Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Portastorm]

Hey STXExpat, thanks for my new avatar!

[Brent]

Pete Delkus
48 mins ·
Snow? Sleet? Wintry Mix or just plain cold rain?!? I'm thinking about bringing a winter storm to North Texas Tuesday or Wednesday of next week!! Stay tuned.

The DFW hype is underway

[STX Expat]

Glad you like it, Porta. Hoping we can change it to that snow covered jacket by the end of winter.

[Brent]

18z GFS has more wintry mischief towards Christmas, multiple chances... stays cold the entire run even past Christmas

Christmas Eve

[dhweather]

Pete Delkus
48 mins ·
Snow? Sleet? Wintry Mix or just plain cold rain?!? I'm thinking about bringing a winter storm to North Texas Tuesday or Wednesday of next week!! Stay tuned.

The DFW hype is underway

You would think there's a cat 5 in the gulf.

[Ntxw]

Pete Delkus
48 mins ·
Snow? Sleet? Wintry Mix or just plain cold rain?!? I'm thinking about bringing a winter storm to North Texas Tuesday or Wednesday of next week!! Stay tuned.

The DFW hype is underway [/quote

Maybe Delkus saw the 1-2" of liquid in 35F on the euro, oh so close

[Brent]

Wednesday on the GFS, not much precip but it is frozen:

in the days after you can see where there's accumulation because temps are colder

[Golf7070]

Ntxw，just have a few questions. I read about the tropical forcing is shifting east and will allow for a warmup but shouldnt last too long. Also，i read about big changes in the central pacific. Any idea what that means or may mean? Mjo could get active also and hopefully shake things up as well.

[Golf7070]

One more thing....can someone who has access to euro products tell me how much qpf js frozen for me sat nite into sunday. I live in jonesboro ar. Thanks

[TheProfessor]

Not gonna spam photos, but I thought this photo I took earlier today was pretty cool.

hosting images

[TheProfessor]

One more thing....can someone who has access to euro products tell me how much qpf js frozen for me sat nite into sunday. I live in jonesboro ar. Thanks

It looks like you'll be getting a lot of precip as your temperature falls below freezing, the text output only does 3 hour totals at the lowest and I would need to do 1 hour intervals . It also has .12 of qpf after you hit freezing in the lower levels. Of course I need to look at a skew-t to see if there is a warm nose or not.

Edit: Looks like there is a warm nose at hour 114, but it's right around freezing at the 700 mb height. The rest of the column is below freezing, however it's not a skew-t that promotes great dendritic growth, it's around 575-400 mb heights, Compared to it starting around 700 mb for me this morning and has since lowered to around 775 mb this evening. This means growth for snow won't be as efficient and the snow to rain ratio won't be very high. However, this is only for hour 114, this was the best hour I could get from the run that could produce wintry precip.

[Golf7070]

One more thing....can someone who has access to euro products tell me how much qpf js frozen for me sat nite into sunday. I live in jonesboro ar. Thanks

It looks like you'll be getting a lot of precip as your temperature falls below freezing, the text output only does 3 hour totals at the lowest and I would need to do 1 hour intervals . It also has .12 of qpf after you hit freezing in the lower levels. Of course I need to look at a skew-t to see if there is a warm nose or not.

If u have wxbell，check for me please or any other source. Just tryin to get a good idea. Remember, im in jonesboro，not extreme ne arkansas. Just sw of there

[TheProfessor]

One more thing....can someone who has access to euro products tell me how much qpf js frozen for me sat nite into sunday. I live in jonesboro ar. Thanks

It looks like you'll be getting a lot of precip as your temperature falls below freezing, the text output only does 3 hour totals at the lowest and I would need to do 1 hour intervals . It also has .12 of qpf after you hit freezing in the lower levels. Of course I need to look at a skew-t to see if there is a warm nose or not.

If u have wxbell，check for me please or any other source. Just tryin to get a good idea. Remember, im in jonesboro，not extreme ne arkansas. Just sw of there

I just edited my post above with information from skew-t I saw. I used the coordinates of Jonesboro. I can't post any images, I'm not sure of Accuweathers rules, but they're professional does cost I believe.

[sv74]

I've been watching this close because I'm supposed to be flying out of love field next Tuesday at noon. Should I be worried?

[A.V.]

Troll much?

Every post.

No.

Good, beat it down for good. I need it to go away so we can have any hope of winter fun over here in SELA. I know it won't be this go round but maybe later in the winter. The last few years it has just sat there and kept the cold to our west and I am sick and tired of it.

1. Louisiana has been seeing cold in the past winters. In fact, Texas stayed warm last winter, while the cold went to the SE.

2. The SE ridge provides gorgeous weather people around the country kill to vacation in. No wonder why real estate prices in South Florida are so high...

[A.V.]

I know all of you folks in Texas are excited about some cold weather...Meanwhile down here in Florida we're dying... We're having a hard time getting lows in the mid 60's each night. A/C is working overtime and my power bill is almost as much as it is in the Summer. Send us some cold air this way after it passes you!!!

SFL

Are you crazy? People like South Florida because of the warm weather.

[Brent]

I've been watching this close because I'm supposed to be flying out of love field next Tuesday at noon. Should I be worried?

No reason to be worried yet, it's a week out, just watch it for now. Things aren't etched in stone. The models today have the precip more Tuesday Night and Wednesday but of course things will change, and who knows, it could just be rain for all we know.

[Ntxw]

Ntxw，just have a few questions. I read about the tropical forcing is shifting east and will allow for a warmup but shouldnt last too long. Also，i read about big changes in the central pacific. Any idea what that means or may mean? Mjo could get active also and hopefully shake things up as well.

The eastward tropical forcing won't last long. This has been the issue with the models and the Pacific. They extend a pattern too long and struggle when something is shifting. It's merely a relaxing period but convection will likely revert back to where Nina's favor it, Maritime and IO. Aleutian ridge is going to be the dominant feature in the Pacific this winter. This is the exact opposite of last winter when the Aleutian low was dominant there. The ridge flexes and wanes and during the transition periods is when models struggle most in the NPO region.





As we go deeper into December the departures should continue. DFW, Austin, and Houston is well below normal to date for the month.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I think the MJO is coming into our favor allowing the trough to dig really deep into the CONUS versus a High being there and shunting it to the east. This Canadian air but not blistering cold, yet were talking about the potential of a winter storm. Good stuff!

[Golf7070]

Ntxw，what are the big changes in the central pacific that some are referring to? Professor，is it more of a fzr/sleet threat in my area? Based on euro?