Texas Winter 2016-2017

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Ntxw
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#1241 Postby Ntxw » Tue Dec 13, 2016 9:47 pm

Golf7070 wrote:Ntxw,what are the big changes in the central pacific that some are referring to? Professor,is it more of a fzr/sleet threat in my area? Based on euro?


I'm not sure what changes in the central Pacific you are asking about? The Nina standing wave perhaps?
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#1242 Postby South Texas Storms » Tue Dec 13, 2016 9:51 pm

Interesting developments with today's model runs! They are clearly struggling trying to figure out the pattern next week.

I just hope we can keep the precip coming. It's been another awesome wet year! :D
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#1243 Postby Golf7070 » Tue Dec 13, 2016 9:59 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Golf7070 wrote:Ntxw,what are the big changes in the central pacific that some are referring to? Professor,is it more of a fzr/sleet threat in my area? Based on euro?


I'm not sure what changes in the central Pacific you are asking about? The Nina standing wave perhaps?


Anthony masiello mentioned it on twitter yesterday. Tropical forcing i think shifting more east than west....further from dateline i think which i hope is good :double:

What are ur thoughts on mjo?
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#1244 Postby TexasF6 » Tue Dec 13, 2016 10:00 pm

Canadian paints a pre-Christmas Week ice storm in Dallas, freezing rain. No bueno!
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#1245 Postby TheProfessor » Tue Dec 13, 2016 10:29 pm

Golf7070 wrote:Ntxw,what are the big changes in the central pacific that some are referring to? Professor,is it more of a fzr/sleet threat in my area? Based on euro?


Probably a mix if I were to guess. The warm nose isn't very big according to the Euro or even very warm. But, the column I saw doesn't support great snow growth as of right now.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#1246 Postby TheProfessor » Tue Dec 13, 2016 10:31 pm

TexasF6 wrote:Canadian paints a pre-Christmas Week ice storm in Dallas, freezing rain. No bueno!


I loathe Ice storms, Can't play in them, can't walk on it. My dog tries to kill me when I walk him on ice. I much prefer snow.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#1247 Postby Ntxw » Tue Dec 13, 2016 10:41 pm

Golf7070 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Golf7070 wrote:Ntxw,what are the big changes in the central pacific that some are referring to? Professor,is it more of a fzr/sleet threat in my area? Based on euro?


I'm not sure what changes in the central Pacific you are asking about? The Nina standing wave perhaps?


Anthony masiello mentioned it on twitter yesterday. Tropical forcing i think shifting more east than west....further from dateline i think which i hope is good :double:

What are ur thoughts on mjo?


The MJO forecasts has been struggling, thus the inconsistencies of the models. It will progress east as it usually does and we may even see the PNA spike up briefly. But that won't last because of the Nina, it will likely reorganize over the IO/maritimes come the new year for renewed Aleutian ridge
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#1248 Postby Ntxw » Tue Dec 13, 2016 11:12 pm

0z GFS arctic front comes through Saturday evening and by midnight should be close to freezing. Has some snow/mix along the Red River. At 5h after that there are some slight differences between it and the 12z/18z for the storm digging down out west

Sunday's high is basically in the upper 20s for DFW, Austin would be in the mid to upper 30s
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#1249 Postby Ntxw » Tue Dec 13, 2016 11:31 pm

0z GFS is slower with the low for mid week. It looks like on this run it may try to be a west Texas snowstorm

Meanwhile Christmas timeframe storm is coming down the west
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#1250 Postby Brent » Tue Dec 13, 2016 11:35 pm

Looks like a very cold rain in DFW Wednesday this run
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#1251 Postby Ntxw » Tue Dec 13, 2016 11:36 pm

Brent wrote:Looks like a very cold rain in DFW Wednesday this run


If it ejects a little quicker it would catch the colder air. Cutoff lows are always such a pain to forecast :lol:.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#1252 Postby Brent » Tue Dec 13, 2016 11:37 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Brent wrote:Looks like a very cold rain in DFW Wednesday this run


If it ejects a little quicker it would catch the colder air. Cutoff lows are always such a pain to forecast :lol:.


don't remind me :lol: We'll know about when it starts snowing or not snowing. :P
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#1253 Postby JayDT » Tue Dec 13, 2016 11:38 pm

It can never be simple... :roll:
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#1254 Postby Ntxw » Tue Dec 13, 2016 11:38 pm

Christmas system is looking a lot stronger on this run than previous runs. But we're now well over 200 hours.

Probably going to be a snowstorm on this run for Christmas Eve, big high to the north surface low to the south
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#1255 Postby Brent » Tue Dec 13, 2016 11:41 pm

JayDT wrote:It can never be simple... :roll:


I'm used to it, 25 years in Alabama it was the same way. Cold core lows were either really amazing or total disasters. There's no in between.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#1256 Postby weatherdude1108 » Tue Dec 13, 2016 11:42 pm

Ntxw wrote:0z GFS arctic front comes through Saturday evening and by midnight should be close to freezing. Has some snow/mix along the Red River. At 5h after that there are some slight differences between it and the 12z/18z for the storm digging down out west

Sunday's high is basically in the upper 20s for DFW, Austin would be in the mid to upper 30s

:eek: :cold:
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#1257 Postby JayDT » Tue Dec 13, 2016 11:45 pm

Brent wrote:
JayDT wrote:It can never be simple... :roll:


I'm used to it, 25 years in Alabama it was the same way. Cold core lows were either really amazing or total disasters. There's no in between.

Im used to it also, but I still hate it lol. There really is no in between. Lets hope next week we'll be talking about some snow around here! :wink:
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#1258 Postby Brent » Tue Dec 13, 2016 11:45 pm

More cold rain on December 23rd, but we're getting into fantasy land
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#1259 Postby Brent » Tue Dec 13, 2016 11:49 pm

Christmas Eve wraparound snow

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#1260 Postby Ntxw » Tue Dec 13, 2016 11:51 pm

Brent wrote:Christmas Eve wraparound snow


I'd say the odds of 70 degrees on Christmas seems to be diminishing. But you know...200 hours.
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