Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Ntxw]

Was talking about Liberal KS earlier, looks like front has went by. 72 to 46

[ronyan]

It looks like Amarillo will go from 74F today to near 0F Sunday morning.

[EtoileTX]

Guymon Oklahoma 73. Less than 40 miles north 38 in Hugoton Kansas.

[Ntxw]

Guymon Oklahoma 73. Less than 40 miles north 38 in Hugoton Kansas.

Pretty dramatic, and I see it is your first post! Welcome

[ronyan]

The front just went through Turpin, OK. A station there measured a 35F drop in one hour.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-w ... I2#history

[EtoileTX]

Guymon Oklahoma 73. Less than 40 miles north 38 in Hugoton Kansas.

Pretty dramatic, and I see it is your first post! Welcome

Thanks! I've been reading this forum for several years. I've always been fascinated with weather.

[TheAustinMan]

Three hour temperature change map from the Oklahoma mesonet:

[Ntxw]

HRRR is a little faster with the front tomorrow. Would cross the northern counties of DFW around Noon. Much faster compared to the GFS which says it will be in southern Oklahoma

[gboudx]

I'm inclined to go with the HRRR. These air masses almost always outperform the model forecast. It would be interesting to see where the HRRR had it as of where it is now to compare.

[Ntxw]

I'm inclined to go with the HRRR. These air masses almost always outperform the model forecast. It would be interesting to see where the HRRR had it as of where it is now to compare.

Both are doing pretty well right now. Frontogenesis occurred in SW Kansas/NW Oklahoma. Once the front picks up steam in a few hours is when the guidance begins to diverge. Next marker at 9pm will give us a little more clue.

From earlier posted by TheAustinMan, Oklahoma mesonet really does show well how more defined the front has become

[Snowman67]

Guymon Oklahoma 73. Less than 40 miles north 38 in Hugoton Kansas.

Welcome to the board. Just checked a weather station in/near Guymon, OK and it read 35F. What a drop.

[starsfan65]

The front has already into the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles.

[Ntxw]

FW AFD offered a little excerpt on front passage about an hour earlier

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
658 PM CST Fri Dec 16 2016

.AVIATION...
The low cloud deck that was in place through early afternoon had
pushed just east of all TAF sites as of 6 PM. The southwesterly
component of a developing 40 knot low level jet should keep the
low cloud deck from making much westward progress overnight but
some MVFR ceilings will be possible at all TAF sites after sunrise
Saturday. Any low clouds that do move in will lift through the
morning as drier air mixes down ahead of an approaching cold
front.

The cold front will likely reach the Metroplex TAF sites between
19Z and 21Z and Waco between 21Z and 23Z, which is a few hours
faster than most model guidance. FROPA times may even need to be
bumped up a bit more if the front maintains its current speed
through the Central Plains. Southerly winds between 12 and 15
knots ahead of the front will turn to the west just ahead of the
front late morning Saturday and northwest behind the front. Wind
speeds between 20 and 25 knots are likely behind the front with
some gusts in excess of 30 knots.

Precipitation chances behind the front are extremely low so will
not mention at this time. However, some post frontal stratus is
possible, especially Saturday night.

[starsfan65]

FW AFD offered a little excerpt on front passage about an hour earlier

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
658 PM CST Fri Dec 16 2016

.AVIATION...
The low cloud deck that was in place through early afternoon had
pushed just east of all TAF sites as of 6 PM. The southwesterly
component of a developing 40 knot low level jet should keep the
low cloud deck from making much westward progress overnight but
some MVFR ceilings will be possible at all TAF sites after sunrise
Saturday. Any low clouds that do move in will lift through the
morning as drier air mixes down ahead of an approaching cold
front.

The cold front will likely reach the Metroplex TAF sites between
19Z and 21Z and Waco between 21Z and 23Z, which is a few hours
faster than most model guidance. FROPA times may even need to be
bumped up a bit more if the front maintains its current speed
through the Central Plains. Southerly winds between 12 and 15
knots ahead of the front will turn to the west just ahead of the
front late morning Saturday and northwest behind the front. Wind
speeds between 20 and 25 knots are likely behind the front with
some gusts in excess of 30 knots.

Precipitation chances behind the front are extremely low so will
not mention at this time. However, some post frontal stratus is
possible, especially Saturday night.

That's between 1 pm and 3 pm.

[Portastorm]

The front has already into the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles.

Well, just barely ... at 8 pm it just went through Perryton who dropped from 68 at 7 pm to 38 at 8 pm. All other Texas Panhandle TAF METARs indicate temps in 60s. But not for long.

[Ntxw]

I am still quite befuddled how relatively wimpy the high pressures are in Canada and northern plains/Rockies. Even though at the surface it is quite frigid. These temperatures are comparable to the outbreak we had in December 2013 (minus the ice) yet the upper and surface features are hardly notable.

[starsfan65]

I am still quite befuddled how relatively wimpy the high pressures are in Canada and northern plains/Rockies. Even though at the surface it is quite frigid. These temperatures are comparable to the outbreak we had in December 2013 (minus the ice) yet the upper and surface features are hardly notable.

Where is the front now?

[Snowman67]

Some mighty cold air up north. Currently -26F at Shelby Montana (just SE of Cut Bank).

[Ntxw]

Where is the front now?

Near Watonga, Oklahoma

[starsfan65]

Where is the front now?

Near Watonga, Oklahoma

That's near Oklahoma city.