Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Ntxw]

Meh where is the arctic front on the Euro... through next Thursday no sign of any real cold. Hopefully this run is a fluke.

Maybe it will be back next run lol

[Brent]

Meh where is the arctic front on the Euro... through next Thursday no sign of any real cold. Hopefully this run is a fluke.

Maybe it will be back next run lol

the GFS finally went aggressive and the Euro loses it... lol

[Ntxw]

Meh where is the arctic front on the Euro... through next Thursday no sign of any real cold. Hopefully this run is a fluke.

Maybe it will be back next run lol

the GFS finally went aggressive and the Euro loses it... lol

That's life of watching every model run. It's an addiction. They give you just enough to hook you but never the whole thing

[Brent]

Where is FWD making this forecast for because it ain't happening in DFW

[TexasBreeze]

6z gfs went low 20s next week (15th) and teens afterwards in Houston (20th.)

[Portastorm]

That 6z GFS run ... whoo boy .... just .... wow.

[Ralph's Weather]

Temps dropping into the mid 30s, but still dry here. I bet the Permian Basin region is looking pretty this morning, but it sure is cold out there with wind chills in the teens. By my estimation at the top of Guadalupe Peak wind chills are below 0 with snow showers.

The GFS is eye candy for sure. We have foreseen this for months but it is still incredible to see modeled even if it is a wile out. Amazing how closely we are following 1983. Just as that year had the week before Christmas looks very cold (consecutive days with highs in the 20s and lows in the low teens or single digits) with maybe some snow.

[gboudx]

Temps dropping into the mid 30s, but still dry here.

My weather station had 28 and now down to 27 here in Rockwall. It's heading your way.

[gboudx]

Where is FWD making this forecast for because it ain't happening in DFW

Check the graphic again on the NWS site. I think they mistakenly posted last weekends graphic late last night. It appears to be corrected with more reasonable temps.

[ronyan]

Check out some of the temps on the 06z GFS modeled in Colorado in Wyoming, -53F shows on the map.

[Ntxw]

Clearly high resolution NAM did bad on this but HRRR is still decent



FYI DFW hit freezing, we can mark that off the bucket list

[orangeblood]

Wow, incredible back-to-back model runs on the GFS - if it were to verify, it would rival 1983 but very skeptical due to the Euro beginning to trend the other way. Here are the latest runs for the GFS and Euro at day 10, as you can see, it's all about how strong that Alaskan Ridge holds on....

GFS


Euro

[Brent]

That 6z gfs how can we top that lmao

[wxman57]

Fasten your seat belts, return your seat backs to their upright positions, and secure your tray tables. We're going for a ride next week (maybe).

[weatherdude1108]

That 6z GFS run ... whoo boy .... just .... wow.

Is this what you're talking about Porta? Those are some scary looking temps! I'm sure it will come true.

[CaptinCrunch]

FYI DFW hit freezing, we can mark that off the bucket list

Temps not as low as models forecasted, I was expecting 30 by 6am, it just barely hit 32 by 7:53am.

[Ntxw]

FYI DFW hit freezing, we can mark that off the bucket list

Temps not as low as models forecasted, I was expecting 30 by 6am, it just barely hit 32 by 7:53am.

The winds are up too strong, it's still gusting 30mph+

[Ralph's Weather]

FYI DFW hit freezing, we can mark that off the bucket list

Temps not as low as models forecasted, I was expecting 30 by 6am, it just barely hit 32 by 7:53am.

Temps seem to matching or even a tad below models in spots.

[Ntxw]

Wow, incredible back-to-back model runs on the GFS - if it were to verify, it would rival 1983 but very skeptical due to the Euro beginning to trend the other way. Here are the latest runs for the GFS and Euro at day 10, as you can see, it's all about how strong that Alaskan Ridge holds on....

GFS
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... mer_40.png

Euro
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... mer_11.png

GFS is more severe on the -EPO couplet with the -WPO in place. Euro had a more modest -EPO

[wxman57]

Note that the 00Z EC is about 30-35F warmer than the GFS for next Wed/Thu across SE TX. Also note that the GFS ensembles are about the same as the EC - way warmer than the operational run. In fact, the GFS ensembles suggest no freeze in Houston through the 24th. Ensembles are my friend...