Texas Winter 2016-2017

[tolakram]

Still a fail. This arctic mass, which brought intense, record breaking cold to the Midwest (once in a lifetime), and was basically a direct shot into Texas, could barely drop Houston to freezing levels; Galveston, Lake Jackson, etc still remain without a freeze. Once December passes, the axis of cold shifts east, and the arctic blasts won't be Texas centered. On top of that, a warm pattern commences. Thus, this looks like it will be the last cold blast of this caliber for the season. Even with this cold, temps still haven't been below 30F; Houston is about to have another zone 10 winter.

I'm trying to understand where you get this fail from.

Forecast discussion from Houston/Galveston

Wednesday Dec 14th

Will see below normal temps Sun-Tue with max temps expected to
remain in the 40s. Monday morning should be the coldest morning of
this period with min temps in the mid/upper 20s across northern
areas and a freeze likely as far south as around I-10. Another
storm system will approach from the west at the end of the fcst pd
and provide another chance of rain by next Wednesday.



Friday Dec 16th at 4AM

... Timing of the cold frontal passage has not changed much between
forecast models. Front should be reaching College Station to
Crockett around 9PM Saturday night, Houston by midnight, and well
off the coast by 3AM Sunday. Temperatures will be tanking the
whole night and by tanking, a good 35 to 40 degree drop in 12
hours. Houston will go from a high temperature Saturday near 80F
to a low temperature Sunday near 37F. College Station could drop
to just below freezing Sunday morning. We will need to evaluate
which counties have already had a freeze but look for a freeze
warning for possibly some of the area Sunday morning and then a
larger area Monday morning. Areas south of I-10 could potentially
experience temperatures just below freeze for an hour or two
Monday morning. Winds are also going to be quite strong behind the
front so look for a wind advisory for much of the area. Wind chill
readings will also drop into the 20s and perhaps teens....

Saturday the 17th the discussion changed to a little colder

...While
thermometers may read 32 F or slightly below...overcast and gusty
post-frontal north winds will preclude any significant impact from
these short-lived Sunday morning sub-freezing readings. If anything
..two of the four P`s need to be heeded the most...People and
Pets. Morning wind chills in the upper teens (northern counties)
to middle 20s (coast) will require the appropriate clothing to
keep one warm and to place those furry family members indoors....


Actual temps at Houston Hobby Airport

19 08:53 N 16 G 22 10.00 Mostly Cloudy BKN090 BKN250 35 16 46% 25 NA 30.61 1037.0
19 07:53 N 13 G 22 10.00 Partly Cloudy SCT090 SCT250 32 16 52% 22 NA 30.60 1036.6
19 06:53 N 18 10.00 Overcast OVC090 32 17 54% 21 NA 30.58 1036.1

GB Interc airport

19 06:53 N 14 10.00 A Few Clouds FEW100 30 17 58% 19 NA 30.60 1036.4

Conroe, Montgomery County Airport

19 06:53 N 8 10.00 Mostly Cloudy BKN085 28 15 58% 20 NA 30.61 1036.5

And how about College Station?

19 05:53 N 13 10.00 Fair CLR 23 14 27 23 68% 11 NA 30.64 1037.8

So what was the fail? Looks to me like the forecast was pretty much nailed from 4 to 5 days out and maybe too warm.

edit: College Station actually dropped to 27 Sunday morning, colder than the 'just below freezing' that was expected.

[orangeblood]

You're calling a winter cancel before the Winter Solstice. You dont expect anyone to take you seriously do you?

It was a direct shot with an average HP, crossed at 1035 MB. Galveston and areas along the coast would take a truly potent HP to drop them to freezing, the Gulf SST is still WELL above normal. Shifted east? With a -EPO? Nah. I predict 3 more freezes here in Houston, wouldnt say thats a 'zone 10 winter'

That 'average HP' brought legendary cold to the Midwest, and even gave Dallas a sub 30F day. Even South Texas, nearly in the tropics, is seeing a sub 50F day. This was a powerful arctic blast aimed straight at Texas, and Houston still barely dropped below freezing; true cold just isn't happening. Other arctic blasts this season won't be as centered on Texas, as you can see with the map I posted; thus, the blasts won't be as direct, and temps will be warmer. It doesn't matter if the solstice hasn't happened yet, the meteorlogical patterns don't necessarily follow; I thought weather experts agreed on that distinction.

Even if Houston sees 3 more freezes, if there are no temps below 30F, then the winter is Zone 10.

Sorry A.V. but your baseless claims are getting old around here...even the map you posted doesn't back up your claim - Houston's coldest time of the year is around Jan 5-15th and we aren't even to Dec. 20th yet!!!

[davidiowx]

You're calling a winter cancel before the Winter Solstice. You dont expect anyone to take you seriously do you?

It was a direct shot with an average HP, crossed at 1035 MB. Galveston and areas along the coast would take a truly potent HP to drop them to freezing, the Gulf SST is still WELL above normal. Shifted east? With a -EPO? Nah. I predict 3 more freezes here in Houston, wouldnt say thats a 'zone 10 winter'

That 'average HP' brought legendary cold to the Midwest, and even gave Dallas a sub 30F day. Even South Texas, nearly in the tropics, is seeing a sub 50F day. This was a powerful arctic blast aimed straight at Texas, and Houston still barely dropped below freezing; true cold just isn't happening. Other arctic blasts this season won't be as centered on Texas, as you can see with the map I posted; thus, the blasts won't be as direct, and temps will be warmer. It doesn't matter if the solstice hasn't happened yet, the meteorlogical patterns don't necessarily follow; I thought weather experts agreed on that distinction.

Even if Houston sees 3 more freezes, if there are no temps below 30F, then the winter is Zone 10.

Sorry A.V. but your baseless claims are getting old around here...even the map you posted doesn't back up your claim - Houston's coldest time of the year is around Jan 5-15th and we aren't even to Dec. 20th yet!!!

Trolls are gonna troll. He/she floods the KHOU forum with nonsense as well. Though I haven't seen he/she over there in 2 or so days.

[Portastorm]

IMPORTANT

Let's be careful in our comments about other posters here. Trust me, your Storm2K admins and moderators are watching today's "dialogue" very, very closely. We're a gracious bunch this holiday season and believe in giving ALL members the benefit of the doubt. But we also will enforce our rules. Warnings to various members have already been issued. Dialogue and debate are fine as long as it's done with respect and with support of statement/claims. However, the amount of baseless claims made today have reached the limit and will not be allowed any further.

So let's get back to our winter weather discussion. Thank you.

[Ntxw]

12z euro long range (usual caveats apply) is seeing the cold pool to be developed in Alaska and W Canada as has been seen by ensembles. The forecast period for any movement to the south is well beyond, if it even does while the cold over the lower 48 relaxes as we turn the Calendar. The west and at times the plains could be effected by a very active Pacific storm train

[Brent]

Weatherbug has a "frozen mix" on Wednesday December 28th with a low of 43 and a high of 54...

[A.V.]

So what was the fail? Looks to me like the forecast was pretty much nailed from 4 to 5 days out and maybe too warm.

edit: College Station actually dropped to 27 Sunday morning, colder than the 'just below freezing' that was expected.

That an earth-shattering, record breaking cold airmass for the Midwest, aimed straight at Texas, barely gave a freeze to Houston. Most other arctic fronts won't be near as Texas centric, nor as powerful, so low temps in Houston can be warmer.

[A.V.]

Sorry A.V. but your baseless claims are getting old around here...even the map you posted doesn't back up your claim - Houston's coldest time of the year is around Jan 5-15th and we aren't even to Dec. 20th yet!!!

I already accounted for that; January is typically the only winter month in Houston that is reliable for cold in its entirety. December and February only have part of their months in the window (latter and early parts, respectively). The map only shows typical trends/likelihoods.

This cold came earlier compared to many other Decembers. At the same time, a warm pattern is commencing, which will take us through the first half of January, according to many model runs. Thus, the cold time for Houston is taken up by warmth, and when the warmth ends, any following cold shots that come out won't be as powerful (as they all are focused more to the east). If Houston is at/above 30F during all occurences, another Zone 10 winter will be in the books.

[tolakram]

So what was the fail? Looks to me like the forecast was pretty much nailed from 4 to 5 days out and maybe too warm.

edit: College Station actually dropped to 27 Sunday morning, colder than the 'just below freezing' that was expected.

That an earth-shattering, record breaking cold airmass for the Midwest, aimed straight at Texas, barely gave a freeze to Houston. Most other arctic fronts won't be near as Texas centric, nor as powerful, so low temps in Houston can be warmer.

I can find no mention of record breaking freeze other than you mentioning it, and your claim was that the forecast would be an epic fail and would have to be moderated, which it was not.

[TrekkerCC]

Sorry A.V. but your baseless claims are getting old around here...even the map you posted doesn't back up your claim - Houston's coldest time of the year is around Jan 5-15th and we aren't even to Dec. 20th yet!!!

I already accounted for that; January is typically the only winter month in Houston that is reliable for cold in its entirety. December and February only have part of their months in the window (latter and early parts, respectively). The map only shows typical trends/likelihoods.

This cold came earlier compared to many other Decembers. At the same time, a warm pattern is commencing, which will take us through the first half of January, according to many model runs. Thus, the cold time for Houston is taken up by warmth, and when the warmth ends, any following cold shots that come out won't be as powerful (as they all are focused more to the east). If Houston is at/above 30F during all occurences, another Zone 10 winter will be in the books.

I would not despair yet about winter yet. We can get very cold and anomalous events during the months of January and February. I'm going to focus on the month of February. This is from the perspective of North Texas. Everyone in the DFW area (and maybe elsewhere due to the Superbowl) remembers the ice storm and snow storm before Superbowl Sunday. What was also intense about this multi-day event was the very cold temperatures. I advise you to read the February 2011 review from http://www.weather.gov/fwd/feb2011 . North Texas had multiple days in the teens including a day when the high did not get above 20F! Very cold air. I remember periodic brownouts due to the high level of electricity demand during this period. I'm sure storm2k members to my south can fish out records from Austin, Houston, during the week. It was cold everywhere in Texas. So Texas can get cold in February.

In fact, DFW's all-time record low temperature was recorded in February. Weather history buffs might know about the 1899 arctic outbreak. Where the whole country was under a deep freeze and Ft. Worth (the recording station at the time) had a low temperature of -8F on February 12, 1899! Corpus Christi, TX had a low temperature of 11 and Galveston, TX had a low temperature of 8F. There were ice flows on the Mississippi River due to the intense ("brrrrrrr" inducing) cold. I invite everyone (if you haven't already) to read http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10. ... -0434(1988)003%3C0305%3ATGAOAE%3E2.0.CO%3B2 co-written by Paul Kocin for a overview of the arctic outbreak and East Coast blizzard.

I'm sure others can come up with other very cold arctic outbreaks targeting Texas in January and February throughout history. The main point is that we can have bitter arctic outbreaks even into February. Even if the pattern relaxes a bit during Christmas and afterwards does not mean the winter is over by any means. Sometimes winter seasons are very cold at the beginning and then warms up towards the end of the season, but you have some seasons very cold throughout December, January, and February. In the 1899 outbreak, the cold air did not arrive in just one front, there was a step-down process where a series of arctic air masses invaded the United States. We just don't know yet and given the chaotic atmosphere - we won't know until March.

[weatherdude1108]

Sorry A.V. but your baseless claims are getting old around here...even the map you posted doesn't back up your claim - Houston's coldest time of the year is around Jan 5-15th and we aren't even to Dec. 20th yet!!!

I already accounted for that; January is typically the only winter month in Houston that is reliable for cold in its entirety. December and February only have part of their months in the window (latter and early parts, respectively). The map only shows typical trends/likelihoods.

This cold came earlier compared to many other Decembers. At the same time, a warm pattern is commencing, which will take us through the first half of January, according to many model runs. Thus, the cold time for Houston is taken up by warmth, and when the warmth ends, any following cold shots that come out won't be as powerful (as they all are focused more to the east). If Houston is at/above 30F during all occurences, another Zone 10 winter will be in the books.

I would not despair yet about winter yet. We can get very cold and anomalous events during the months of January and February. I'm going to focus on the month of February. This is from the perspective of North Texas. Everyone in the DFW area (and maybe elsewhere due to the Superbowl) remembers the ice storm and snow storm before Superbowl Sunday. What was also intense about this multi-day event was the very cold temperatures. I advise you to read the February 2011 review from http://www.weather.gov/fwd/feb2011 . North Texas had multiple days in the teens including a day when the high did not get above 20F! Very cold air. I remember periodic brownouts due to the high level of electricity demand during this period. I'm sure storm2k members to my south can fish out records from Austin, Houston, during the week. It was cold everywhere in Texas. So Texas can get cold in February.

In fact, DFW's all-time record low temperature was recorded in February. Weather history buffs might know about the 1899 arctic outbreak. Where the whole country was under a deep freeze and Ft. Worth (the recording station at the time) had a low temperature of -8F on February 12, 1899! Corpus Christi, TX had a low temperature of 11 and Galveston, TX had a low temperature of 8F. There were ice flows on the Mississippi River due to the intense ("brrrrrrr" inducing) cold. I invite everyone (if you haven't already) to read http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10. ... -0434(1988)003%3C0305%3ATGAOAE%3E2.0.CO%3B2 co-written by Paul Kocin for a overview of the arctic outbreak and East Coast blizzard.

I'm sure others can come up with other very cold arctic outbreaks targeting Texas in January and February throughout history. The main point is that we can have bitter arctic outbreaks even into February. Even if the pattern relaxes a bit during Christmas and afterwards does not mean the winter is over by any means. Sometimes winter seasons are very cold at the beginning and then warms up towards the end of the season, but you have some seasons very cold throughout December, January, and February. In the 1899 outbreak, the cold air did not arrive in just one front, there was a step-down process where a series of arctic air masses invaded the United States. We just don't know yet and given the chaotic atmosphere - we won't know until March.

Yeah, there is typically a lag time of one to two months between the Winter Solstice (lowest angle of the sun in a given hemisphere on earth) and when the coldest temperatures of Winter occur.

Most, if not all, of our "inclement weather days" (frozen precip. days) here at the office have come in January and February.

[Brent]

I haven't seen this level of arguing against facts since the last time the president-elect gave a speech.

Yeah, there is typically a lag time of one to two months between the Winter Solstice (lowest angle of the sun in a given hemisphere on earth) and when the coldest temperatures of Winter occur.

Most, if not all, of our "inclement weather days" (frozen precip. days) here at the office have come in January and February.

Yeah, this is about like cancelling hurricane season on June 1st.

[Portastorm]

Alright gang, another rule reminder ...

4. Politics. Political debate and discussion of politics is not allowed on storm2k. We used to have an open forum here for political talk, but it took too much staff time to moderate. We are not allowing political posts of any kind in any of our forums.

[tolakram]

College Station is another example.

2F on Dec 23rd
http://www.weather.gov/hgx/climate_cll_normals_dec

-3F on Jan 31st
http://w2.weather.gov/hgx/climate_cll_normals_jan

5F Feb 2nd
http://w2.weather.gov/hgx/climate_cll_normals_feb


I'm jealous of the nice clickable table the HGX office has.

http://w2.weather.gov/climate/local_data.php?wfo=hgx

[dhweather]

Food for thought.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_of_Houston#Winter

Winters in Houston are relatively mild and temperate compared to most areas of the United States, though Houston does get much colder than places like South Florida and South Texas. Houston is more prone to extreme variation in the winter months than cities like San Diego, California or Tampa, Florida. The average high in January, the coldest month, is 62.9 °F (17.2 °C) and the low 43.2 °F (6.2 °C), George Bush Intercontinental Airport sees an average of 9.6 days per year of freezing temperatures.[1] Cold fronts during the winter drop nighttime lows into the 30s but usually above freezing. The coldest weather of the season often includes a period about three weeks with temperatures in the low 30s to mid-40s at night. Hard freezes occur only uncommonly; however, George Bush Intercontinental Airport has recorded a freeze every winter since it opened in 1969. The coldest temperature ever recorded at George Bush Intercontinental Airport was 7 °F (−14 °C) on December 23, 1989. Elsewhere, the temperature in Houston dropped to 5 °F (−15 °C) on January 18, 1930.[19]

[wxman57]

Weatherbug has a "frozen mix" on Wednesday December 28th with a low of 43 and a high of 54...

I'm sure it's reading raw GFS data - so take that forecast with a grain of salt, so to speak. Current GFS has mild temps across TX on the 28th.

[dhweather]

Weatherbug has a "frozen mix" on Wednesday December 28th with a low of 43 and a high of 54...

I'm sure it's reading raw GFS data - so take that forecast with a grain of salt, so to speak. Current GFS has mild temps across TX on the 28th.

So you are saying that the GFS is mistaking snow for salt?

[wxman57]

I'm dreaming of a warm Christmas, just like the ones I used to know...
Shorts and short-sleeve cycling Jersey for Christmas Day! Can't ask for any better Christmas present! Don't mess with the Heat Miser!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Latest GFS has his location right at those temps.

Houston is mid 40s low to low 60s high.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Depressing Christmas forecast so far the last 4-5 runs.

Here's to that changing as we get closer.