Texas Winter 2016-2017

[gpsnowman]

According to the latest NWS graphic, the cold front is already in northern Kansas. Goodland is sitting at 20 degrees. Wondering if it might reach DFW a few hours ahead of time. Hmmmm.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Euro is about 10 degrees colder on Christmas Eve than before. Highs in the low 60s as opposed to 70-75.

Euro is slower with the front. It comes through on the 26th.

[mcheer23]

Euro is about 10 degrees colder on Christmas Eve than before. Highs in the low 60s as opposed to 70-75.

Euro is slower with the front. It comes through on the 26th.

We may be caught in between fronts for christmas...

[Snowman67]

To Ntxw's earlier point - look at the difference in temps between the oklahoma panhandle (70's), and just north of there in Kansas (20' and 30's). Very sharp dividing line.

[Ntxw]

GFS and NAM Mos for DFW is considerably colder than the dynamical OP guidance. 12z NAM Mos has a low of 14F while GFS Mos has a low of 13 both for Monday morning. I don't know if it will quite get that cold. But I wouldn't be surprised if parts of the area is in mid teens, especially if the winds die down.

[Ntxw]

To Ntxw's earlier point - look at the difference in temps between the oklahoma panhandle (70's), and just north of there in Kansas (20' and 30's). Very sharp dividing line.

Yeah, Liberal KS is at 66F. One county up (Haskell county) its in the 20s and low 30s.

[Ralph's Weather]

Amarillo is gonna go from 73 this afternoon to near 0 Sunday morning.

Also this is the first mention of wintery precip by NWS that I can recall this season for my locale.

[gboudx]

Meanwhile, we're still sitting at 46 in Rockwall with a forecast high of 65. Ft. Worth is in the 60's though. Warm front moving through the Metroplex at the moment.

[Ntxw]

Amarillo is gonna go from 73 this afternoon to near 0 Sunday morning.

Also this is the first mention of wintery precip by NWS that I can recall this season for my locale.

Amarillo is reporting blowing dust with wind gusts up to 51mph . Like night and day in 24 hours

[weatherdude1108]

Amarillo is gonna go from 73 this afternoon to near 0 Sunday morning.

Also this is the first mention of wintery precip by NWS that I can recall this season for my locale.

Amarillo is reporting blowing dust with wind gusts up to 51mph . Like night and day in 24 hours

Sounds like Lubbock in the Spring time. I remember walking to class at Tech with my chemistry goggles on during one of the infamous beige-red dust storms. Dust went right through the goggles. I don't miss that! But I do miss the school and nice people up there.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Amarillo is gonna go from 73 this afternoon to near 0 Sunday morning.

Also this is the first mention of wintery precip by NWS that I can recall this season for my locale.

Amarillo is reporting blowing dust with wind gusts up to 51mph . Like night and day in 24 hours

Sounds like Lubbock in the Spring time. I remember walking to class at Tech with my chemistry goggles on during one of the infamous beige-red dust storms. Dust went right through the goggles. I don't miss that! But I do miss the school and nice people up there.

I went to tech as well. I'll never forgot those Lubbock haboobs and how they turned day into night. They always reminded me of those dust storms from the mummy movie. It was horrible if you got caught out in one.

[Ntxw]

NAM looks like frontal passage for DFW tomorrow between 3-5pm near or below freezing by 9pm, which at that point front would be crossing KAUS. If there were flurries or sleet or something of that nature 6-9pm would be the period. Front makes it's way through IAH around midnight tomorrow.

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose:


Bob's Blog on Central Texas Weather

Arctic Cold Will Bring a Hard Freeze to Central Texas Sunday and Monday Mornings.
Friday, December 16, 2016 1:32 PM
​

Today's sky is forecast to remain mostly cloudy as moisture spreads north from the Gulf of Mexico. Today's analysis shows a warm front across the coastal plains region that is slowly moving to the north. Warmer and more humid air will spread north this afternoon and evening behind the warm front. A couple of spotty rain showers will be possible across the coastal plains region this afternoon and evening, but rain amounts should be very low. Today's temperature will be warmer than the past couple of days, with readings climbing to around 68-70 degrees. Expect a south breeze at 10-15 mph. Conditions will be cloudy and quite mild tonight. Low temperatures Saturday morning will be in the mid and upper 50s across the Hill Country, in the mid-60s across Central Texas and around 70 degrees across the coastal plains.

Saturday's weather will start off very summer-like with very mild temperatures and widespread low clouds. However, the clouds should burn off late morning into the early afternoon, giving way to mostly sunny and unseasonably warm conditions. Readings are forecast to climb to around 78-80 degrees across the region. Expect a southwesterly breeze at 10-15 mph.

The arctic cold front is forecast to reach the Texas Panhandle around sunrise Saturday morning. The front should steadily move southeast during the day, reaching the northern Hill Country in the late afternoon. The front is forecast to move across the Austin area around 9 to 10 pm, reaching the coastal plains region just after midnight. No rain is expected with the front when it moves across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions. However, an area of scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the cold front as it pushes south of Interstate 10. The rain should end shortly behind the cold front, with rain amounts averaging around a quarter inch.

The biggest news will be the windy conditions and the rapidly falling temperatures behind the cold front. Readings in the 60s will quickly fall into the 40s and 30s. Expect a northwesterly wind at 15-25 mph with occasional gusts to 35 mph. Readings are forecast to fall well below freezing across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions after midnight Saturday night. Low temperatures Sunday morning will include the low 20s across the Hill Country, the mid and upper 20s across Central Texas with low to middle 30s across the coastal plains region.

Sunday's weather is shaping up to be mostly sunny, windy and quite cold. Expect a northerly wind at 15-25 mph through late afternoon. Temperatures are only forecast to reach the middle 30s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions with low 40s across the coastal plains. The combination of the cold temperatures and strong winds will produce wind chill readings of around 10-15 degrees.

Very cold temperatures are forecast Sunday night as wind speeds decease to around 5-10 mph and the sky stays clear. A long-duration hard freeze is forecast across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions. Low temperatures Monday morning are forecast to fall to around 15-20 degrees across the Hill Country. Lower 20s are forecast across most of Central Texas although the Austin metro area will likely only see mid-20s. Temperatures are forecast to fall to freezing by about 6 pm Sunday and remain below freezing until about mid-morning on Monday. Based on this, folks should expect about 15 hours with temperatures at or below freezing. Across the coastal plains region, readings are forecast to fall to the upper 20s as far south as the Highway 59 corridor, with lower 30s expected to the south of that.

Mostly sunny and cold weather will continue Monday with high temperatures around 40 degrees. Mid-40s are forecast towards the coast.

Another hard freeze is forecast Monday night for the Hill Country and Central Texas regions. Low temperatures Tuesday morning are forecast to be in the mid-20s across the Hill Country with upper 20s across most of Central Texas. Readings are forecast to reach the low and mid-30s across the coastal plains. The freeze duration Monday night is forecast to somewhere around 8-12 hours.

Tuesday's weather should be mostly sunny and slightly warmer with high temperatures in the low 50s. Low temperatures Wednesday morning will include the low 30s across the Hill Country, the mid 30s across Central Texas and be around 40 degrees across the coastal plains.

Wednesday's weather looks to be mostly sunny and warmer with a high temperature around 60 degrees.

Today's forecast data calls for a weak cold front to move across the area next Thursday. However, no rain is expected with the front and temperatures behind the front shouldn't be much cooler. High temperatures Thursday and Friday are forecast to be around 60-62 degrees. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the 40s. A big warm-up is forecast next Saturday with readings climbing into the 70s.

Looking ahead to Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, the latest forecast data calls for a storm system to track into Texas out of northern Mexico during this period. Scattered showers appear possible Saturday but the rain should clear out Christmas Day. High temperatures Christmas Day are forecast to be in the 60s. Do take this outlook as guidance only. The solutions will likely change some in the coming days. I can boldly state that the probability for a White Christmas in Central Texas this year looks very, very remote.

Have a good weekend and stay warm.

Bob

http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx

[aggiecutter]

NWS forecast for Texarkana for Saturday Night:

Saturday NightA chance of rain showers before midnight, then patchy rain, snow, and freezing drizzle. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25

[Ntxw]

This arctic front really intrigues me in that the HP up in Montana is merely 1035mb ish. But when it settles in Oklahoma and TX it grows to about 1045mb with 1040mb+ well into NTX. To get DFW to stay in the 20s for highs without snow or ice on the ground is no easy task but that could happen Sunday. Source region matters I guess.

[Brent]

Here in Wylie it's 4pm in the afternoon and still foggy and dreary the 70s are a pipe dream lol

[Ntxw]

Here in Wylie it's 4pm in the afternoon and still foggy and dreary the 70s are a pipe dream lol

Eastern Dallas and Collin counties have held onto low clouds longer, stubborn. Might make a run at 70 tomorrow but if front is a little faster, might come up just short

[Ntxw]

Front barely registers a blip in Atlanta Sun-Mon. SE ridge magic

Saturday Night: A 50 percent chance of showers, mainly after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a steady temperature around 64. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Sunday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 60. South wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Sunday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37. Northwest wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph.

Monday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 47.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39.

Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 50.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 39.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 56.

[weatherdude1108]

Front barely registers a blip in Atlanta Sun-Mon. SE ridge magic

Saturday Night: A 50 percent chance of showers, mainly after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a steady temperature around 64. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Sunday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 60. South wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Sunday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37. Northwest wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph.

Monday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 47.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39.

Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 50.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 39.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 56.

Yeah, Miami is not even getting in on it. Gets that's where the warm mongers are going.

Tonight
A 20 percent chance of showers after 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74. East wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.

Saturday
A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 80. Southeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Saturday NightA 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 76. Southeast wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Sunday
A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. Breezy, with a southeast wind 14 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.

Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 76. Southeast wind 9 to 13 mph.

Monday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 82. East wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.

Monday Night
A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. East wind around 11 mph.

Tuesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 81. East wind 10 to 13 mph.

Tuesday Night
A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. East wind 9 to 11 mph.

Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 80.

Wednesday Night
A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 71.

Thursday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 79.

Thursday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 69.

Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 79.

[Ntxw]

18z GFS looks like a seasonably chilly Christmas day with a 1050+ HP in Montana that evening. Compared to Euro with a cutoff low in the four corners, while GFS Parallel had us on the fringes of a ridge and warm.