WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

92W INVEST 161219 0600 3.0N 146.1E WPAC 15 1010

[euro6208]

From Luzon to Mindanao, the models indicates a landfall somewhere. NAVGEM has it slowly veering off to the north just east of Luzon. EURO over the Visayas but is the weakest in developing this.

GFS has a TS in 72-96 hours as it affects Palau and Yap and has somewhat a quite intense looking TC making landfall over Northern Leyte on Christmas Eve.

[euro6208]

NWS:

The disturbance southwest of Chuuk will be our main concern for the
next few days. ASCAT analysis indicates a circulation is centered
near 3N147E today. Latest model solutions differ significantly,
with GFS indicating the circulation would pass between Koror and
Yap on Thursday, while ECMWF indicates it would pass closer to
Koror about the same time. At any rate, we expect it to drift
toward northwest and further develop in the coming days. It will
need to be monitored closely. Hazardous sea and surf conditions
are likely for Yap State most of this week, and for the Republic
of Palau on Wednesday and Thursday at least.

[euro6208]

[1900hurricane]

The ASCAT pass from around 00Z showed a sharp wave axis associated with 92W at about 5.5*N, 145.5*E (closeup here). Considering current organization, I'd say chances look good that 2016 can eek out one more storm.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Not so Merry Christmas

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.9N
146.3E, APPROXIMATELY 588 NM SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 200006Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ SATELLITE
IMAGE SHOW A VERY BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
AREAS OF FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. A 192311Z ASCAT PARTIAL
PASS SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH PRIMARILY 5-10 KNOT WINDS, WITH
15 KNOT WINDS LOCATED TO THE NORTH. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN A POOR TO MODERATE ENVIRONMENT FOR CYCLOGENESIS WITH
MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT OFFSET BY
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO
THE NORTHWEST AND COULD BEGIN CONSOLIDATION WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

NAVGEM



CMC

[euro6208]

EURO

[euro6208]

TXPQ26 KNES 201506
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92W)

B. 20/1430Z

C. 6.2N

D. 144.2E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS

H. REMARKS....2/10 BANDING FOR DT=1.0. MET=1.0. PT=1.0. FT IS BASED
ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

20/0903Z 5.8N 145.0E SSMIS


...LEE

[euro6208]

EURO and GFS agrees on a track that will take this passing Northern Samar and slams it into Albay and Sorsogon Province on Christmas Day.

EURO is stronger now brings a possible high end TS into the area, GFS 970's mb...

[euro6208]

NWS

The main focus of significant weather remains the circulation
southeast of Yap near 6N143E. Deep convection remains displaced to
the west and north due to strong east winds aloft. This circulation
will continue to move to the west-northwest the next couple of days,
passing near Yap sometime Thursday. Winds will increase additionally
at Yap tonight with showers and thunderstorms increasing as the
system approaches. Models differ on how well organized this
circulation will be at the time of nearest approach. Continued strong
shear aloft will help to limit its organization in the short term,
but this system could become a depression later this week.

[1900hurricane]

I'm still waiting for some consistency and supporting ASCAT evidence, but 92W may already be close to becoming a tropical depression.

[1900hurricane]

Visible imagery seems to show a closed circulation center.

[1900hurricane]

Looks like JMA is expecting Nock-Ten in 24 hours or so.

TD
Issued at 01:30 UTC, 21 December 2016

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 21 December>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N6°20' (6.3°)
E142°25' (142.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 21 December>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N7°00' (7.0°)
E140°30' (140.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 22 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N7°55' (7.9°)
E138°30' (138.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

[Alyono]

ASCAT shows it is nearly a TS now

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Where would this hit?? I'm worried if ever it would hit my place on Christmas eve. The models show a Luzon hit despite the STR, but we'll never know for sure.

[1900hurricane]

Yeah, looks pretty good. Definitely a depression.

[Alyono]

18Z MU had 95 kts at Luzon, which would equate to about 125 kts

[ManilaTC]

JTWC upgrades 92W to Tropical Depression 30W, with the storm making landfall over Bicol and Southern Luzon by Christmas day as a 75kt Typhoon.