Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Brent]

Meh

on the meteogram it does have temperatures going from the 70s to 30s at day 10 at DFW. But the rest of the run is a disaster and warm.

[ronyan]

Curious to see the NWS discussions this afternoon.

[Rgv20]

A forecast low of 38 tonight with light rain for my area...

[Ntxw]

GFS and euro went from southwest ridge to southeast ridge the second one is more conducive to producing big winter storms and cold not sliding east.

[gatorcane]

Meh

on the meteogram it does have temperatures going from the 70s to 30s at day 10 at DFW. But the rest of the run is a disaster and warm.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_11.png

So much cold up across the Northern US and Southern Canada border area but just when it tries to make the move south it either gets modified or shunted east. Yeah frustrating for sure for you folks in Texas...here in South Florida we can't buy a cool down, though perhaps we'll see something Friday and Saturday...nothing like the models showed a week ago though.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS is a good bit warmer (not as freezing cold) as the 06Z. The 12Z EC has Houston down to 60 on Wednesday with a high in the mid 70s on Thursday. Coldest morning on the 12Z EC is upper 40s across Houston on the 18th. The EC is my friend!

I would be VERY cautious about believing any model run beyond the next 2-3 days.

[Rgv20]

GFS and euro went from southwest ridge to southeast ridge the second one is more conducive to producing big winter storms and cold not sliding east.

12zGFS Control Ensemble has 90% of Texas seeing snow by day 16...Going to be interesting what the 12zECMWF Control Run has on day 10 to 15 I'm guessing it will has some cold weather for Texas. Strong signals in the computer models that we should see a second stronger Arctic front in the next 8 to 12 days?? Going to be an interesting weeks coming up!

[Ntxw]

I agree with wxman57, its something different almost every run. The cold truth is mass of frigid anomalies just uo north, dip slightly south and weather is vastly different. 3-5 days is about as good as they can forecast.

We'll be model watching up until Christmas at this rate. On year ago this place had crickets.

[Tireman4]

I agree with wxman57, its something different almost every run. The cold truth is mass of frigid anomalies just uo north, dip slightly south and weather is vastly different. 3-5 days is about as good as they can forecast.

We'll be model watching up until Christmas at this rate. On year ago this place had crickets.

I agree. We kid with the young Jedi known as Wxman 57, but we have seen flippity floppities in models for years now...I mean back and forth. 3-5 days is about as good as it gets in the model world. Just be patient. As Ntxw and Srain preach..the trend is your friend.

[Texas Snowman]

...we have seen flippity floppities in models for years now

Actually, we're seeing flippity floppities in the models about every six hours right now!

[vbhoutex]

Terrell reported snow last hour and radar shows a band south of I-20 moving east.

I was wondering if my radar was just joshing me or was there really snow making it to the surface in the DFW area.

[SouthFLTropics]

Ummm, Christmas Eve??

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_51.png
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_52.png

I normally only follow the tropics on here but I'm supposed to drive from South Florida to NW Tennessee on Christmas Eve...Looks like I'll be paying attention to the model runs for the next 15 days. May have to adjust my travel timeline depending on the conditions.

SFT

[Texas Snowman]

On year ago this place had crickets.

Indeed, a year ago on December 8, the Texas Winter 2015-16 thread stood at only 11 pages (as compared to 41 so far this year).

[Tireman4]

Ummm, Christmas Eve??

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_51.png
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_52.png

I normally only follow the tropics on here but I'm supposed to drive from South Florida to NW Tennessee on Christmas Eve...Looks like I'll be paying attention to the model runs for the next 15 days. May have to adjust my travel timeline depending on the conditions.

SFT

Cat 5 in the Gulf!!

[SouthFLTropics]

Ummm, Christmas Eve??

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_51.png
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_52.png

I normally only follow the tropics on here but I'm supposed to drive from South Florida to NW Tennessee on Christmas Eve...Looks like I'll be paying attention to the model runs for the next 15 days. May have to adjust my travel timeline depending on the conditions.

SFT

Cat 5 in the Gulf!!

Priceless!!!

[Texas Snowman]

Ummm, Christmas Eve??

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_51.png
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_52.png

Hmmm, if that were to happen, for North Texas and Oklahoma maybe a repeat of either the Christmas Eve blizzard in 2009 and/or the 2012 White Christmas event?
I thought it was utterly amazing that we ended up having two such Christmastime winter weather events within five years of each other. But if that model idea were to materialize at all, anyone for three White Christmas events for North Texas within a decade?!? That would be pretty incredible!



Not everyone will remember this, but where's Mississippi State Wx Guy when you need him?

[Texas Snowman]

Ok, in another few days, if trends continue, I'm beginning to feel the need for the PWC office in ATX to consider issuing a press release.

[srainhoutx]

The Teleconnection indices are beginning to raise an eyebrow. Possible --AO/+PNA/-WPO/-EPO Hemispheric regime tends to suggest trouble for we warm weather lovers.

[Tireman4]

The Teleconnection indices are beginning to raise an eyebrow. Possible --AO/+PNA/-WPO/-EPO Hemispheric regime tends to suggest trouble for we warm weather lovers.

Looks like we are on the road....the road to cold...he he ....

[Ntxw]

6z GFS starts running in about an hour, any bets? Southeast or southwest ridge? Alaskan or NW Canada ridge? Over under starts at 30F (+/- 25 degrees)