Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Portastorm]

Next week looks like it will be a McFarland event with a Rio Grande Valley freeze. Interestingly it will be -WPO (Bering Sea ridge)driven unlike most others which are -EPO driven (ridge over GoA and into AK).

With all due respect, what are you basing such a bold statement on? I don't see any McFarland Signature in the ensembles or operational models. And nothing in the GFS is showing a freeze down into the RGV. I do see a very cold full latitude trough which is somewhat progressive but that's it.

[orangeblood]

Next week looks like it will be a McFarland event with a Rio Grande Valley freeze. Interestingly it will be -WPO (Bering Sea ridge)driven unlike most others which are -EPO driven (ridge over GoA and into AK).

With all due respect, what are you basing such a bold statement on? I don't see any McFarland Signature in the ensembles or operational models. And nothing in the GFS is showing a freeze down into the RGV. I do see a very cold full latitude trough which is somewhat progressive but that's it.

Euro has the freeze line awfully close and Canadian could spell trouble for the RGV...06Z GFS appears to be an outlier. Now McFarland signature seems debatable but that Bering Strait Ridge is a force to be reckoned with...until the hole in the Artic sea ice gets filled in over the particular area, that ridge should continue to pop up. Models are going to have trouble on what to do with the extreme cold in Western Canada over next few weeks...

[Ntxw]

My concern is not so much ridging at 500mb but the source of the high pressure...it is coming over from Siberia. JMA had over 1060+ plunging down Rockies yesterday and nearly all guidance is nearly 1060mb up there. It matters where the air is coming from. The fact that 500mb Pacific is not that impressive but yet it's so cold in Alaska and Western Canada is a tribute to origin of the cold air.

And that is a lot of rain this weekend in Texas. Euro definitely beat the much drier GFS several days ago, 6+ inches of rain is nothing to laugh about in Houston and this is not normal for a dry winter month. GFS' progressive bias is showing up in full force.

[Tireman4]

My concern is not so much ridging at 500mb but the source of the high pressure...it is coming over from Siberia. JMA had over 1060+ plunging down Rockies yesterday and nearly all guidance is nearly 1060mb up there. It matters where the air is coming from. The fact that 500mb Pacific is not that impressive but yet it's so cold in Alaska and Western Canada is a tribute to origin of the cold air.

Shades of 1983 sir?

[orangeblood]

My concern is not so much ridging at 500mb but the source of the high pressure...it is coming over from Siberia. JMA had over 1060+ plunging down Rockies yesterday and nearly all guidance is nearly 1060mb up there. It matters where the air is coming from. The fact that 500mb Pacific is not that impressive but yet it's so cold in Alaska and Western Canada is a tribute to origin of the cold air.

Yes, will be fascinating to follow how the models handle the pace of the Arctic front, might have big impacts on where the baroclinic zone sets up. A couple of the Euro Ensemble members has one heck of a winter storm crossing the state Wed/Thursday, they are modeling the front coming in much quicker than the others

[Ntxw]

My concern is not so much ridging at 500mb but the source of the high pressure...it is coming over from Siberia. JMA had over 1060+ plunging down Rockies yesterday and nearly all guidance is nearly 1060mb up there. It matters where the air is coming from. The fact that 500mb Pacific is not that impressive but yet it's so cold in Alaska and Western Canada is a tribute to origin of the cold air.

Shades of 1983 sir?

Kind of but on a lesser scale. This first blast is very much something we have not seen since 2014, 2013 even (nuri was a big blast but it was much earlier in the season so the cold air pool is nothing like this one). What happens with the Aleutian ridge and if it will continue to make it's way into Alaska is how you get a 1983 but that's an extreme anomaly.

[weatherdude1108]

This is an impressive QPF for this time of year, or any time of year! Exactly what our cohorts need in the drought-plagued southeast.

[srainhoutx]

December 1989 is showing up via the morning Updated GEFS Super Ensembles in the Day 11+ range...

[Ntxw]

December 1989 is showing up via the morning Updated GEFS Super Ensembles in the Day 11+ range...

1964, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1989 is showing up all over the place on the supersembles by the CPC! bottom line is this pattern produces cold and it's going to get pretty cold. TBD is how cold

It just loves to get cold in December in weak Nina/cold neutral...it wasn't that long ago it was in 2013.

[Ralph's Weather]

Next week looks like it will be a McFarland event with a Rio Grande Valley freeze. Interestingly it will be -WPO (Bering Sea ridge)driven unlike most others which are -EPO driven (ridge over GoA and into AK).

With all due respect, what are you basing such a bold statement on? I don't see any McFarland Signature in the ensembles or operational models. And nothing in the GFS is showing a freeze down into the RGV. I do see a very cold full latitude trough which is somewhat progressive but that's it.

It does not have the look of a classic McFarland but a 1040+mb Arctic high over Texas with a snow pack to the north and a very cold western Canada will likely bring a freeze to nearly all of Texas. Now whether it quite reaches freezing in somewhere like Brownsville is a bit uncertain, but I am pretty confident that just about everyone will see a freeze.

[HockeyTx82]

Looking back at my timesheet here at work we were shut down 12/5 - 12/11, Thursday. - Wednesday for inclement weather in 2013. Fun times. That was a short month with the Christmas holiday break on the tail end.

A full seven days of ice and snow to keep us shut down. That had some staying power. Can anyone pull up the model runs and compare aside from analogs?

[Ntxw]

Looking back at my timesheet here at work we were shut down 12/5 - 12/11, Thursday. - Wednesday for inclement weather in 2013. Fun times. That was a short month with the Christmas holiday break on the tail end.

A full seven days of ice and snow to keep us shut down down. That had some staying power. Can anyone pull up the model runs and compare aside from analogs?

It's difficult to pull up model runs given they run so many times a day and it's been so many days since. The amount of data to store something like that is insane given just 1 run is millions and billions of mathematic calculations. Pulling up surface analysis of what actually happened is easier. This is the importance of posting model runs in threads like these and saving them. We can go back and look at specific events we all posted.

[Snowman67]

This snippet from the Hou/Galv morning discussion is cause for concern in SE Texas this weekend.

Working through flash flood worksheet yields a very high flash
flood threat across the region this weekend. Rainfall
Saturday/Saturday night will likely see totals of 1-2" with
isolated 6-9" amounts...Sunday more widespread rainfall of 1-3"
and isolated amounts of 8-11

[Portastorm]

Next week looks like it will be a McFarland event with a Rio Grande Valley freeze. Interestingly it will be -WPO (Bering Sea ridge)driven unlike most others which are -EPO driven (ridge over GoA and into AK).

With all due respect, what are you basing such a bold statement on? I don't see any McFarland Signature in the ensembles or operational models. And nothing in the GFS is showing a freeze down into the RGV. I do see a very cold full latitude trough which is somewhat progressive but that's it.

It does not have the look of a classic McFarland but a 1040+mb Arctic high over Texas with a snow pack to the north and a very cold western Canada will likely bring a freeze to nearly all of Texas. Now whether it quite reaches freezing in somewhere like Brownsville is a bit uncertain, but I am pretty confident that just about everyone will see a freeze.

It's all good ... I just wanted to make certain I wasn't missing something. Anytime any of us talk about a freeze in the Valley ... well, that's a big deal, ya know?!

I think the northern half of Texas is almost certain to have several freezes next week. At this point I'm not confident that extends below the I-10 line. Maybe Lucy has pulled the football away from me too many times over the years. LOL.

[Ralph's Weather]

It's all good ... I just wanted to make certain I wasn't missing something. Anytime any of us talk about a freeze in the Valley ... well, that's a big deal, ya know?!

I think the northern half of Texas is almost certain to have several freezes next week. At this point I'm not confident that extends below the I-10 line. Maybe Lucy has pulled the football away from me too many times over the years. LOL.

It's great to be in this community of weather lovers who can have healthy discussions on future events. I don't blame y'all down in Central and South Texas for being skeptical, but this appears to be the real deal. As NTWX has mentioned this cold is Siberian in nature, and an anomalously cold Siberian Siberian air mass at that.

[Rgv20]

Getting a Freeze in Brownsville is pretty hard to do....Now for the Upper Valley especially RGC where I live is a bit easier. It will be fun watching future model runs unfold on this upcoming event.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Brownsville is the back corner of your 1930s house by the furnace

[vbhoutex]

December 1989 is showing up via the morning Updated GEFS Super Ensembles in the Day 11+ range...

NNNNOOOOO!!!!!!! Please tell me you are this board!!!

I am becoming concerned that this is indeed a REAL BLUE NORTHER for ALL OF TEXAS!! As most of us in TX know models notoriously underestimate these types of outbreaks as they come South. If it is freezing in the valley we usually are to in SE TX. We had 2 "freezes" last Winter with the lowest temp at my house of 29.4f iirc. We shall see.

[Ralph's Weather]

The GFS is either throw away worthy right now or will have one of its biggest wins as it is much more progressive with next weeks storm than any other model I have seen.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Yep... we stay cool for a while, but not very cold. Highs in the 40s, lows in the 30s starting on Thursday.