Texas Winter 2016-2017

[aggiecutter]

NBC 6 Weather ‏@NBC6Weather 16m16 minutes ago
Christmas Day looks mainly dry. Could begin with a little rain and end with a few flakes that Sunday night

[Ntxw]

The temperature to beat this weekend for DFW is 19F. That's the coldest December temperature we have seen in a decade back in 2013. To find anything colder you'll have to look back to 2005 when the low was 15F

Also last week's outbreak the GFS and Euro had about 30 for lows in some forecasts. At DFW the low was 24 for that blast. Assuming their 19-22F prediction for the same margin of error...the daily record low of 15F is the benchmark

From last week's front (Weds-Fri)

Euro only has 30 at DFW and the GFS 29 and the official forecast is 20 with all the local stations in the low 20s at least. Are we headed for a big bust up here too?

[A.V.]

Man, I sense it coming: I sense that this coming cold blast will fail epically, and become only cool at best. I can feel it.

[Ntxw]

Man, I sense it coming: I sense that this coming cold blast will fail epically, and become only cool at best. I can feel it.

Please provide some evidence. Care to share some numbers? It's a fine forecast but we'd like to see some details and what you are seeing, unless it is anecdotal at best.

[A.V.]

Please provide some evidence. Care to share some numbers? It's a fine forecast but we'd like to see some details and what you are seeing, unless it is anecdotal at best.

I'm out right now, I will post some data relating to it when I get back to the house.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Man, I sense it coming: I sense that this coming cold blast will fail epically, and become only cool at best. I can feel it.

Please provide some evidence. Care to share some numbers? It's a fine forecast but we'd like to see some details and what you are seeing, unless it is anecdotal at best.

Don't feed the troll.

[Ntxw]

Don't feed the troll.

Moderator hat on; I am well aware of Rules and Guidelines: #14.

I'm just trying to help out by asking for sound information to back up an idea. We do prefer meaningful, thoughtful posts so that's what I'm looking for in the followup to keep the post informative .

Moderator hat off:

[ravyrn]

The temperature to beat this weekend for DFW is 19F. That's the coldest December temperature we have seen in a decade back in 2013. To find anything colder you'll have to look back to 2005 when the low was 15F

Also last week's outbreak the GFS and Euro had about 30 for lows in some forecasts. At DFW the low was 24 for that blast. Assuming their 19-22F prediction for the same margin of error...the daily record low of 15F is the benchmark

From last week's front (Weds-Fri)

Euro only has 30 at DFW and the GFS 29 and the official forecast is 20 with all the local stations in the low 20s at least. Are we headed for a big bust up here too?

What was the low back in the Jan/Feb events from 2011? The Superbowl shenanigans? I remember during one of those events it stayed below freezing for several days, and I remember my car saying it was 9F one morning, but that was north a little bit in Little Elm.

[Ntxw]

What was the low back in the Jan/Feb events from 2011? The Superbowl shenanigans? I remember during one of those events it stayed below freezing for several days, and I remember my car saying it was 9F one morning, but that was north a little bit in Little Elm.

Quite cold, many areas were single digits and DFW was 13F. I was only referring to December though, Jan/Feb/March have been much colder. Particular of late as winters have been back heavy.

[TheAustinMan]

Quite cold, many areas were single digits and DFW was 13F. I was only referring to December though, Jan/Feb/March have been much colder. Particular of late as winters have been back heavy.

Those were fun times. If I recall correctly that cold rush of air from that upper-level disturbance set the stage for one of those rare snow days in Austin (we got 0.9"!) The latest NAM4km seems to depict a slightly faster front than before, but the run is only out to 30 hours.

[Ntxw]

Quite cold, many areas were single digits and DFW was 13F. I was only referring to December though, Jan/Feb/March have been much colder. Particular of late as winters have been back heavy.

Those were fun times. If I recall correctly that cold rush of air from that upper-level disturbance set the stage for one of those rare snow days in Austin (we got 0.9"!) The latest NAM4km seems to depict a slightly faster front than before, but the run is only out to 30 hours.

Yeah Temperature gradient across the state was pretty neat. I think Amarillo was near 0 or lower and down in the RGV it was in the 80s. Should be a pretty strong gradient this weekend too, but perhaps not to the magnitude of that event. It's been so long since we've had a good, strong 5h vorticity to come out with a kick. So many have been sheared really since that winter.

[ravyrn]

What was the low back in the Jan/Feb events from 2011? The Superbowl shenanigans? I remember during one of those events it stayed below freezing for several days, and I remember my car saying it was 9F one morning, but that was north a little bit in Little Elm.

Quite cold, many areas were single digits and DFW was 13F. I was only referring to December though, Jan/Feb/March have been much colder. Particular of late as winters have been back heavy.

Oh! My apologies! I misread the post! I missed the December-specific temps portion.

[Ntxw]

Oh! My apologies! I misread the post! I missed the December-specific temps portion.

No problem! . Decembers have under performed a lot since about 2000. February believe it or not has been colder than our historical average.





Looks like this December will be one of the few below normal ones of late.

[gboudx]

I'm looking forward to A.V.'s data that shows the Sunday arctic front won't be a big deal and will only be cool. It would be an epic bust of a blue norther becoming nothing more than a garden-variety cool front.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

GFS running

[gpsnowman]

I'm looking forward to A.V.'s data that shows the Sunday arctic front won't be a big deal and will only be cool. It would be an epic bust of a blue norther becoming nothing more than a garden-variety cool front.

I'm sure it has something to do with a massive SE ridge extending to the Phillpines that is going to swat all the arctic air back where it came from because arctic air has no business making it this far south. I'm thinking this front has a different idea. I have the data but my dog ate it.

[Brent]

I'm looking forward to A.V.'s data that shows the Sunday arctic front won't be a big deal and will only be cool. It would be an epic bust of a blue norther becoming nothing more than a garden-variety cool front.

I'm sure it has something to do with a massive SE ridge extending to the Phillpines that is going to swat all the arctic air back where it came from because arctic air has no business making it this far south. I'm thinking this front has a different idea. I have the data but my dog ate it.

[Brent]

Those 5-10 degree wind chills in the metroplex Sunday morning boy that arctic air sure is lost, what's it doing here?

[Ntxw]

0z GFS midweek storm is a lost cause, stalling it west of the Baja this run.

upper 20s, maybe 30 for a high on Sunday, near freezing or just above for Monday. Lows both around 20.

[Brent]

Next Thursday storm is faster and doesn't really go til it's east of us

Not much warmth to be found. Maybe a couple days in the 50s

Dry leading up to Christmas Eve