Texas Winter 2016-2017

Winter Weather Discussion

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Stormcenter
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#1301 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Dec 14, 2016 4:41 pm

And tonight the GFS will show a blizzard. :D
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#1302 Postby gpsnowman » Wed Dec 14, 2016 4:48 pm

:uarrow: Correct!! All is not lost. Just a couple days ago the models lost most of everything but quickly rebounded. We know the cold is coming this weekend and any moisture involved will be minimal at best. Still have a few days to sort out the middle of next week. Who knows, maybe the clouds and cold linger longer through the week. The moisture is sure to come back on future runs. I hope. :roll:
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#1303 Postby Brent » Wed Dec 14, 2016 4:52 pm

Yeah I wouldn't give up on next week yet I still think there's a lot of potential between midweek and around Christmas. But I'd be really annoyed if we get through this pattern and don't get anything.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#1304 Postby gpsnowman » Wed Dec 14, 2016 5:10 pm

For the weekend front, the NWS upped the "flurry line" from I-20 to points north to a HWY 380 line. Pretty good difference. We shall see.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#1305 Postby Portastorm » Wed Dec 14, 2016 5:12 pm

The 12z Euro temps throughout Texas for this weekend are almost identical to the 0z run so no need for everyone to freak out as the result of an 850mb map. I just looked over the numbers. Take a deep breath, folks. :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#1306 Postby JayDT » Wed Dec 14, 2016 5:28 pm

gpsnowman wrote:For the weekend front, the NWS upped the "flurry line" from I-20 to points north to a HWY 380 line. Pretty good difference. We shall see.

Of course... :roll: Hopefully they change it back further south again.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#1307 Postby Brent » Wed Dec 14, 2016 5:38 pm

JayDT wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:For the weekend front, the NWS upped the "flurry line" from I-20 to points north to a HWY 380 line. Pretty good difference. We shall see.

Of course... :roll: Hopefully they change it back further south again.


I've never been real impressed by the weekend at most it's gonna be some wind blown flurries probably.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#1308 Postby aggiecutter » Wed Dec 14, 2016 6:04 pm

Confidence is growing for a mid-week ice storm for North and Northeast Texas. The Austin area might even get into the fun with some freezing drizzle, maybe even a little grauple.

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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#1309 Postby Brent » Wed Dec 14, 2016 7:01 pm

Christmas storm is still on the 18z christmas day is warm and maybe stormy and the changeover is the day after
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#1310 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Wed Dec 14, 2016 7:07 pm

Models lost a storm 5 days out.... Weird.....


Happens everytime guys! :)
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#1311 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Dec 14, 2016 7:11 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Models lost a storm 5 days out.... Weird.....


Happens everytime guys! :)


Was the Christmas storm of 04 forecasted or did that come out of nowhere?
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#1312 Postby gpsnowman » Wed Dec 14, 2016 7:30 pm

Steve McCauley, one of the smartest weather persons I have seen or read in the DFW area over the years, has an interesting FB post regarding the weekend front. He touches on the definition of a "blue norther", which is informative and humorous at the same time. It is about to get cold.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#1313 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Wed Dec 14, 2016 7:31 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Models lost a storm 5 days out.... Weird.....


Happens everytime guys! :)


Was the Christmas storm of 04 forecasted or did that come out of nowhere?


If I remember correctly it was somewhat forecasted 300 hours plus out and lost it until now cast time
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#1314 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Wed Dec 14, 2016 7:54 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Models lost a storm 5 days out.... Weird.....


Happens everytime guys! :)


Was the Christmas storm of 04 forecasted or did that come out of nowhere?


The South/SE Tx snowstorm was a complete surprise. Mets that morning were saying, "if you do see some lets us know, but dont get your hopes up too much."

6pm, it was dumping.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#1315 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Wed Dec 14, 2016 7:55 pm

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Models lost a storm 5 days out.... Weird.....


Happens everytime guys! :)


Was the Christmas storm of 04 forecasted or did that come out of nowhere?


If I remember correctly it was somewhat forecasted 300 hours plus out and lost it until now cast time


It was! Billingsley showed it as a joke, snow on Christmas Eve, over 10 days before but then there was nothing there.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#1316 Postby wxman22 » Wed Dec 14, 2016 8:03 pm

Yes I remember the gfs being the first model to sniff out the 2004 Christmas snow over 300 hours in advance. Of course it flipped flipped on it though... lol.Till this day i still cant believe that the snowstorm verified.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#1317 Postby Portastorm » Wed Dec 14, 2016 8:24 pm

aggiecutter wrote:Confidence is growing for a mid-week ice storm for North and Northeast Texas. The Austin area might even get into the fun with some freezing drizzle, maybe even a little grauple.


Freezing drizzle or graupel?! I wouldn't know what to do with myself. :)

Good luck aggiecutter. You seem to have good luck with these kinds of systems,
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#1318 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Wed Dec 14, 2016 8:27 pm

I'm traveling to my hometown in NE TX on Wednesday... interesting
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#1319 Postby JayDT » Wed Dec 14, 2016 9:16 pm

aggiecutter wrote:Confidence is growing for a mid-week ice storm for North and Northeast Texas. The Austin area might even get into the fun with some freezing drizzle, maybe even a little grauple.

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I hope you're right... Anything to take advantage of the cold air
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#1320 Postby aggiecutter » Wed Dec 14, 2016 9:26 pm

Portastorm wrote:
aggiecutter wrote:Confidence is growing for a mid-week ice storm for North and Northeast Texas. The Austin area might even get into the fun with some freezing drizzle, maybe even a little grauple.


Freezing drizzle or graupel?! I wouldn't know what to do with myself. :)

Good luck aggiecutter. You seem to have good luck with these kinds of systems,


No thanks, the Christmas Day Ice Storm of 2000 is still fresh in my mind. The Weather Channel ranks it as the 7th worst ice storm in our Nations history:

Christmas 2000 ice storm facts:

Image

Over 1 inch of accumulated ice in many locations from northeast Texas into southeast Oklahoma, Arkansas and northern Louisiana.
At least 600,000 customers were without power.
These were the two most widespread, damaging ice storms of record in Arkansas history at the time, dating to 1819, according to the National Weather Service.
Much of cities of Texarkana, Hot Springs and Little Rock, Ark. were without power.
Water systems in Texarkana and Hot Springs, Ark. were also down.
FEMA Director James Lee Witt's western Ark. farm also lost power.
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