Texas Winter 2016-2017

[starsfan65]

Can someone explain why recent model runs are showing the heart of the cold heading east with a -PNA? Will the SE ridge really break down that much?

What do you mean? It's two paths as typically it usually does. One chunk slides down the slopes of the Rockies with high pressure into Mexico while another chunk coils into cyclogenesis ahead of it. It's your typical outbreak for central and eastern north america. Sometimes cyclogenesis to the northeast is so strong it will tug the air mass to the east for a glancing blow but if the HP influence is stronger it's going due south mostly.

Speaking of Rockies slopes. It always fascinates me how cold, dense air travels and trajectory of cold high domes. Models long range always wants to dig them down into the peaks of the Rockies but nearly every time they go around and ooze down the eastern slopes of the great wall that is the Rocky mts. Path of least resistance.

I see the cold air heading south.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, 1046 mb Arctic High poised to drop down next weekend (Dec 8-11) to the Plains. Arctic Air pouring down the Lee of the Rockies right into the heart of the CONUS.

I mentioned in the Deep South thread that models long range are hinting at an even stronger arctic air mass dropping out of Canada the week after next.

[JayDT]

Can someone explain why recent model runs are showing the heart of the cold heading east with a -PNA? Will the SE ridge really break down that much?

What do you mean? It's two paths as typically it usually does. One chunk slides down the slopes of the Rockies with high pressure into Mexico while another chunk coils into cyclogenesis ahead of it. It's your typical outbreak for central and eastern north america. Sometimes cyclogenesis to the northeast is so strong it will tug the air mass to the east for a glancing blow but if the HP influence is stronger it's going due south mostly.

Speaking of Rockies slopes. It always fascinates me how cold, dense air travels and trajectory of cold high domes. Models long range always wants to dig them down into the peaks of the Rockies but nearly every time they go around and ooze down the eastern slopes of the great wall that is the Rocky mts. Path of least resistance.

I don't know if i'm seeing that map correctly, but it all seems to be headed straight down to Texas.

[srainhoutx]

Watch carefully in the longer range around the 18th/19, +/- a day or so. The GFS is suggesting another digging upper low into the Great Basin toward Arizona. To its credit, the GFS has done rather well 'sniffing out' potential threats in the longer range. Case in point this weekend was 'sniffed out' rather well about two weeks ago. I would also caution those looking at the strength of those Arctic Highs. The models tend to under estimate them even into the medium range.

The secondary Arctic boundary on the 12th/13th may be a tad colder than currently modeled...

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Im always fascinated how that works as well. In the near future, i want to move to Denver, found a community thats about 2k ft higher than Denver itself, i wonder if they feel those arctic blasts! Lol (I think they do)

[Tireman4]

Watch carefully in the longer range around the 18th/19, +/- a day or so. The GFS is suggesting another digging upper low into the Great Basin toward Arizona. To its credit, the GFS has done rather well 'sniffing out' potential threats in the longer range. Case in point this weekend was 'sniffed out' rather well about two weeks ago. I would also caution those looking at the strength of those Arctic Highs. The models tend to under estimate them even into the medium range.

The secondary Arctic boundary on the 12th/13th may be a tad colder than currently modeled...

Always sage forecasting from a seasoned pro. As you say..stepping down!

[northjaxpro]

I would also caution those looking at the strength of those Arctic Highs. The models tend to under estimate them even into the medium range.

The secondary Arctic boundary on the 12th/13th may be a tad colder than currently modeled...

Good point made. Also, we should see a bit better snowpack across the Central Plains into the Midwest over the next 10 days or so which should help to keep these Arctic Highs from modifying significantly as well.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Euro upper air pattern leaning towards the GFS now. That High eas of Hawaii needs to GO

[Ntxw]

Euro upper air pattern leaning towards the GFS now. That High eas of Hawaii needs to GO

Its still low to mid 20s for the I-20 corridor and highs in the mid to upper 30s. It also has a streak of light precip from w texas that fades as it approaches I-35 corridor

[Ralph's Weather]

Most of the surface cold will come pretty much straight south. Some runs off some models have pulled the heart of the trough all the way into Florida. The latter part is what has surprised me, I expected the SE ridge to hold a while longer.
It seems like the best winter weather threat is with the next front as the cold will already be established. Though some precip could lag behind in the cold air this week.

[srainhoutx]

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue · 1m1 minute ago
Looking past this Arctic blast ... ECMWF 12z reloads for another one. Cold begets cold. Snow cover + calendar makes it easier

[Ntxw]

Yeah, the ENS continue NPAC ridging throughout it's run. It's going to be a wildly different December than the past few. We're seeing one of those few and far inbetween Rex blocks around and near Alaska, it will just continue sending arctic front after arctic front. You can make a case it's a toned down version of 1983. That's the big difference between this year and say another weak Nina 2011-2012. We had an Aleutian ridge then too but it kept retrograding and tilted towards Russia, Alaska got very cold but it never came down. This ridge tilts more towards Alaska thus dumping it southward. It will be interesting if we can make it the coldest December since 2009.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/stormchasernick/status/804796461569507328

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Yeah, the ENS continue NPAC ridging throughout it's run. It's going to be a wildly different December than the past few. We're seeing one of those few and far inbetween Rex blocks around and near Alaska, it will just continue sending arctic front after arctic front. You can make a case it's a toned down version of 1983. That's the big difference between this year and say another weak Nina 2011-2012. We had an Aleutian ridge then too but it kept retrograding and tilted towards Russia, Alaska got very cold but it never came down. This ridge tilts more towards Alaska thus dumping it southward. It will be interesting if we can make it the coldest December since 2009.

I'm not so sure it will be toned down if it lasts thru Christmas

[weatherdude1108]

I've gotten over an inch of rain already today, still raining. 51 degrees. Hot chocolate, chili, fireplace kind of weather today.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I've gotten over an inch of rain already today, still raining. 51 degrees. Hot chocolate, chili, fireplace kind of weather today.

Same here... watching college football and half a bottle of Bourbon in

[srainhoutx]

Classic cross Polar flow via the longer range ECMWF EPS Northern Hemisphere 500mb charts.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Classic cross Polar flow via the longer range ECMWF EPS Northern Hemisphere 500mb charts.

Oh rearry....

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Classic cross Polar flow via the longer range ECMWF EPS Northern Hemisphere 500mb charts.

White Christmas comin

[lrak]

Is the next arctic outbreak going to affect CC TX? I have some citrus trees that haven't encountered really cold weather. My Tangerine tree is my friend, any advice should I half to protect it, or am I domed? May an outside clay fireplace a few feet away from it maybe save it from freezing >

Also no surfing for a while, bummer I may have to break out the 5mm cold water suit, bootys, hoood, and gloves....

I'm close to wxman57 views about cold but only to a point. Prayers for him and his family.