Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Ntxw]

Note that the 00Z EC is about 30-35F warmer than the GFS for next Wed/Thu across SE TX. Also note that the GFS ensembles are about the same as the EC - way warmer than the operational run. In fact, the GFS ensembles suggest no freeze in Houston through the 24th. Ensembles are my friend...

Give it a few runs sir, for all we know by lunch time today the GFS will be warmer and the Euro flips colder . It's been like this since December 1st.

Meanwhile, you should go outside and feel the wind in your hair! It's quite blustery.

We all nitpick so much on temps and model runs, we forget to go out and enjoy it, it actually feels like winter!

[Ralph's Weather]

Terrell reported snow last hour and radar shows a band south of I-20 moving east.

[wxman57]

Note that the 00Z EC is about 30-35F warmer than the GFS for next Wed/Thu across SE TX. Also note that the GFS ensembles are about the same as the EC - way warmer than the operational run. In fact, the GFS ensembles suggest no freeze in Houston through the 24th. Ensembles are my friend...

Give it a few runs sir, for all we know by lunch time today the GFS will be warmer and the Euro flips colder . It's been like this since December 1st.

Meanwhile, you should go outside and feel the wind in your hair! It's quite blustery.

We all nitpick so much on temps and model runs, we forget to go out and enjoy it, it actually feels like winter!

My thinking was that I'd hunker down inside and crank up the heat. Unfortunately, the ensembles are not likely handling the cold air well. I have a bad feeling about this winter...

[davidiowx]

Note that the 00Z EC is about 30-35F warmer than the GFS for next Wed/Thu across SE TX. Also note that the GFS ensembles are about the same as the EC - way warmer than the operational run. In fact, the GFS ensembles suggest no freeze in Houston through the 24th. Ensembles are my friend...

Give it a few runs sir, for all we know by lunch time today the GFS will be warmer and the Euro flips colder . It's been like this since December 1st.

Meanwhile, you should go outside and feel the wind in your hair! It's quite blustery.

We all nitpick so much on temps and model runs, we forget to go out and enjoy it, it actually feels like winter!

My thinking was that I'd hunker down inside and crank up the heat. Unfortunately, the ensembles are not likely handling the cold air well. I have a bad feeling about this winter...

I had to log in just to press like on this post!!

[Ntxw]

Quite a cold day today across the US. Really much of the northern 2/3rds of North America. Far cry from a month ago and nothing like this last winter. Not too shabby for zonal flowish at 500mb and a GOA low spinning. Cold plowed its way through at the surface.





So even with all that zonal flow, what's to stop even colder air next week?

[CaptinCrunch]

Tonights TNF game between the Kansas City Chiefs & Oakland Raiders will be a cold one. Game time temp will be about 17 degrees and dropping under clear skies.

[Tireman4]

It is 48 here and dropping. They (NWS) says 44 by the end of the day. I am thinking 40-41..but you know...


40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KHGX 081128
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
528 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

.AVIATION...
Still a little light rain ongoing this morning and some patchy
light rain could still affect KSGR and KHOU but most TAF sites
will remain dry. Moisture trapped beneath a strong temperature
inversion will keep skies generally cloudy today. Clouds should
begin to thin/break out by late afternoon. Fcst soundings keep a
thin broken cloud layer around 8000 feet tonight. Winds will be a
concern as well with a tight pressure gradient in place. Added
gusts everywhere today with the higher sustained/gusts closer to
the coast. Winds do not fully decouple overnight. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
Changes are on the way for Southeast Texas today as colder and
windy conditions become established in the wake of a strong cold
front. Increasing northerly winds across the area and surface
analysis indicate that this frontal boundary has cleared the Upper
Texas coast, with some weak 925-850 MB frontogenetic forcing
behind the front resulting in a few light showers along the
Highway 59 corridor this morning. Greater rain coverage was
occurring offshore where this morning`s front was colliding with a
remnant boundary south of Buoy 42019, with enough instability (low
level lapse rates around 5.5-6 C/km) to even produce a few
lightning strikes. Expect best rain chances to remain offshore
today as a result of the front`s passage, but with lingering weak
forcing behind the front cannot rule out a few stray showers
generally along and south of the Highway 59 corridor through the
day.

A stout pressure gradient behind the front early this morning
(change of 7 MB over approximately 140 miles) will persist through
most of the day as a 1040 MB surface high associated with the
front noses farther into the Southern Plains. As a result, expect
winds 20 to 30 MPH with stronger gusts approaching 35 MPH for many
areas near and just inland of the coast. A Wind Advisory remains
in effect from 6 AM to 6 PM CST. Have added Fort Bend and Wharton
counties based on latest short term guidance, but expect these
areas to experience frequent wind gusts above 25 MPH (as opposed
to sustained winds at 25 MPH, which is Wind Advisory criteria).
Winds will decrease by this evening as the pressure gradient
begins to relax with the surface high`s arrival.

Temperatures today will continue to fall for a few hours this
morning as cold air advection behind the front increases, but will
rise a few degrees or remain steady around lunchtime as cold air
advection is offset somewhat by daytime heating. Expect afternoon
temperatures in the low to mid 40s inland, with upper 40s to near
50 along the coast. Drier air filtering into the region behind the
front tonight will help clear or thin the low clouds across the
region, but still have concerns on how much clearing will occur,
with some lower level saturation (800-700 MB) continuing to be
advertised on soundings and relative humidity progs as far north
as a College Station to Livingston line. These clouds would help
inhibit (but not prevent) radiational cooling, keeping
temperatures warmer.

Additional concerns include the recent rainfall that parts of the
region have received (especially the 5 to 7 inches of rain that
Walker and Montgomery Counties got last weekend) and light
rainfall that fell yesterday, which would help keep the ground
warmer. Winds also appear to not entirely decouple tonight and
this would allow for enough mechanical mixing to occur to also
keep temperatures from completely bottoming out. With all these
concerns in mind, have bumped up overnight lows a degree or two.
However, given the strength of the cold air advection behind the
front even this adjustment results in widespread freezing
temperatures along and north of a Columbus to Tomball to Dayton
Lakes line. Have gone ahead and issued a Freeze Warning for Friday
from midnight to 9 AM CST for these areas.

Dry and chilly weather will greet the region during the day on
Friday, with highs in the mid 40s to low 50s under mostly sunny to
partly cloudy skies.

Huffman

LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
The expansive surface high over the Southern Plains in the wake
of Thursday`s front will gradually shift east of the region Friday
night. The associated weak pressure gradient across the region
will result in light easterly winds across most of the region.
This, combined with clearing skies over all but the southwestern
counties, will contribute to another cold night across the region
with many locations along and east of Interstate 45/ north of
Interstate 10 again dropping near to below freezing on Saturday
morning. It is quite possible a few locations in this area may
actually be colder than what they observe Friday morning as a
result of less cloud cover and lighter winds.

Temperatures will moderate quite nicely on Saturday, however, as
onshore flow and associated warm air advection allow highs to
climb into the 50s to low 60s. Cloud cover will also increase
throughout the day Saturday as moisture returns. Isolated to
scattered showers are forecast to spread into the western
counties Saturday night and expanding eastward across the area on
Sunday from a combination of isentropic upglide and warm air
advection. Temperatures will continue to warm on Sunday, with
highs climbing into the mid 60s to low 70s on Sunday. A weak
frontal boundary looks to make its way towards Southeast Texas on
Monday, but (with guidance continuing to trend towards a more
zonal flow aloft) have lower confidence this boundary will
progress through the region and instead expect it to wash out
somewhere across East Texas.

Medium range guidance continues to advertise a second front
moving into the region on Wednesday, but with (vastly) different
intensities. The GFS slams the front (and an associated 1045 MB
surface high/ much colder temperatures) into Texas early Wednesday
morning as an upper trough swings into the Central Plains, while
the European spreads the front and surface high farther north and
east (keeping temperatures warmer). The Canadian and a few of the
GFS ensemble members are more supportive of the European solution
and have kept the far extended portion of the forecast warmer.
However, none of these models are (yet) showing surface
cyclogenesis as this storm system approaches the Great Plains, and
this would help the cold air spread farther east (as opposed to
south, which is what the GFS is showing). Regardless, will need to
monitor the middle of next week for another shot of much colder
weather for Southeast Texas.

Huffman

MARINE...
A strong cold front has pushed through the coastal waters and
winds at Buoy 35 are already over 20 knots so moved up the start
time for the Gale Warning to the present time. Very strong N/NE
developing in the wake of the front will persist all day and into
the evening. Winds over the Gulf will frequently gust in excess of
40 knots. SCA conditions will prevail over the bays today/tonight.

There might be some impact on Thurs for the more north-to-south
ship channels as water is pushed out of the bays. The N/NE wind
direction is currently in the forecast...and not expecting any low
water advisories at this time.

The strong offshore flow will slowly decrease on Friday as the
surface high moves east. A moderate onshore flow is forecast for
Saturday...but winds will be increasing back to near SCEC/SCA
criteria for Sat night/Sun as the gradient tightens in response to
the next storm system moving across the Southern Plains. The next
front on Sunday night will probably stall inland and not reach the
coastal waters. Onshore winds will persist through Tuesday night
but speeds will drop off as the gradient weakens. Although there
are some timing differences between the GFS and ECMWF, it appears
that another cold front will cross the Gulf next Wednesday or
Thursday. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 45 30 47 34 53 / 10 0 0 10 10
Houston (IAH) 51 33 49 33 55 / 30 10 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 55 41 51 45 61 / 40 10 0 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Friday for the
following zones: Austin...Brazos...Burleson...Colorado...
Grimes...Harris...Houston...Liberty...Madison...
Montgomery...Polk...San Jacinto...Trinity...Walker...
Waller...Washington.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the following
zones: Brazoria...Chambers...Fort Bend...Galveston...
Harris...Jackson...Matagorda...Wharton.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for the
following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Gale Warning until midnight CST tonight for the following zones:
Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out
20 NM...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...14
Aviation/Marine...43

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Remember too, the GFS guessed this cold outbreak better than the Euro. The Euro was the colder one while the GFS turned more zonal early. The GFS is the one always to predict cold temps though, so we will see. Its chilly outside. Love it!

[CaptinCrunch]

Last part of this Mornings NWS FTW AFD

Next week looks to remain primarily dry and cool to start off
with Monday into Tuesday, before what appears to be another
possible arctic air intrusion either Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday
night. The GFS is deeper with the cyclonic flow aloft versus the
Euro or Canadian models(which suggest a more shallow push of this
airmass). Either way and again with much collaboration (thank you
all again), we will use a raw blend of the model fronts and winds
and lean with an initial push into our northern counties Tuesday
afternoon, before moving through the entire area Tuesday night.
Did undercut guidance values for highs Wednesday and Thursday
considering the cold air with this airmass. I would not be
surprised if both low/high temperatures need to be lowered even
more for the latter half of next week. Luckily, it appears no
impacts at this time with a dry frontal surge expected, though the
Euro does show a potential low chance for precipitation next
Thursday. With my confidence wavering that far out in time,
prefer to lean with the dry forecast for now.

[Ntxw]

Remember too, the GFS guessed this cold outbreak better than the Euro. The Euro was the colder one while the GFS turned more zonal early. The GFS is the one always to predict cold temps though, so we will see. Its chilly outside. Love it!

Euro I think latched on to any kind of outbreak first. GEFS and ECMWF ENS were showing signs of outbreak (300+ hours out) wayyyy back in late November just after Thanksgiving. Overall this cold wave was well predicted by guidance. GFS was often still too warm showing only 30-31F for lows at DFW (if 20s happen tonight then that won't work). In the end a blend of the two was a good idea. Within 5 days they were all pretty reasonable

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Starting at 36 hours on the 06z, look at siberia on the N Hemisphere region, 2m temp map. You can see the cold air travel from Siberia straight down into the US.

[weatherdude1108]

While driving into work this morning around 7:15, my car read 41 degrees with the wind howling. There was a bicyclist on Parmer going eastbound approaching Mopac. He was wearing shorts, but did have a sweater and cap on. Maybe he's one of those folks who does the Polar Bear Plunge.

[Ntxw]

Starting at 36 hours on the 06z, look at siberia on the N Hemisphere region, 2m temp map. You can see the cold air travel from Siberia straight down into the US.

That's what cross polar flow is. When you have a ridge in the Bering, the air flow is clockwise around the high. To the North of it winds push air from Siberia across the arctic and to Canada/alaska. Below the high air is flowing left to right which essentially is backpedaling warm Pacific air. That's the other direction compared to with the big low that pumps it towards North America.

We Still need the EPO to help deliver it south.

[Tireman4]

While driving into work this morning around 7:15, my car read 41 degrees with the wind howling. There was a bicyclist on Parmer going eastbound approaching Mopac. He was wearing shorts, but did have a sweater and cap on. Maybe he's one of those folks who does the Polar Bear Plunge.

Nope, that was Wxman 57 who got caught out in the cold..bwahahah,,no no..he is suffering. I just know it. You know he hates to bike inside, so he is suffering.

[weatherdude1108]

While driving into work this morning around 7:15, my car read 41 degrees with the wind howling. There was a bicyclist on Parmer going eastbound approaching Mopac. He was wearing shorts, but did have a sweater and cap on. Maybe he's one of those folks who does the Polar Bear Plunge.

Nope, that was Wxman 57 who got caught out in the cold..bwahahah,,no no..he is suffering. I just know it. You know he hates to bike inside, so he is suffering.

That thought crossed my mind. I guess he thought it would be warmer in Austin.

[PTrackerLA]

12z GFS coming in about 10-15 degrees warmer for mid next week...

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Just read MJO may streak to 7,8 phase too . That would be huge.

[Ntxw]

Wxman57 dodges a bullet this GFS run, only upper 30s and 40s biking weather then it gets to 70+ before the next front comes in Houston.

Tune in next hour to the Euro for your next episode of "As the Model Runs"

[Tireman4]

Flippity Floppity.....

[Yukon Cornelius]

Woke up this morning to 27 degrees and now, at 10:45 it's only 30 with a windchill in the upper teens. Quite a chilly day up here along the river.