Texas Winter 2016-2017

[gpsnowman]

That's closing in on OKC. Definitely waking early tomorrow to start tracking the arrival. Fun times.

[starsfan65]

:uarrow: That's closing in on OKC. Definitely waking early tomorrow to start tracking the arrival. Fun times.

Yep

[starsfan65]

what is the time frame for the cold front to hit DFW?

[Snowman67]

what is the time frame for the cold front to hit DFW?

This snippet from the NWS in Fort Worth - The cold front will likely reach the Metroplex TAF sites between
19Z and 21Z and Waco between 21Z and 23Z, which is a few hours
faster than most model guidance.

19Z would be 1:00PM CST.

[starsfan65]

what is the time frame for the cold front to hit DFW?

This snippet from the NWS in Fort Worth - The cold front will likely reach the Metroplex TAF sites between
19Z and 21Z and Waco between 21Z and 23Z, which is a few hours
faster than most model guidance.

19Z would be 1:00PM CST.

Don't be surprised it comes at Noon.

[JDawg512]

It would be more exciting if we had some nice rain ahead of it. I'm not liking these successive dry cold fronts. We need more rainfall before the end of the year to keep the soil moisture from decreasing.

[Ntxw]

0z GFS looks like it wants to pull a Christmas 2012 at 500mb. Might not make it at the surface but I do remember following those charts back then





That said, it is yet another solution for the same system it's been trying to predict.

[Snowman67]

Front moving through Okarche, OK currently. Winds have shifted to the north. Following the front live on Wundermap (on Weather Underground website). The actual depiction of the front on the map is a little behind the actual placement, but you can bring up the current temps/wind speed/direction for all of the sites and keep track of the front.

[starsfan65]

Front moving through Okarche, OK currently. Winds have shifted to the north. Following the front live on Wundermap (on Weather Underground website). The actual depiction of the front on the map is a little behind the actual placement, but you can bring up the current temps/wind speed/direction for all of the sites and keep track of the front.

Where is Okarche?

[Ntxw]

Where is Okarche?

Just north of El Reno which is a suburb of OKC

[Brent]

In other news 0z GFS is dry and cold Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Lows in the 20s/30s, highs mostly 40s. Big storm east of us.

[Snowman67]

Where is Okarche?

Just north of El Reno which is a suburb of OKC

Yup. Front moving through northern part of OKC now.

[A.V.]

Those are good reasons why it may not get THAT cold in general. But we're still looking for numbers and your specific thoughts on this blast since you referenced this specific outbreak against professional meteorologists and local WFO forecasts. Sounds like a Houston freeze may be what you are looking for then from your posts? "Epically fail" does not help a reader here who is uninformed and does not have ability to forecast. When you make such a claim often you will be asked to clarify what it is that you see. For example if lack of snow cover is the case, then please reference that with the projected temperatures along with a model of your choice or NWS forecast projecting your thoughts for that specific event.

Otherwise just hyperbole does not add much to the discussion without backing of sound data.

Now is also a good time as a reminder for all to read the storm2k Rules and Guidelines.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=37&t=87189

Repetitive posts in multiple threads is not welcome here. The discussion on this matter will end here effective immediately.

Fair enough.

[A.V.]

That jives with the +AO currently in existence. But we're getting cold because of ridging in the GOA and a very cold Canada. This type of cold coming this weekend you would typically not associate with the run of the mill 1030s HP. It's going to torch in the southeast and east coast because of it though for sure.

Less of an effect on us.. much more of an effect on the East Coast where most of those guys reside.

The massive expanse of cold in Canada and ridging off the West Coast will serve us fine as it bleeds down.

Keep in mind the post referred to an upcoming zonal pattern, meaning less of the amplification needed for the necessary cold.

GFS Ensemble from post-Christmas day to New Year's Eve:


January:
 https://twitter.com/GenscapeWx/status/809764323765657601

[starsfan65]

The front is moving into OKC right now.

[Golf7070]

@RyanMaue: Hmmm ... polar vortex has two eyes on Christmas Eve ... and a big lobe over center of US https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/809 ... 92/photo/1
Shared via TweetCaster

What are yalls thoughts?
He just posted that

[ThunderSleetDreams]

That jives with the +AO currently in existence. But we're getting cold because of ridging in the GOA and a very cold Canada. This type of cold coming this weekend you would typically not associate with the run of the mill 1030s HP. It's going to torch in the southeast and east coast because of it though for sure.

Less of an effect on us.. much more of an effect on the East Coast where most of those guys reside.

The massive expanse of cold in Canada and ridging off the West Coast will serve us fine as it bleeds down.

Keep in mind the post referred to an upcoming zonal pattern, meaning less of the amplification needed for the necessary cold.

GFS Ensemble from post-Christmas day to New Year's Eve:


January:
 https://twitter.com/GenscapeWx/status/809764323765657601

That was two runs ago post Christmas which has nothing to do with what you were arguing. By the way, that forecast has flipped on its head...

[Brent]

It's hard for me to trust a forecast in January when it's been a struggle to forecast the next day like today was... Even next weekend for Christmas I'm not ruling out anything yet. One thing we haven't been doing lately is overperforming on warmth... most days have been colder than forecast.

Still think the wind chills near zero in DFW are going to bust btw? Afterall this was supposed to be a normal old front according to some posts in here, not the coldest in 2 years...

[Brent]

Euro pretty benign after the front

DFW Monday upper 30s, Tuesday Low 50s Wednesday Low/Mid 60s Thursday/Friday Low 50s. No rain through next Friday.

Christmas Eve high near 50, very progressive system passes by with no rain.

Christmas Day, low in the mid 30s. Highs in the 40s. Dry. Some light rain Christmas night into the day after.

[A.V.]

That was two runs ago post Christmas which has nothing to do with what you were arguing. By the way, that forecast has flipped on its head...

I've already resolved that initial argument (with ntxw). These maps show much of Texas under the same warm-ridge the rest of the Eastern US will be come January (contrary to the claim that East Coast atmospheric patterns have no effect on Texas). And really, much of eastern/coastal Texas follows the east in regards to these weather patterns; places like Dallas, Austin, and other cities farther west in Texas are more susceptible to the Pacific signals. Of course, in the end, it all depends on the particular angles/configurations of such patterns, but what I said still stands.

The model can flip all it likes; more often than not, mildness/warmth is favored.