Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Brent]

Euro only has 30 at DFW and the GFS 29 and the official forecast is 20 with all the local stations in the low 20s at least. Are we headed for a big bust up here too?

[gatorcane]

Euro only has 30 at DFW and the GFS 29 and the official forecast is 20 with all the local stations in the low 20s at least. Are we headed for a big bust up here too?

I have watched the models slowly back-off on the cold for Florida every day each run the past several days also and same seems to be happening for you folks in Texas. Were showing mid 30s into Central Florida, now mid-40s...

Even the mighty King Euro is showing nowhere close to the amplified trough it once showed sweeping CONUS last week for this week...

Could be a bust we'll see.

[Ntxw]

Wasn't today supposed to be warm? I felt nippy again at lunch temperature inversion with a north wind

[weatherdude1108]

Don't the models usually go gang-busters with cold in the long-range, back off the cold in the short-to-medium range, then go back to cold again within days of the event? I thought there was a discussion of this in previous threads. Not sure.

Interesting how suddenly models back off on a cold, dense air mass, of Siberian/Canadian origins, which has to move somewhere based on the laws of physics. Question is what data variables are causing the models to suddenly back off on the intensity and direction of the Arctic/Canadian air? It's like they're constantly readjusting themselves as the new data sets come in, until the day of the event when they lock onto a probable scenario.

Accuracy of the forecast models with these cold, dense air masses doesn't seem to be as in tune as the forecast models are with warm air death ridges, at least in Texas. But heat ridges in Texas can be forecasted with 100% accuracy. It makes forecasting these Arctic blasts interesting. It is chilly and cloudy here today!

[Ralph's Weather]

The NAM and other shorter range, higher res models sure are increasing the simulated radar returns behind the front though surface temps are pretty borderline as always as well as moisture is pretty limited around 700mb.

[Portastorm]

The NAM and other shorter range, higher res models sure are increasing the moisture behind the front though surface temps are pretty borderline as always.

And therein lies the culprit ... I believe. Visited earlier this afternoon with my buddy Bob Rose and he pointed out that at least in Austin's case, the models are now showing much more cloud cover than initially expected and, consequently, less ideal conditions for optimal radiational cooling.

[Ralph's Weather]

The NAM and other shorter range, higher res models sure are increasing the moisture behind the front though surface temps are pretty borderline as always.

And therein lies the culprit ... I believe. Visited earlier this afternoon with my buddy Bob Rose and he pointed out that at least in Austin's case, the models are now showing much more cloud cover than initially expected and, consequently, less ideal conditions for optimal radiational cooling.

Yep, and by Friday morning the surface high may end up too far NE of y'all. Further north mid and low 20s are still likely though unless we get a snow cover not sure about teens much south of the Red River.

[weatherdude1108]

The NAM and other shorter range, higher res models sure are increasing the moisture behind the front though surface temps are pretty borderline as always.

And therein lies the culprit ... I believe. Visited earlier this afternoon with my buddy Bob Rose and he pointed out that at least in Austin's case, the models are now showing much more cloud cover than initially expected and, consequently, less ideal conditions for optimal radiational cooling.

You know Bob Rose?? That's cool! Local celebrity. The weather world is a small world.

[Portastorm]

It's funny you say that because people come up to Bob all the time and say "You know Portastorm?! ... oh my gosh ... he's famous."



All kidding aside, I have been friends with Bob for many years ... since his KVUE days, long before LCRA. He's a great forecaster and a great guy.

[Ntxw]

Cloud cover would definitely mean warmer lows. But thats a different reason than its not that cold an airmass

[South Texas Storms]

:uarrow:

It's funny you say that because people come up to Bob all the time and say "You know Portastorm?! ... oh my gosh ... he's famous."



All kidding aside, I have been friends with Bob for many years ... since his KVUE days, long before LCRA. He's a great forecaster and a great guy.

I concur. I met Bob a few years ago when I lived in Austin and he is a great guy and forecaster.

The afternoon AFDs continue to go much colder than the guidance for lows Friday morning.

EWX and HGX are forecasting freezes at SAT, AUS, and IAH.

[Portastorm]

Cloud cover would definitely mean warmer lows. But thats a different reason than its not that cold an airmass

Exactly. The one thing the models have not budged on is the strength of the high pressure coming out of Canada which is why the temp thing had me so perplexed. I never considered cloud cover because this front looked like it would scour out the atmosphere. Now there's talk of a light wintry precip threat for parts of Texas on Thursday. It wouldn't surprise me to see the models drop those lows though by late tomorrow as it starts to model air coming out of Canada.

[gpsnowman]

It could also mean lower highs. Either way it is going be cold for a couple days. Maybe even squeeze out a few flurries?

[Ralph's Weather]

It could also mean lower highs. Either way it is going be cold for a couple days. Maybe even squeeze out a few flurries?

I bet some areas will stay at or below freezing with flurries around on Thursday. Although amounts look very light flurries are possible for a large portion of the state with the best chance for accumulation accumulations likely in the San Angelo and Abilene general area.

[JayDT]

The NWS is going with a high of 33 here on Thursday.

[weatherdude1108]

EWX alludes to "temperatures cold enough in the cloud layer to support ice crystal
growth across the far northern CWA Thursday morning."

284
FXUS64 KEWX 062117
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
317 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
The cold front has moved south of the CWA. Moisture trapped
beneath the shallow frontal inversion is producing an overcast
stratus deck that will continue slowly south across mainly eastern
areas. Models have back off on precip chances on Wednesday across
eastern areas and removed mention from the forecast. The strong
cold front is still on track to enter northern areas after
midnight Wednesday night and clear southern areas before daybreak
Thursday. A slight chance of showers will be possible across
southern areas along and just behind the front Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Strong pressure rises and cold air advection on Thursday will
keep conditions cold, with highs on Thursday not making it out of
the 40s and wind chill values many degrees colder. Windy
conditions with gusts over 30 mph likely in some areas, bordering
on wind advisory conditions.

The ECMWF and GFS continue to show some light QPF across West-
Central Texas early Thursday associated with some ascent in the
right rear quadrant of an upper level jet streak, along with a mid
level moisture pool. Both models indicate the possibility of some
of this moisture working into portions of Central Texas and far
northern areas of the Hill Country. Forecast soundings suggest
temperatures cold enough in the cloud layer to support ice crystal
growth across the far northern CWA Thursday morning. A slight
chance of light rain/snow mix was introduced across far northern
areas of the CWA Thursday morning. There is still some uncertainty
with the thermal profile, potential wet-bulbing, and dry layer in
the sub cloud layer. If any light snow were to mix in impacts
would be none to very minimal across the EWX CWA given ground and
near surface temps.

A freeze is expected across the Hill Country Thursday night and
likely along portions of the I-35 corridor from New Braunfels to
Georgetown. There is a good potential some areas farther south and
east of these locations, as well as the Rio Grande, could also
experience a freeze, however this may depend on how quickly winds
come down Thursday night. Continued cold temperatures on Friday,
but much less wind and sunny skies should make it feel warmer
compared to Thursday.

A return flow will set-up over the weekend with gradually
modifying temperatures. Some slight chances for showers across the
eastern counties. Models still indicating another front on Sunday.

[Brent]

FWD mentioning snow south of DFW


For late Wednesday into Thursday---Broad troughing should be
enough to assist any weak frontogenetical forcing to produce some
very light precipitation late Wednesday into Thursday. Both GFS
and ECMWF models output a fair amount of QPF just south of the
I-20 corridor and down through Central TX. While there is good
agreement in both of these models, the overall forcing appears
pretty subtle and as a result, I`ll trend on the lower side for my
PoP/QPF. If forcing becomes stronger/more apparent---it`s
possible that PoP/QPF will need to be adjusted in magnitude and
space. P-type forecast is difficult due to the uncertainty
revolving around the amount of lift juxtaposed with the best
moisture and cold air. As mentioned above, most NWP appears to be
too warm with regards to their hourly temperature output. In
addition, it`s likely that if precipitation is falling, more cooling
of the lower troposphere will likely continue. After closely
examining model soundings and discussion with surrounding offices,
I`ve added some wintry precipitation, mainly along and southwest
of an area bounded by an Eastland to Waxahachie to Waco to
Temple/Killeen line. Initial precipitation in the wake of the
front will start out as light rain/drizzle before transitioning to
light freezing/rain/drizzle. As the depth of the colder air
increases and secondary ice processes (seeder-feeder) begin to
dominate, a transition to light snow will be possible for the
aformentioned areas.

With regards to wintry precipitation impacts---they are expected
to be LOW and should NOT be widespread. Soil temperature
observations here at NWS Fort Worth indicate that ground
temperatures are still in the mid to upper 50s (and this is likely
representative for areas further south and west). Wind speeds will
also be strong around 20 to 22 knots (and possible near Wind
Advisory criteria) and this should help to quickly whisk away any
residual water on road surfaces. However, trace amounts of ice
and/or snow will be possible, mainly on elevated surfaces as
temperatures will fall into the mid 20s for a few hours. These
strong winds will also result in wind chills in the teens and
twenties as well on Thursday morning! Again, impacts due to
wintry precipitation are expected to be LOW and at this time, it
does not appear that this warrants a Winter Weather Advisory.
Nevertheless, we will continue to monitor trends in temperature
and PoP/QPF as there has been a slow trend of greater
precipitation chances further towards the north near the I-20
corridor.

[Ntxw]

Even the 18z gfs sees some light mix in parts of central Tx

[JayDT]

Well i really hope it does keep trending further north!

[TexasF6]

I met Bob Rose when I was a kid. He was Mark Murray' s Young Gun Meteorologist @kvue. Austin had the best local weather in the Nation, Mark Murray, Connor Vernon, Troy Kimmel, Gordon Smith, Jim Spencer, Steve Rambo --all in the 1980s & 1990s! ! ! Not to mention the Lou Withrow days of Skywarn. We had it so soooo goood. Just my humble opinion. But bring on the cold, modeling and cold air never agree wholeheartedly!