Southern India - Vardah - Tropical Depression

[euro6208]

EURO just like GFS has this peaking before landfall then it weakens on approach to the coast.

974mb to 990mb.

955mb to 967mb.

EURO is more southerly though.

[wxman57]

Overnight ASCAT had a single 35kt wind ESE of the center. The ASCAT pass only caught the eastern half of the storm, though.

[TheEuropean]

NRL now with 35 kt and 996 mb:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... 90W.INVEST

I think Vardah should be the next name on the list.

[wxman57]

The IMD (official RSMC) is still calling it a depression (<27 kts), not even a "deep depression" (>27 kts). Their Dvorak is 1.5, everyone else is 2.5. They tend to be slow in upgrading systems, and their intensity estimates are also generally lower than other agencies.

[wxman57]

I see JTWC is calling it a cyclone with 35kt winds. However, convection near the center has weakened/dissipated. It may have weakened back to a depression.

[wxman57]

ASCAT indicated at least one 35kt (unflagged) barb east of the center. Convection is on the increase (finally) around the center. IMD is off by about 100 miles as far as the position, according to that ASCAT pass.

[Exalt]

Can anyone say convection flare-up? Wow, talk about rapid intensification.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Its not looking so tilted to the south now 'better stacked', lined up much better than the previous 12 hrs. Structure is also looking good. Tend to think the Siberian ridge will as models indicate weaken the storm before landfall.

[1900hurricane]

The system has some decent curved banding, but it still has a ways to go in terms of core building.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Code: Select all

REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY BULLETIN
FROM: RSMC –TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TO: STORM WARNING CENTRE, NAYPYI TAW (MYANMAR)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, BANGKOK (THAILAND)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, COLOMBO (SRILANKA)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, DHAKA (BANGLADESH)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, KARACHI (PAKISTAN)
METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE, MALE (MALDIVES)
OMAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT, MUSCAT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
YEMEN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES, REPUBLIC OF YEMEN (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
RSMC – TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TROPICAL STORM ‘VARDAH’ ADVISORY NUMBER two ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 08TH DECEMBER
2016 BASED ON 0300 UTC CHARTS OF 08TH DECEMBER 2016
THE CYCLONIC STORM, VARDAH OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED FURTHER
NORTHWARDS DURING PAST 06 HOURS WITH A SPEED OF 9 KMPH AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300
UTC OF TODAY, THE 8TH DECEMBER, 2016 OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE
11.5ºN AND LONGITUDE 90.5ºE, ABOUT 1040 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM(43149),
1135 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MACHILIPATNAM(43185), 360 KM NORTHWEST OF CAR
NICOBAR(43368) AND 240 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORT BLAIR(43333). THE SYSTEM IS VERY
LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 24 HOURS.
IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NEARLY NORTHWARDS FOR SOME MORE TIME, THEN
NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS ANDHRA PRADESH COAST BETWEEN NELLORE(43245) AND
KAKINADA(43189) AROUND FORENOON/ NOON OF 12TH DECEMBER 2016

REMARKS
THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) IS AROUND 28-29˚C. THE SST DECREASES
TOWARDS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL BECOMING 26-270C NEAR
NORTH ANDHRA PRADESH AND ODISHA COASTS. THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS ABOUT 70-80
KJ/CM2 OVER THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY DECREASES TOWARDS NORTHWEST, BECOMING
LESS THAN 50 KJ/CM2 NEAR, ODISHA AND ANDHRA PRADESH COASTS EXCEPT OVER A SMALL
POCKET OF WESTCENTRAL BAY OFF CENTRAL ANDHRA PRADESH COAST WHERE IT IS 60-70
KJ/CM2
. THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS ABOUT 40X10-5 SECOND-1
TO THE EASTNORTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE, THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS AROUND 40X10-5 SECOND-1 TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY IS ABOUT 150X10-6 SECOND-1
TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL
WIND IS MODERATE TO HIGH (15-25 KNOTS) AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE AND INCREASES
TOWARDS NORTHWEST AND WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL. THE MADDEN JULIAN
OSCILLATION INDEX LIES IN PHASE 2 WITH AMPLITUDE 1. IT WILL MOVE TO PHASE 3 DURING
NEXT 3 DAYS WITH AMPLITUDE 1. CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS, THESE
ARE FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AND ITS NORTHWESTWARD
MOVEMENT TOWARDS ANDHRA PRADESH COAST. HOWEVER, HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND LOWER SST AND OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY NEAR ANDHRA PRADESH COAST ARE
UNFAVOURABLE FACTORS WHICH MAY LEAD TO WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM TO SOME
EXTENT BEFORE LANDFALL.
CONSIDERING ALL THE ABOVE, THE CYCLONIC STORM, ‘VARDAH’ WILL INTENSIFY FURTHER
AND MOVE INTIALLY NORTHWARDS AND THEN NORTHWESTWARDS DURING NEXT 3 DAYS.
THERE IS POSSIBILITY OF GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER ALONGWITH THE CONTINUED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS MOVEMENT TOWARDS ANDHRA PRADESH COAST.

.

[euro6208]

What does IMD use, 1 min or 10 min winds?

[1900hurricane]

IMD technically uses 3 minute sustained winds, but the Dvorak scale they use closely matches the NHC/CPHC/JTWC scale that uses 1 minute sustained winds.

[TheEuropean]

Impressive CDO now:

https://kachelmannwetter.com/de/sat/a7b ... 1530z.html
(press play for loop)

Outflow to the south and southeast seems to get better.

I think it is getting stronger.

[1900hurricane]

Looks somewhat like a CCC pattern to me. It may be becoming a little stronger, but it doesn't look like it wants to rapidly intensify.

[StormChaser75]

First few visible images of Vardah

[mrbagyo]

Eyewall is about half complete.

[StormChaser75]

First few visible images as the sun rises over Cyclone Vardah

[Alyono]

wouldnt be surprised if this strikes with winds in the 65 to 75 kt range. Not the horrific cyclone that was forecast initially, but still could be a major impact for Chennai

[euro6208]

05B VARDAH 161211 0600 12.9N 83.7E IO 75 980

75 knots now.

[Alyono]

radar shows a fairly intense eyewall heading directly toward Chennai, a city of more than 8 million