Texas Winter 2016-2017

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Brent
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#561 Postby Brent » Tue Dec 06, 2016 1:58 am

Euro has a front next Wednesday Night(about when the GFS has had it when it had it)... it's not as extreme down here DFW is near 70 next Wednesday afternoon then highs in the 40s next Thursday(OKC struggles to reach freezing so the colder freezing air is nearby)

Before that... 50s Saturday with temps rising Saturday Night, possibly 70s Sunday, then back to 50s next Monday/Tuesday...

GFS is cooler this weekend with only upper 40s Saturday and 50s Sunday, the front is earlier and Monday morning is near freezing.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#562 Postby xironman » Tue Dec 06, 2016 5:15 am

TheProfessor wrote:
Colder temps don't occur on the run till around the 14th or 15th, hours 240 and 252. I fly out on the evening of the 15th. This only goes out 192 hours so it missed what I was talking about. 12z GFS had a temp of 2 degrees at 12z(7AM my time) I'll be up by then as I'll ironically have my Atmo final to take that morning. Temps on Campus can also fall around a degree less than it does at the Downtown. The Airport(KCMH) is East of downtown and in this case the temperatures on the 12z GFS slightly warms as you get further east. Anyways 1-2 Fahrenheit would near zero in my diction. Of course it could end up 40 degrees as 240 hours is still very far out(Although signs are points of there at least being some kind of arctic outbreak).


Got it. Once beyond 180 I basically only look at the ensembles with the GFS as it is a train wreck at that range.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#563 Postby gpsnowman » Tue Dec 06, 2016 7:04 am

Heavy mist with some fog rolling in near the airport currently.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#564 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Tue Dec 06, 2016 7:08 am

Our forecasted high for Thursday has rose substantially, along with the low Thursday night. Also, Friday and Friday night. Is the front not coming through as strong as originally expected?
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#565 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Dec 06, 2016 9:09 am

Image

Image

So from 30's and 40's Thursday & Friday to 63 and warm Sunday. However I think the Arctic front will actually arrive sooner than forecast, it's already 7 in Denver and leading edge of the cold air will hit the OK Panhandle by this evening. I'm thinking Midday for the front tomorrow which will be about 4-5 hours earlier than expected.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#566 Postby dhweather » Tue Dec 06, 2016 9:10 am

I know this warms the cockles of wxman57's heart. I won't be mean and show him 24 hours later. :lol:

Quite a flip on the 0Z GFS for next week, we'll see what 12Z has to say here soon.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#567 Postby dhweather » Tue Dec 06, 2016 9:13 am

CaptinCrunch wrote:
So from 30's and 40's Thursday & Friday to 63 and warm Sunday. However I think the Arctic front will actually arrive sooner than forecast, it's already 7 in Denver and leading edge of the cold air will hit the OK Panhandle by this evening. I'm thinking Midday for the front tomorrow which will be about 4-5 hours earlier than expected.



And this is where the saying "If you don't like the weather in Texas, wait a day or two, it will change" comes from. Unfortunately that does not apply often from June-October. But we are in the season for changes in the weather, so enjoy it :D
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#568 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Dec 06, 2016 9:28 am

dhweather wrote:
CaptinCrunch wrote:
So from 30's and 40's Thursday & Friday to 63 and warm Sunday. However I think the Arctic front will actually arrive sooner than forecast, it's already 7 in Denver and leading edge of the cold air will hit the OK Panhandle by this evening. I'm thinking Midday for the front tomorrow which will be about 4-5 hours earlier than expected.



And this is where the saying "If you don't like the weather in Texas, wait a day or two, it will change" comes from. Unfortunately that does not apply often from June-October. But we are in the season for changes in the weather, so enjoy it :D


Oh, trust me, I want the cold and would love it if we could pull 1977 out of the hat. :froze:

I'm tired of the above average warm months 10 out of 11 and 6 of those 10 were records...give my snow and ice....lol :ggreen:
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#569 Postby Ntxw » Tue Dec 06, 2016 9:32 am

dhweather wrote:
CaptinCrunch wrote:
So from 30's and 40's Thursday & Friday to 63 and warm Sunday. However I think the Arctic front will actually arrive sooner than forecast, it's already 7 in Denver and leading edge of the cold air will hit the OK Panhandle by this evening. I'm thinking Midday for the front tomorrow which will be about 4-5 hours earlier than expected.



And this is where the saying "If you don't like the weather in Texas, wait a day or two, it will change" comes from. Unfortunately that does not apply often from June-October. But we are in the season for changes in the weather, so enjoy it :D


This is true with model runs too! Wait about 6 hours :roll:

There is actually a weaker front coming through now across NTX that should make it south today. Most guidance retreat it back north as a warm front tonight
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#570 Postby Portastorm » Tue Dec 06, 2016 9:49 am

We may have to really enjoy our brief Arctic airmass later this week. Beyond seven days, both the EPS and GEFS build that southwestern ridge over us which is not a good thing if you want/like anomalously cold weather in Texas. When you've got both major ensembles showing that consistently ... you've got take pause.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#571 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Tue Dec 06, 2016 9:51 am

6z GFS starting to act more normal.

Warms up Sunday, another cold front Monday, warms up Wednesday, another cold front late next week, warm up 17th thru early 19th then another cold front thru the 22nd.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#572 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Dec 06, 2016 9:57 am

Starting to look like this week's cold front will be a run of the mill type event for my area and Texas. A few days ago the Euro was showing mid 20's for the I-10 corridor and now does not even indicate a freeze (mid 30's). Looks like any arctic air over the next 2 weeks will have a tough time reaching the gulf coast, doesn't matter if it's 50 below normal at the Canadian border if the pattern is showing a Southeastern ridge :roll: . At this point, I just hope Christmas isn't 75 degrees.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#573 Postby Ntxw » Tue Dec 06, 2016 10:00 am

Portastorm wrote:We may have to really enjoy our brief Arctic airmass later this week. Beyond seven days, both the EPS and GEFS build that southwestern ridge over us which is not a good thing if you want/like anomalously cold weather in Texas. When you've got both major ensembles showing that consistently ... you've got take pause.


Image

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#574 Postby Portastorm » Tue Dec 06, 2016 10:14 am

:uarrow:

Thanks Ntxw for posting the images I was too lazy to post! :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#575 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Dec 06, 2016 10:35 am

Portastorm wrote::uarrow:

Thanks Ntxw for posting the images I was too lazy to post! :lol:


I needed to mow the backyard anyway :hmm: :onfire:
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#576 Postby Ntxw » Tue Dec 06, 2016 10:41 am

No problem Porta! :wink:. There are risks in this pattern but it has worked before and allowed low level cold to come. Lets all be patient and let it play itself out. It sure beats having a warm Canada. Cause then we have no chance. It isnt that warm now, so just enjoy it :D

If the EPO wants it to be cold, it will find a way
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#577 Postby Brent » Tue Dec 06, 2016 10:46 am

I swear if it's warm on Christmas again I'm going to lose it :blowup:
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#578 Postby texas1836 » Tue Dec 06, 2016 10:57 am

Brent wrote:I swear if it's warm on Christmas again I'm going to lose it :blowup:


I plan on being in Ruidoso New Mexico the last 2 weeks of December, so hopefully I'll have better luck.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#579 Postby gboudx » Tue Dec 06, 2016 11:12 am

All this warmth starts to show up right after wxman57 chimes in. Coincidence? Nope. I warned about poking the bike riding bear. He concocted up some Cajun gris-gris on us. But I can try and counter it by using my Cajun powers. First I'll make a roux.......
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#580 Postby Ralph's Weather » Tue Dec 06, 2016 11:35 am

Models are looking very interesting for snow tomorrow night. The mid levels are trending moister. If you assume the surface cools faster than models then that should further increase snow chances. It looks more like flurries than anything but still better than last winter.
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