.We need some meaningful and persistent cold weather.