Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Snowman67]

By this evening and tonight we should be able to track the cold front especially in Kansas as there will be a fairly sharp distinction of temperatures in that state. Should move quickly south toward the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles.

Ntxw_ I'm having a hard time finding a map that shows where the cold front currently is? Is there a reason for this, or a link you can post to a map that shows where the front is currently? Thanks.

[Portastorm]

Some of the real smartypants wx experts whom I follow on social media have, in the last 24 hours, referenced projections by the GFS (and other models) of growing vertical energy transfer and a strengthening stratospheric polar vortex in the days ahead. That could mean a milder pattern in early January and wx much more influenced by zonal flow. We shall see.

[Snowman67]

Some of the real smartypants wx experts whom I follow on social media have, in the last 24 hours, referenced projections by the GFS (and other models) of growing vertical energy transfer and a strengthening stratospheric polar vortex in the days ahead. That could mean a milder pattern in early January and wx much more influenced by zonal flow. We shall see.

lalalalalalalala (plugging my ears)

[Yukon Cornelius]

From Norman, OK. That's some pretty chilly air!

[Ntxw]

By this evening and tonight we should be able to track the cold front especially in Kansas as there will be a fairly sharp distinction of temperatures in that state. Should move quickly south toward the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles.

Ntxw_ I'm having a hard time finding a map that shows where the cold front currently is? Is there a reason for this, or a link you can post to a map that shows where the front is currently? Thanks.

It's hard to tell because it's already very cold in the northern US. WPC surface analysis does show a boundary from NE Colorado, through South Dakota and NW Minnesota. It will be easier to see once it hits warmer air to the south of it later today.

[Ntxw]

Some of the real smartypants wx experts whom I follow on social media have, in the last 24 hours, referenced projections by the GFS (and other models) of growing vertical energy transfer and a strengthening stratospheric polar vortex in the days ahead. That could mean a milder pattern in early January and wx much more influenced by zonal flow. We shall see.

That jives with the +AO currently in existence. But we're getting cold because of ridging in the GOA and a very cold Canada. This type of cold coming this weekend you would typically not associate with the run of the mill 1030s HP. It's going to torch in the southeast and east coast because of it though for sure.

[gboudx]

You can try this map.

In case anyone missed this quip from the DFW NWS today:

This front will have all the nuance and subtlety of a Sherman
tank, as it delivers strong gusty northerly winds and rapidly
dropping temperatures through the afternoon and evening hours
Saturday.

[Snowman67]

By this evening and tonight we should be able to track the cold front especially in Kansas as there will be a fairly sharp distinction of temperatures in that state. Should move quickly south toward the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles.

Ntxw_ I'm having a hard time finding a map that shows where the cold front currently is? Is there a reason for this, or a link you can post to a map that shows where the front is currently? Thanks.

It's hard to tell because it's already very cold in the northern US. WPC surface analysis does show a boundary from NE Colorado, through South Dakota and NW Minnesota. It will be easier to see once it hits warmer air to the south of it later today.

Thanks. I like to watch the front real time on Weather Underground's Wunder map to see the temperature drops as the front moves southward. Especially with these fronts, where there will be rapid drops behind the front.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Some of the real smartypants wx experts whom I follow on social media have, in the last 24 hours, referenced projections by the GFS (and other models) of growing vertical energy transfer and a strengthening stratospheric polar vortex in the days ahead. That could mean a milder pattern in early January and wx much more influenced by zonal flow. We shall see.

Less of an effect on us.. much more of an effect on the East Coast where most of those guys reside.

The massive expanse of cold in Canada and ridging off the West Coast will serve us fine as it bleeds down.

[weatherdude1108]

You can try this map.

In case anyone missed this quip from the DFW NWS today:

This front will have all the nuance and subtlety of a Sherman
tank, as it delivers strong gusty northerly winds and rapidly
dropping temperatures through the afternoon and evening hours
Saturday.

I just saw that. Cracked me up.

[Portastorm]

Some of the real smartypants wx experts whom I follow on social media have, in the last 24 hours, referenced projections by the GFS (and other models) of growing vertical energy transfer and a strengthening stratospheric polar vortex in the days ahead. That could mean a milder pattern in early January and wx much more influenced by zonal flow. We shall see.

Less of an effect on us.. much more of an effect on the East Coast where most of those guys reside.

The massive expanse of cold in Canada and ridging off the West Coast will serve us fine as it bleeds down.

I trust that you're right. I was just sharing what I had seen from some and I'll be the first to admit that I don't know much about the factors which these guys referenced. Once I get past things like atmospheric indices (AO, NAO, PNA, EPO, etc.), my eyes start to glaze over.

[Tireman4]

Wow. HGX. Wow....

A slight chance of showers or drizzle before noon, then a chance of showers after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72. South wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tonight A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. South wind 5 to 15 mph.
Saturday A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. South wind 10 to 15 mph.
Saturday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight, then a chance of showers between midnight and 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. South wind 10 to 15 mph becoming north after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Sunday Mostly sunny, with a steady temperature around 38. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 29.
Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 44.
Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 33.

[Tireman4]

S64 KHGX 161604
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1004 AM CST Fri Dec 16 2016

.UPDATE...
Onshore flow has increased temps and fog a bit faster than
expected along the coast and just offshore, and have added mention
of that and adjusted morning grids accordingly. Expect the fog to linger
and expand through the day with persistent flow off the gulf.
Otherwise, forecast on track with unseasonably mild conditions
spreading inland as coastal/warm front shifts north through the
day. Have kept mention of slight chance of showers as a few quick
hitting showers develop today.

Evans

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CST Fri Dec 16 2016/

AVIATION...
Deck of MVFR ceilings and fog banks have been slow to work up
from farther down the coast with the warm front, but are
beginning to move in from the southwest now. So the short term
works to delay the degradation of conditions a little bit. Expect
some slight improvement for the afternoon, but with plenty of Gulf
moisture streaming up on onshore flow, not expecting a ton of
improvement. Look to see some degradation again overnight as the
front drifts further inland and the same Gulf air remains in
place.

&&

MARINE...
High pressure is moving eastward and about to leave the Ohio Valley
for the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States. In the meantime, lee
cyclogenesis is occurring in Colorado, and is creating the setup for
a breezy, onshore, pre-frontal environment overnight Friday into
Saturday morning. These winds look to be marginal for small craft
conditions, and will hold off on issuing until there`s a little more
confidence since recent trends seem to have been downward, and not
sure where they will stabilize. On the flip side, with solid onshore
flow of moist air over relatively cooler waters, sea fog development
is a forecast on more solid ground. That environment will exist
until the cold front comes late Saturday night to clear out any
lingering fog.

Regarding the front, winds should calm some Saturday, but are likely
to rapidly increase following the passage of the front after
midnight. There`s enough confidence in the forecast to issue a gale
watch for late Saturday night and Sunday. This watch is, by design,
fairly broad in space and time, hitting all marine zones and
stretching from a couple hours before the front hitting the water
until a little after gale force gusts exist in our forecast. This
was purposefully done to account for current uncertainty in timing
and strength of the winds, and to ensure that any warning that
follows will not be outside the current watch area. All in all, the
best chance for hitting the gale will be farther offshore, and from
shortly after the front late Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Outside of that, will leave the decision to later shifts to better
refine the parameters of any warning. Still expect sustained winds
to around 30 knots, and frequent gusts up to 40 knots. Gusty winds
look to continue over the warmer and less stable Gulf waters through
Monday.

Strong onshore winds will bring elevated tides toward the coast on
Friday and Friday night but current projections keep tide levels
around or just under 3.0 feet. Not expecting significant impacts
along the Bolivar peninsula at this time. In the wake of the strong
cold front on Sunday, water levels will be pushed out of the bay and
low water may be an issue if the direction is more north than
northeast.

Luchs

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 70 67 78 29 38 / 20 20 20 40 10
Houston (IAH) 72 70 80 36 42 / 30 20 20 50 10
Galveston (GLS) 71 68 76 43 45 / 30 30 20 60 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Gale Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon for
the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda
Bay...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Saturday for the following
zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
20 to 60 NM.

[Ntxw]

No worries Portastorm! There is so much floating out there with social media and when you only get a few sentences, it is hard to comprehend everything. The +AO pattern is not a preferable one for anybody but we are a lot more dependent on the Pacific pattern most of all. East coast is terrified of ridging into the Gulf of Alaska, because it translates into a western trough and eastern ridge. We sit in the middle and stuff to our west benefits us often times more than stuff to our east.

[hriverajr]

No worries Portastorm! There is so much floating out there with social media and when you only get a few sentences, it is hard to comprehend everything. The +AO pattern is not a preferable one for anybody but we are a lot more dependent on the Pacific pattern most of all. East coast is terrified of ridging into the Gulf of Alaska, because it translates into a western trough and eastern ridge. We sit in the middle and stuff to our west benefits us often times more than stuff to our east.

I would agree.. eastern based trough usually gives us zilch.

[gboudx]

Update from jeff:

Much advertised arctic front heading for SE TX Saturday night.

Warm front advancing inland this morning with light drizzle and fog covering much of SE TX. Temperatures range from 46 at Crockett to 69 at Galveston. Warm front is along a line from Victoria to High Island and lifting northward. Local radars show light rain and drizzle along and ahead of this feature over much of the central part of SE TX.

Will see a fairly rapid warm up even with the clouds and drizzle today as the warm front advances northward across the region. Strong warm air advection regime will onset late this afternoon and continue into Saturday with a few fast moving showers in the strong southerly flow. High temperatures on Saturday will likely reach to near 80 or right at record levels before the bottom falls out Saturday night. Some raw GFS and NAM guidance is showing low to mid 80’s, but this would only be reachable if the clouds broke up some…which is possible.

Long awaited arctic boundary blasts across the region Saturday night with major temperature falls. Highs Saturday around 80 will tumble to below freezing by Sunday morning from College Station (78/29) over toward Huntsville and into the mid/upper 30’s across areas N of US 59 and low 40’s along the coast. Very strong north winds of 25-35mph with gust to over 40mph will drive wind chills well into the 10’s by Sunday morning. Think some areas will struggle to even reach 40 on Sunday and temperatures may actually continue to fall through much of the day.

Gale Watch is up for all the coastal waters from Saturday night into Sunday and marine conditions will become very dangerous with frequent 40-45mph gusts post front across all waters. Will almost certainly need to upgrade the watch to a warning on Saturday.

Next question is just how cold Monday morning. Appears the intensity of this arctic air mass is stronger and drier which should help scour out those pesky low clouds by Sunday afternoon/evening. Axis of the arctic surface high is still well N of SE TX Sunday night and expect winds will not fully decouple and go calm but remain in the 5-10mph range. Upstream cold air drainage from a very cold N TX with surface temperatures in the 10’s Monday AM would likely still support 20’s across a good portion of SE TX even with winds. For now will go with mid 20’s College Station to Lake Livingston and upper 20’s as far south as US 59. Tuesday morning could feature another freeze in many of those same areas.

Will need to keep an eye on wind chills Monday AM with surface temperatures in the 20’s in many areas and winds still in the 5-10mph range…certainly looking at 10’s on the wind chill chart.

Warm up begins after Tuesday as old arctic surface high shifts eastward and flow returns from the Gulf. Fairly large storm system takes aim at the southern plains for the Christmas weekend period. Impacts at this point are still over a week away…but stay tuned as this active pattern of late continues.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

**THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST**

Here's how I see it... We've hit Blackjack before our dealer shows. If he hits blackjack, we move on to the next round. If he busts or comes up short, we win.

Our weather pattern into late December and January is exactly like this hand. Ridging in the PAC, Ridging in the East. AT WORST, we have seasonal temps in a set up where there is this upper air set up (with Canada ice cold), and we wait for reset. At best, the cold funnels due south with more amplification over the west coast. At second best, the Atlantic relaxes and we get glancing blows.

Regardless, we won't be torched in this pattern, and I really don't see much change in the next 15 days.

[Ntxw]

12z GFS is cold this weekend, still backpedaling any midweek system. Christmas system is there but drier this run. New Year's period (beyond 300hrs) is another system. Most of the run is pretty chilly except for the quick warm ups leading up to frontal passage today, tomorrow and the brief period before Christmas-ish storm. Would be our third below normal December since 2005 verbatim

[ThunderSleetDreams]

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Any warmup is very short lived over the next 15 days. That's what you get with this pattern. As the next front approaches it draws up a brief warm spell and then slapped right back down.

Pretty chilly GFS run. I'll post some ECMWF data later.