Florida Weather

[psyclone]

Front is slowing down but still packing a punch as it enters the panhandle...Pensacola went from 79 to 59 in one hour. Meanwhile Jackson MS is sitting at 32 while Corpus Christi TX is 39 after a high yesterday of 88.

[gatorcane]

Both the ECMWF and GFS parallel are now showing much below normal temps for Florida days 8-10. GFS below:

https://s28.postimg.org/t0vvszdvh/gfsp_T2m_eus_41.png

Euro already dropped that forecast, that was quick.

Yep and as of the 12Z run which is about ready to finish out through 216 hours shows the SE ridge building as strong as ever! Looks like Florida will be stuck in quasi-summer mode the rest of this month of it verifies. Hey can't complain, thought about hitting the beach today but looks like plenty of opportunities the rest of this month...

[psyclone]

last year smashed the record for the warmest Christmas at Tampa by 3 degrees (86) so this year is certain to be more reasonable. Now Christmas day is showing on the NWS forecasts and it looks like upper 70's to low 80's will be common in central Florida....well above normal but far under last year's ridiculous temps. Actually it sounds really nice.

[NDG]

Heat ridge is not going anywhere.
Christmas day:

[Patrick99]

I should also note, for SFL to get truly cold, the trajectory of the Arctic air mass needs to be just right, too. You need that cold, strong NNW flow right down the spine of the state to hold off the moderating effects of the ocean for a few nights. If it ends up coming in due north or worse yet, a little bit NNE, forget about it. If there's too much of a NW flow, then there's too much Gulf influence. It needs to be right down the landmass.

[psyclone]

North Florida has a Texas-sized temp spread with 75 at Gainesville and upper 30's in the western panhandle...the front is clearly visible on satellite slowly sagging southeast in the Gulf. Hoping it can knock a few degrees off of our temps and especially dewpoints which are...not conducive to holiday cooking/baking...For the 2nd day in a row KTPA registered a low of 72...which is 18 degrees above normal and happens to match the normal high.

[Macrocane]

That ridge is frustrating.
Does anyone remember a similar pattern in winter lasting for so long? were January and February better?

[psyclone]

Last year. Freakish heat in November and December (worse than this year). It ended right as we turned the calendar to January with both January and February much cooler.

[Macrocane]

Yeah I thought about last year but the anomalous heat was more widespread, this time is focused on Florida, the Caribbean and Central America.

[gatorcane]

Just took a look at temps across the country. Looks like just about everybody is in the freeze box except Central and South Florida where temps are in the mid 70s. Water temp off SE Florida in Palm Beach County is just below 80F so good swimming temps...today featured a summery looks with east to southeast winds at 10-15 and plenty of sunshine with cumulus pushing west away from the coast....and more good beach weather on tap rest of the week.

[psyclone]

You know it's a bit up there when the prospect of sub-70 degree dewpoints are worthy of celebration. we should get that in central florida tomorrow. Per the CPC 6-10 day outlook...Florida looks Quiznos toasty through the period... the Christmas to New Year's period may be almost as anomalous as last year.

[NDG]

The one thing that could make the rest of this meteorological winter warmer than last year is that we are in a weak La Niña pattern which tends to enhance the subtropical ridge across the southern US, with a mostly neutral NAO & neutral to negative PNA it puts the ridge right on top of FL instead of further west or east.

[northjaxpro]

The one thing that could make the rest of this meteorological winter warmer than last year is that we are in a weak La Niña pattern which tends to enhance the subtropical ridge across the southern US, with a mostly neutral NAO & neutral to negative PNA it puts the ridge right on top of FL instead of further west or east.

Yes that is right NDG. Cold shots will be extremely few and far between this season in Florida and Southeast CONUS if this current pattern continues the next 6 weeks. We may not have a winter season much at all in our area. Just one freeze recorded here at my locale on November 21.

[Patrick99]

That ridge is frustrating.
Does anyone remember a similar pattern in winter lasting for so long? were January and February better?

It's been similar to this for the past several winters. After the twin cold months of January 2010 and December 2010, it's been like someone flipped on a heat lamp.

[Patrick99]

Just took a look at temps across the country. Looks like just about everybody is in the freeze box except Central and South Florida where temps are in the mid 70s. Water temp off SE Florida in Palm Beach County is just below 80F so good swimming temps...today featured a summery looks with east to southeast winds at 10-15 and plenty of sunshine with cumulus pushing west away from the coast....and more good beach weather on tap rest of the week.

Very summery indeed. It looks like there may be little or no break to this, all the way to New Year's Day and perhaps beyond.

[otowntiger]

Just took a look at temps across the country. Looks like just about everybody is in the freeze box except Central and South Florida where temps are in the mid 70s. Water temp off SE Florida in Palm Beach County is just below 80F so good swimming temps...today featured a summery looks with east to southeast winds at 10-15 and plenty of sunshine with cumulus pushing west away from the coast....and more good beach weather on tap rest of the week.

Very summery indeed. It looks like there may be little or no break to this, all the way to New Year's Day and perhaps beyond.

[psyclone]

the CPC outlooks have gotten WARMER...with the 6-10 day now maxed out over the Florida peninsula and the warm anomalies on the 8-14 day outlook have dramatically expanded northward and westward...it is conceivable that our persistent warmth may only be punctuated by an episode (again) of record warmth...extraordinary. At least it was much nicer today over central florida with temps in the 70's and dewpoints in the 60's...a dramatic improvement that feels downright pleasant.

[HURRICANELONNY]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /nao.shtml

I think Jan will come in norm to cool

[Patrick99]

Slight cooldown this morning......far from "cold" at 71 degrees and dewpoint 67, but compared to what we've been having, it feels great. I will sweat less today.

[gatorcane]

The global models might just be detecting a pattern change come end of month and into early Jan. For example, the long-range ECMWF and GFS below: