Texas Winter 2016-2017

[BigB0882]

December 29th

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... cus_43.png

I would love for this to happen! We will be in Eureka Springs, Arkansas from the 26th to the 30th.

[Lagreeneyes03]

12z GFS has the Christmas system but it looks a bit different. It brings out the cutoff low (that was supposed to be midweek system but backpedaled). Looks like its going to be a wet run with the two jets phasing.

The disturbance that will bring the Christmas weather is over Siberia and not expected to really organize until it exits the NW Pacific near Kamchatka around Tuesday/Wednesday. I expected a tremendous amount of volatility among the deterministic and ensemble guidance until later next week. There is a strong wave break coming in the upper atmosphere across the Northern Pacific. That said I will not be surprised to see a very potent Winter Storm with both warm and cold sector weather worries during the busy Christmas Holiday period.

So we may be doing one of two things, hearing severe weather sirens, or stocking up on bread, milk and eggs for a snow/ice event. Either way will be something to watch!.

[CentralTxAggie]

topped out at 35 here in South Austin

[Portastorm]

topped out at 35 here in South Austin

Yeah so far I've topped out at 36 degrees (current) and my low was 26. Have my outdoor temp sensor facing north and about 7-8 feet off the ground and under an overhang. I seem to run a wee bit warmer than some other Weather Underground stations around me but my temps match the local, close-by LCRA gauge so I guess I'm not too far off.

[Brent]

Haven't seen anything higher than 26 here I'm expecting to get close to single digits since it was 14 this morning

[vbhoutex]

31f at the vbhoutex abode in Houston this morning!! Feels like 20f!!

Managed a steaming 37f high today. Now on the way back down. Sky is clearing, winds are relaxing. High 20s in the city seems probable with mid 20s a possibility. This will be the coldest we have been in about 2 years. Yes I know it didn't get above freezing in the DFW area.

[Ntxw]

18z GFS continuing trend of bringing out the baja low with northern stream phasing. If that happens, going to be a monster storm linked to both polar and subtropical jet on Christmas.

As for temps its looking like single digits could make an appearance for some in NTX

[Ralph's Weather]

It was still 28 when we left my parents a bit ago out in far north Smith County. 30 here in Hideaway was 21 this morning. Wonder how deep into the teens we go tonight.

[STX Expat]

Here you go, a photo of this morning's snow gathered at the edge of a parking lot at our church.

Also, one of my friends in Pottsboro reported light snow at his house on and off for a couple of hours. With the steam and clouds he kept observing over Lake Texoma, he wondered if there might have even been a little lake effect snow this morning.

https://scontent-lax3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/ ... e=58EE55E7]

I would be willing to wager it was indeed lake effects. I was outside at around around 3:oo-3:30 am this morning and there were flakes flying around with sparse intermittent cloud cover.

If the Christmas storm verifies I'll be thrilled for y'all but devastated in that I'll be traveling to San Antonio for the holidays. I've never in all my years experienced a White Christmas and to just miss in my fourth winter here would be heartbreaking...

[Golf7070]

Ntxw ， do we want a subtle shift right with trough for us to see some better chances of snow/ice sleet? What are chances that happens?

[mcheer23]

18z GFS has the cold front coming through 12z on the 26th (Houston)

That means a warm Christmas.

Here is to hoping the front comes through before that.

[Brent]

GFS looks more like a stormy Christmas than a white one needs to be considerably further south for DFW

[TheProfessor]

Ah, it was a nice day today. Almost got too warm in my sweatshirt thought. Need to find something more in between.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Is the GFS initializing well? If you look at the analysis 6 hours ago, then at hour 0 and the temps are MUCH warmer at hour 0. Check out the plains and Minnesota at the 0 hour compared to 6 hours before, big difference.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Haven't posted much this winter thus far due to obviously having not much to talk about. But what a slap in the face we had today by the big tease herself, mother nature. Made it up to 40 earlier this morning then slowly dropped and stayed between 37-39 throughout the day with rain on and off almost all day. Sure felt like it should have been snowing but that's how our luck goes down here. Have an 80% of rain showers mixed with sleet for tonight but I don't see it happening, radar is drying up and everything is pushing east.

[wxman57]

18z GFS has the cold front coming through 12z on the 26th (Houston)

That means a warm Christmas.

Here is to hoping the front comes through before that.

18Z Parallel GFS has the front coming through Houston closer to 2pm on the 25th, but still has us in the mid 70s by noon. Can't ask for much better than that.

[aggiecutter]

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 20m20 minutes ago
I'm bored Tweeting about the cold weather and polar vortexes. Anything else going on?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

18z GFS has the cold front coming through 12z on the 26th (Houston)

That means a warm Christmas.

Here is to hoping the front comes through before that.

18Z Parallel GFS has the front coming through Houston closer to 2pm on the 25th, but still has us in the mid 70s by noon. Can't ask for much better than that.

That's disgusting weather on Christmas and perfect weather in September.

[Brent]

Steve McCauley replied to a comment on his Facebook asking about a white Christmas in the metroplex and he said "not here"

[Brent]

The Christmas storm is becoming a lost cause on the GFS... it's halfway to Canada already on this run.