Southern India - Vardah - Tropical Depression

[wyq614]

Initiated at 3.0N, 103.6E

So here comes the brutal BOB cyclone-to-be.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Looks likely big threat flooding potential down the road 3.2 pw, atm gfs landfalling @70kts/10min

[euro6208]

GFS has a monster 920's mb storm landfall...

[gatorcane]

Looks like the GFS gets this down to 915MB on the 18Z run

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

EC run looking a better outcome for for India atm, still way early we don't even have a TD yet. GFS always over hypes mb usually, taking no notice myself.

[1900hurricane]

Guidance has been alluding to this one for going on a week now. I'd say chances are good that we could end up seeing an significant cyclone.

[mrbagyo]

Are those thin brownish particles (east of Sri Lanka) coming from India dust?

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

:uarrow:

Are those thin brownish particles (east of Sri Lanka) coming from India dust?

Nasa dust model
http://weather.graphics/nasa/nasa_global_00.php



Bom's model not overly excited atm.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

latest runs on the EC/GFS mid 980's mb land-falling by both models, a v/strong cyclone lets hope those runs hold serve .And not a destructive catastrophic 940mb monster, some of the wpac crew wanna see.

[TheAustinMan]

latest runs on the EC/GFS mid 980's mb land-falling by both models, a v/strong cyclone lets hope those runs hold serve .And not a destructive catastrophic 940mb monster, some of the wpac crew wanna see.

The GFS has 936mb immediately antecedent to landfall (after weakening from 922 mb).

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

latest runs on the EC/GFS mid 980's mb land-falling by both models, a v/strong cyclone lets hope those runs hold serve .And not a destructive catastrophic 940mb monster, some of the wpac crew wanna see.

The GFS has 936mb immediately antecedent to landfall (after weakening from 922 mb).

looking at models at the time of posting is what i seen.

[gatorcane]

huge moisture envelope with broad cyclonic rotation, saved loop:

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Putting aside intensity looks a v/large monsoonal low,.

[Alyono]

have to use surface pressure to see MU intensity, not MSLP

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

GFS 985 mslp is the equivalent of 90kts 10/min, same as 940 mb surface chart? <940 MSLP is a catastrophic cane in the H Andrew bracket.
Where the confusion LIES. You guys know best leaves to you.

[Alyono]

GFS 985 mslp is the equivalent of 90kts 10/min, same as 940 mb surface chart? <940 MSLP is a catastrophic cane in the H Andrew bracket.
Where the confusion LIES. You guys know best leaves to you.

Yeah. The mu plots with mslp have the actual wind but only surface pressure shows the actual pressure

[wxman57]

IMD upgraded it to a depression:

http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/cyclone_pdfs/indian_1481044569.pdf

[1900hurricane]

Good call, it certainly looks like one.

[Hurricanehink]

TCFA from JTWC.

ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 061152Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW
CONVECTION FLARING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF AN INCREASINGLY DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH BANDING STEADILY BECOMING
CLEARER AND MORE ORGANIZED ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS IN THE AREA ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE (15-20
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), OFFSET BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Appears tilted to the south and mostly all surface and mid-level,upper not appearing well establish atm.






Access has a cyclone developing not strong then weakens it out.